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Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Viator
  • Start date Start date Nov 6, 2017
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Paulio

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #241
Nick C. said:
It's not the quality of the film we're talking about here. The Worldwide box office has gone down considerably with every movie with the most recent F4 pulling in less than $170M WORLDWIDE. There's no reason to believe that just because Universal does a F4 film it would make money.
Click to expand...

I mean, the quality of the film means you're bound to make a lot of money with good advertisement and word-of-mouth. I'm saying I don't see how Universal handling the F4 any more different than Sony and Fox and if it's good like Logan and Deadpool, then it's guaranteed to make money. It's just unfortunate Fox had some crappy writers and directors who were clueless about the F4 franchise. Unless Disney could alter the plans, the Dr. Doom movie is still in development after all and Constantin Film may have to sign with a new distributor with Disney or they won't and find somewhere else. Anything's possible.

zg44 said:
I mean if it comes down to franchises, the reality is that most franchises are tired or played out..., what will happen to Star Wars in 10 years? What will happen to Marvel post-Infinity Wars when RDJ walks away?

Of course, those franchises won't die, but there will be serious fatigue, just as there is in Disney's own Pirates of the Caribbean. Harry Potter's Fantastic Beasts movies aren't quite as strong as the main series.

Disney itself isn't immune to franchise fatigue, it's just that they were smart to realize that Marvel and Lucasfilm had 2 major franchises/universes that hadn't been exploited in a significant fashion yet. The MCU works because it's a clean/fresh script that could be filled by RDJ and the rest. That won't be the case for the post-Thanos phases which will operate in a world where it's "already been done" and they're trying to carry a weighty franchise forward. A lot of the reason why things like GotG or Doctor Strange work is that they feel fresh compared to previous superhero movies.

That's one of the main reasons why the DCEU has largely failed... because Superman and Batman in particular have already received a large number of live action films and coming off of the Nolan trilogy, it was going to be hard to have that same impact with a new batman. They could only sell the "ensemble" idea one time before Justice League came and flopped. Sure they should have done a much better job of building up the universe with more introductory movies for Flash and Aquaman even before Batman vs Superman, but we'll have to see how well superhero movies hold up in the longer run once the first set of Avengers retires.

Rebooting X-Men isn't guaranteed to be successful either; I think it will work at some level to plug the hole of heroes leaving, but Fox has exploited that series pretty heavily the past 20 years and will go out with a last hurrah of a bunch of movies this upcoming year. Disney will have to be careful to weave it in in an interesting way similar to Spiderman Homecoming.

All of that said, franchises still have long-term value like Spiderman or James Bond or others. They can still be carried forward, but there's never a guarantee, that's a part of the reason why Fox is getting out of the business.

Universal's best shot at a major new franchise in the mid/longer run is these Nintendo rights if they can make that animated movie a big hit.
Click to expand...

Disney has 26.09% market where the rest of the other big five members are lower than the 20% number, meaning they hire good directors and writers, but it does come with high-demands and ways none of the other studios have that luxury for. Universal-Nintendo animated movie deal is still a licensing deal, which is a common trend for Universal in both the film and theme park arena. It's no different than Disney having to license the video game characters for the Wreck-It-Ralph movie, and Disney isn't keen on getting 3rd world properties for their own movies and make a lot of money using its own IPs than to share money with a 3rd party company. As some people said here, I rather that Universal develop its own IPs rather than to have 3rd party companies, but nowadays, as I stated, that seems really hard for most studios except Disney.
 
Viator

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #242
From WSJ

Disney Finalizing Pact to Acquire Assets from 21st Century Fox - WSJ
 
Nick

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #243
As much as people are clamoring to see Wolverine fight Captain America or something like that, this is a great deal for the Murdochs. Disney is taking a risk that Fox's extensive back catalog and Television portfolio will help them in their streaming quest and that the RSN's will make ESPN a viable business again.

Meanwhile, the Murdoch's are keeping their Broadcast channel, Fox News and Fox Sports as well as becoming the #1 highest owner of Disney stock in the process at around 5% and getting a seat on Disney's BoD. Disney needs to watch their back.
 
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zg44

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #244
Nick C. said:
As much as people are clamoring to see Wolverine fight Captain America or something like that, this is a great deal for the Murdochs. Disney is taking a risk that Fox's extensive back catalog and Television portfolio will help them in their streaming quest and that the RSN's will make ESPN a viable business again.

Meanwhile, the Murdoch's are keeping their Broadcast channel, Fox News and Fox Sports as well as becoming the #1 highest owner of Disney stock in the process at around 5% and getting a seat on Disney's BoD. Disney needs to watch their back.
Click to expand...
I do think the one area where there may be at least some antitrust questions is the RSNs.

Disney may argue that sports rights are competitive, but combining their current rights ownership with the Fox RSNs gives them far more rights than they have now, and they already control more sports rights than anyone else before that sale.

That more than even the studios is where I think DoJ will ask questions.
 
Nick

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #245
Goodness, the new valuation of the deal is at $75B

Disney deal set to value Fox at more than $75 billion: source | Reuters
 
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quinnmac000

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #246
Nick C. said:
Goodness, the new valuation of the deal is at $75B

Disney deal set to value Fox at more than $75 billion: source | Reuters
Click to expand...

Under the terms of the all-stock deal, Fox assets that will be sold to Disney, including the Twentieth Century Fox movie and TV studio, cable networks and international operations will be valued at around $29 per share, the source said on Wednesday.
Click to expand...

Murdoch definitely won this deal more so than Disney.
 
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  • #247
quinnmac000 said:
Murdoch definitely won this deal more so than Disney.
Click to expand...
Depends how much Disney capitalizes on what they are buying. This is certainly a good deal for the Murdoch's no matter what, it's a risk for Disney.

Disney actually has a lot to lose after this deal. With all the content that they have now and the RSNs to go with ESPN, if their streaming services aren't a massive success, people will automatically start to question this deal. The deal is obviously good from the perspective of giving Disney more of an international reach, adding X-Men to the MCU, getting majority ownership of Hulu, etc, etc.

This is mostly a content acquisition though, so as I said, if Disney's streaming services aren't a success after this, they'll have a problem on their hands.
 
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zg44

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #248
Nick C. said:
Goodness, the new valuation of the deal is at $75B

Disney deal set to value Fox at more than $75 billion: source | Reuters
Click to expand...
quinnmac000 said:
Murdoch definitely won this deal more so than Disney.
Click to expand...
2 big pieces of information the past couple of days are that Fox will likely keep the Fox lot in Hollywood (for its sports studio), and more importantly, Fox will likely transfer all or nearly all of its $10-15 billion debt to Disney as part of this deal.

That second piece is a huge win for Murdoch, it means he can have a clean balance sheet and easily raise debt to take "New Fox" private. If New Fox has a clean balance sheet ($0 debt) and a value around $20 billion, all he has to do is just raise around $16 billion to buy out the other shareholders in New Fox; it'd be very similar to what Michael Dell did when he took Dell private.

That's a very easy thing for him to do. He might even just combine it with News Corp before taking it private. He could use his $10 billion in Disney shares as collateral for the transaction or he could exchange his Disney stock + $6 billion cash for the $16 billion in New Fox shares he doesn't own. Lots of interesting things going on for the Murdochs here.
 
Nick

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zg44 said:
2 big pieces of information the past couple of days are that Fox will likely keep the Fox lot in Hollywood (for its sports studio), and more importantly, Fox will likely transfer all or nearly all of its $10-15 billion debt to Disney as part of this deal.

That second piece is a huge win for Murdoch, it means he can have a clean balance sheet and easily raise debt to take "New Fox" private. If New Fox has a clean balance sheet ($0 debt) and a value around $20 billion, all he has to do is just raise around $16 billion to buy out the other shareholders in New Fox; it'd be very similar to what Michael Dell did when he took Dell private.

That's a very easy thing for him to do. He might even just combine it with News Corp before taking it private. He could use his $10 billion in Disney shares as collateral for the transaction or he could exchange his Disney stock + $6 billion cash for the $16 billion in New Fox shares he doesn't own. Lots of interesting things going on for the Murdochs here.
Click to expand...
Yeah, they're saying it's almost a definite that he's going to combine it with NewsCorp.
 
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  • #250
Nick C. said:
Yeah, they're saying it's almost a definite that he's going to combine it with NewsCorp.
Click to expand...
The way this transaction is structured (designed to send $9-10 billion in Disney stock to the Murdoch Trust), makes me think they may not be long-term holders in Disney.

If you're Murdoch, would you rather own $5 billion in News Corp/New Fox stock and $9-10 billion in Disney, or would you rather just sell the Disney shares and use that to take News Corp/New Fox private (maybe in a simple exchange like I said above where he offers his Disney stock + cash to the other shareholders).

It sounds like a really easy/tax-free way for him to take the remainder of Fox/News Corp private and exit Disney in a simple transaction.
 
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  • #251
 
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  • #252
Nick C. said:
Click to expand...

That would require the price to come down significantly. The regional sports networks are the most valuable part of the deal. If they're not included the price should go down at least $15 billion.
 
Viator

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #253
Nick C. said:
Click to expand...


:whistle:
 
Parkscope Joe

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  • Dec 13, 2017
  • #254
Nick C. said:
Meanwhile, the Murdoch's are keeping their Broadcast channel, Fox News and Fox Sports as well as becoming the #1 highest owner of Disney stock in the process at around 5% and getting a seat on Disney's BoD. Disney needs to watch their back.
Click to expand...

This is what I meant when it'd seem more like Fox taking over Disney than the other way around. This is bad.
 
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zg44

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Just let it play out, I'm skeptical that Murdoch wants to have more money invested in Disney than his own businesses.

That News Corp/New Fox merger and private equity style buyout would probably require them to sell out of Disney to accomplish.

I think Murdochs will prioritize that project over holding Disney shares for the long term.

The Murdochs are playing a 2 step game. This deal with Disney is only step 1.
 
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Paulio

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  • Dec 14, 2017
  • #256
Holy freaking moly, $75 billion?!!!!!!
 
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Viator

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  • Dec 14, 2017
  • #257


52 Billion.

Edit: Press Release.

The Walt Disney Company To Acquire Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc., After Spinoff Of Certain Businesses, For $52.4 Billion In Stock - The Walt Disney Company
 
Last edited: Dec 14, 2017
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zg44

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  • Dec 14, 2017
  • #258
Disney to buy Fox film, TV businesses for $52.4 billion in stock | Reuters
Disney will also assume about $13.7 billion of net debt of 21st Century Fox.

$52.4 billion stock + $13.7 billion debt = $66.1 billion total value


So yeah this is a huge win for the Murdochs. They get to completely clear the debts off Fox. Fox currently has $7 billion cash and $19 billion debt. In one move this completely clears their balance sheet to somewhere around a positive net cash position (more cash than debt).

This sets New Fox up with a valution around $20-23 billion and the easy ability to raise new debt to take over News Corp and go private if Murdochs want to sell out of Disney and take complete control of New Fox+News Corp.

Iger paid a very full value for these assets; at least 90-100% higher than market treats them as worth based on Fox's stock price before this.

Market treated these Fox assets as being worth around $30-35 billion before Iger approached Fox (Fox market cap before this was $47 billion). Now Disney is basically paying double that.
 
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MattA

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  • Dec 14, 2017
  • #259
Welp, there goes my hopes and dreams of a Kingsman layover on MIB. :'(
 
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ThemeParks4Life

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  • Dec 14, 2017
  • #260
Disney Sets Deal To Acquire Most Of Fox In Game-Changing Hollywood Merger | Deadline

Noteworthy points:
Iger will be CEO until 2021 :bang:
James Murdoch might become head of Television.
The main studio and Searchlight should remain largely intact. The TV networks on the other hand are trickier to forecast.
 
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