Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[Nick]

After what's just happened with Solo, I think Rupert may be more willing to fully cash out...

By the time we get around to Comcast putting up a bid though, The Incredibles 2 will have dominated theaters with Ant-Man & the Wasp either ready or already doing big business.

Can’t judge a company by one movie.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

By the time we get around to Comcast putting up a bid though, The Incredibles 2 will have dominated theaters with Ant-Man & the Wasp either ready or already doing big business.

Can’t judge a company by one movie.

It might be one movie, but we are talking a flop in one of Disney's biggest franchises.

 

[zg44]

By the time we get around to Comcast putting up a bid though, The Incredibles 2 will have dominated theaters with Ant-Man & the Wasp either ready or already doing big business.

Can’t judge a company by one movie.

You certainly can't, and while Disney will certainly be the most successful studio for the next couple of years at least, I think Solo does end the notion that Disney has removed all of the risks from the film business with their blockbuster driven model.

There's a reason why so many media moguls have been selling their assets over the past couple of years as tech companies have dramatically changed the business of delivering content to eyeballs.

Disney will definitely still be the strongest branded entertainment company either way, but there's a reason why a guy like Rupert who's been a buyer of media assets for 4 decades has finally changed his mind and decided to sell, and that reason is he sees how much more risky the business is becoming as the tech companies have become more and more successful at redefining how consumers obtain content.

 

[quinnmac000]

By the time we get around to Comcast putting up a bid though, The Incredibles 2 will have dominated theaters with Ant-Man & the Wasp either ready or already doing big business.

Can’t judge a company by one movie.

Not just about the domestic though but international. But you are right, you can't judge a company by one movie but you can based on long term trend analysis (Pixar's lineup has consistently been mostly sequels rather than new IPs, same with Marvel, same with Star Wars....if any of those get majorly tainted with scandal etc....there goes that money. If you look at a lot of other Disney upcoming films, they have been pushed to the streaming site.)

The biggest reason against the Comcast deal is the amount of cash leads to a potential tax hit due to capital gains limit but they get that money then and there. The issue with Disney is stocks are volatile and if a world recession hits, there goes your stock value for awhile.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

By the time we get around to Comcast putting up a bid though, The Incredibles 2 will have dominated theaters with Ant-Man & the Wasp either ready or already doing big business.

Can’t judge a company by one movie.

I agree you can't judge a company by one movie, Disney's had WAY WORSE failures recently (Mars Needs Moms, John Carter, Lone Ranger).

But also they won't have to wait for either of those releases as Comcast is putting in a bit Wednesday

 

[zg44]

Comcast to win unconditional EU okay for Sky bid: sources | Reuters

Another piece falls into place; Comcast will be able to bid for Sky without conditions.

The only piece left is the AT&T-TW merger decision on Tuesday. Then the bidding war can get under way if there's no major asset sales required by the judge for AT&T-TW.

 

[zg44]

CNBC's David Faber saying that Comcast would probably bid on Wednesday if there's no major asset sales required for AT&T-TimeWarner on Tuesday.

Either way, the next 2 days will be huge for all media companies.

 

[quinnmac000]

Brian Roberts Says Comcast In “Advanced Stages” Of Preparing An Offer For Fox | Deadline

 

[quinnmac000]

Plot twist, it is speculated that so much time has gone between the AT&T-Time Warner deal, they may see if someone else wants to bid for them in the event that the deal is approved....

AT&T-Time Warner Merger: Insiders Await Judge’s Ruling – Variety

 

[Viator]

 

[Paulio]

I freaking know it!

 

[Mad Dog]

Approved with no conditions......Now it's The Wild Wild West time.

 

[zg44]

Comcast is going to release their offer tomorrow for the Fox assets, I'd guess. This is it; the big battle for Fox assets starts now.

 

[Paulio]

Oh baby, this is getting just more interesting, the DOJ has NO case, especially the way the Trump administration acting lately, it's no wonder why the judge did not give into their twisted reasoning.

 

[zg44]

Hard to understate how great this is for Comcast. Comcast can go all in for the Fox assets and Sky.

I'd expect Fox to cancel their Disney shareholder vote within days if Comcast goes public tomorrow.

I think Comcast is the favorite now for the Fox assets.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Hard to understate how great this is for Comcast. Comcast can go all in for the Fox assets and Sky.

I'd expect Fox to cancel their Disney shareholder vote within days if Comcast goes public tomorrow.

I think Comcast is the favorite now for the Fox assets.

1.) More competition is good, consolidation with either Disney or Comcast is bad.
2.) This is going to be interesting to follow

 

[zg44]

1.) More competition is good, consolidation with either Disney or Comcast is bad.
2.) This is going to be interesting to follow

If this was 5 years ago I think I'd agree with you and the court would probably as well.

But Netflix and Amazon Prime are two of the largest studios in the world now. Amazon took the 2nd most popular show in the UK in Grand Tour; they're spending over a billion on a LOTR TV show. Netflix releases 100 movies in a year now along with dozens of major tv shows. They were extremely tiny just 10 years ago.

The market has changed so much that I don't think NBCU can survive in an era where Netflix/Amazon Prime/Google Youtube TV/Facebook Watch are their major competitors.

I don't think any major media company is well equipped to fight off the tech giants without mergers.

Disney and Comcast are both too small in terms of media assets in particular. Within 5-10 years, I think the major tech companies will start bidding on sports tv rights; that's when the cable/paytv bundle will break apart. NBCU is extremely vulnerable if that happens. Disney slightly less so due to their current content mix, but both need more assets imo.

 

[Galaxy Defender]

Disney stock is currently down about 1.5% in after hours trading.

Universal stock was up 1.28% in regular trading end of day but dropped over 3.5% in after hours trading. Not sure why that happened.

 

[DK745]

1.) More competition is good, consolidation with either Disney or Comcast is bad.
2.) This is going to be interesting to follow

I'd rather Fox not go to either but Fox wants to sell so there's not much you can do about it. In that case I'd rather see them end up with Comcast.

 

[zg44]

Disney stock is currently down about 1.5% in after hours trading.

Universal stock was up 1.28% in regular trading end of day but dropped over 3.5% in after hours trading. Not sure why that happened.

Bidding war is upon us. Expectations are that they'll have to offer more $ to win the Fox assets, so both Disney and Comcast stock are falling.

Fox stock is up after hours.

I assume tomorrow will be the Comcast bid announcement.