General Discussion - Hagrid's Magical Creature Motorbike Adventure

[UniversalRBLX]

Express was added to Hagrid's in May last year. The timeline doesn’t support Express being the root cause. The highest spike occurs when JPRA goes down, which removes a major people-eater from IOA. On top of that, we can't just outright ignore that we’re in a Northeast school break window right off the heels of a big holiday weekend.

We've been seeing the impact on Hagrid way before JPRA closed down (see quote below from July).

Hagrid's Average Wait
May 30th, 2024 to End of Year: 84
May 30th, 2025 to End of Year: 118 (41% increase)

VelociCoaster Average Wait
May 30th, 2024 to End of Year: 59
May 30th, 2025 to End of Year: 50 (15% decrease)

I echo your same thoughts, which is why I was hoping they'd modify the express use for this attraction to limit the number of guests able to utilize it. No one wins from the express line clogging up everything after 4PM with APs. I'm ok with express on this attraction if they limited access to it.

Disney's a lot better now, but I don't think Universal is as egregious as WDW was a few years ago... they just have two attractions (Velo & Hagrid) they need to adjust express procedures for.

EDIT - JULY UPDATE: Hagrid's wait-time increased by +28% in July compared to last year. (Avg. this year is 104 versus 81 last year

Other UOR Attractions for Comparison...

• Forbidden Journey down 17%
• VelociCoaster down 24%
• Skull Island up 13%
• Spider-Man up 2%
• Hulk down 5%
• Ripsaw Falls down 12%
• The Cat in the Hat down 25%
• High in the Sky down 17%
• Revenge of the Mummy down 17%
• ET Adventure down 6%
• Gringotts up 3%
• Rockit up 37%
• Minion Blast down 53%
• Minion Mayhem down 24%

Avg. Crowd Level down 24% for USF, 18% down for IOA

I know wait-times are not the sole indicator... but it's pretty clear Express Pass has made Hagrid's a far worse queue experience for standby.

*Data according to TouringPlans

Removing Express might make standby move a bit faster per hour, but it doesn’t change Hagrid’s capacity/demand. It's still a big reason people wake up at the crack of dawn for IOA's EPA (along with VelociCoaster). You’d likely still see long waits, just without the premium options that support hotels that @Clive mentioned.

Capacity is rigid, but now it's favoring express pass users. So standby guests now have less capacity dedicated to them as they see unlimited express pass holders ride Hagrid (some multiple times) and then get "penalized" again after the 4PM passholders arrive.

Not saying there shouldn't be express at all, but there's obviously a ridiculous amount of people utilizing the system. More than the attraction can comfortable handle.

 

[Hatetofly]

Also something to consider with skip the line passes is that there are levels. Those levels are dependent on crowd levels, pass distribution rates, downtimes etc. So you could have one level that is 5 groups of skip the line for every one group of stand bye or 10 groups of skip for every 3 groups of stand bye thus impacting both sets of wait times.

 

[Jake S]

Isn't it just a given that adding Express increases the wait of the standby queue in the same way that having a FastPass/Lightning Lane/Whatever queue inherently increases the wait of the standby queue? You've got the same amount of capacity that's now being split between two lines with one line being given priority over the other.

I agree that Express for any attraction should not be unlimited, but I also understand why Universal isn't eager to claw back any of the perks it's offering to hotel guests.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Isn't it just a given that adding Express increases the wait of the standby queue in the same way that having a FastPass/Lightning Lane/Whatever queue inherently increases the wait of the standby queue? You've got the same amount of capacity that's now being split between two lines with one line being given priority over the other.

Not inherently, but consider it lowers the balk point of waiting it does “add” more guests that way. In an ideal world folks would ride equally if they had express or not.

 

[Brian G.]

We've been seeing the impact on Hagrid way before JPRA closed down (see quote below from July).

Hagrid's Average Wait
May 30th, 2024 to End of Year: 84
May 30th, 2025 to End of Year: 118 (41% increase)

VelociCoaster Average Wait
May 30th, 2024 to End of Year: 59
May 30th, 2025 to End of Year: 50 (15% decrease)




Capacity is rigid, but now it's favoring express pass users. So standby guests now have less capacity dedicated to them as they see unlimited express pass holders ride Hagrid (some multiple times) and then get "penalized" again after the 4PM passholders arrive.

Not saying there shouldn't be express at all, but there's obviously a ridiculous amount of people utilizing the system. More than the attraction can comfortable handle.

I’m not saying Express isn’t a factor. It obviously impacts standby flow. But, again, I don’t think we can point to Express as the root cause of it.

For one, comparing 2024 vs 2025 is a small sample size, especially when 2025 is the first full season with Epic Universe in the mix. That changes vacation patterns, multi-day stays, and how people plan their attack. If we’re trying to isolate Express as the main driver, we probably need to look at data going back to 2021 when Hagrid and VelociCoaster have both been operating together consistently.

Second, VelociCoaster has always had stronger hourly throughput than Hagrid. VC can chew through people more efficiently, so even the slightest increase in demand hits Hagrid harder than it would VC. That alone can create different averages without Express being the sole culprit.

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but your own chart kind of supports that: the biggest spike happens right when JPRA is down. If you look at the highest peak of the rolling average from 2021 to Oct-Nov 2025, it's back in 2022. The rolling average never gets past that high mark until the Holiday Season 2025, about 6 months after Express is added, and then gets blown out in the New Year... when JPRA goes down.

If Express was the "trigger", the biggest jump should’ve happened right when Express was added. Instead, the worst peak lines up with a major capacity loss elsewhere in the park.

So yeah, Express does contribute to AN increase, as that is a side effect of the benefit; but the recent extremes look like a combo of demand surges along with reduced park capacity. Blaming Express alone feels like oversimplifying what’s clearly a multi-factor situation.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I’m not saying Express isn’t a factor. It obviously impacts standby flow. But, again, I don’t think we can point to Express as the root cause of it.

For one, comparing 2024 vs 2025 is a small sample size, especially when 2025 is the first full season with Epic Universe in the mix. That changes vacation patterns, multi-day stays, and how people plan their attack. If we’re trying to isolate Express as the main driver, we probably need to look at data going back to 2021 when Hagrid and VelociCoaster have both been operating together consistently.

Second, VelociCoaster has always had stronger hourly throughput than Hagrid. VC can chew through people more efficiently, so even the slightest increase in demand hits Hagrid harder than it would VC. That alone can create different averages without Express being the sole culprit.

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but your own chart kind of supports that: the biggest spike happens right when JPRA is down. If you look at the highest peak of the rolling average from 2021 to Oct-Nov 2025, it's back in 2022. The rolling average never gets past that high mark until the Holiday Season 2025, about 6 months after Express is added, and then gets blown out in the New Year... when JPRA goes down.

If Express was the "trigger", the biggest jump should’ve happened right when Express was added. Instead, the worst peak lines up with a major capacity loss elsewhere in the park.

So yeah, Express does contribute to AN increase, as that is a side effect of the benefit; but the recent extremes look like a combo of demand surges along with reduced park capacity. Blaming Express alone feels like oversimplifying what’s clearly a multi-factor situation.

This assumes comparisons are being made on actual wait times, too, not the estimated posted. Sometimes, when you dive into too much data, you don't find anything; you just get noise. What if the data is showing Hagrid's waits are too inflated compared to actuals? What if Velocicoaster is underestimated (a whole other issue).

I'll ask another question: why is ok that Disney is factoring in LL purchases into new attraction development but Universal can't with Express?

 

[UniversalRBLX]

If Express was the "trigger", the biggest jump should’ve happened right when Express was added. Instead, the worst peak lines up with a major capacity loss elsewhere in the park.

But it did? We saw express jump by 34% in June, the first full month it included express. Average of 86 went up to 115.

Hagrid in Nov-Dec timeline has had an average wait-time higher in 2025 then it did back when it was unreliable and brand-new in 2029:

This assumes comparisons are being made on actual wait times, too, not the estimated posted. Sometimes, when you dive into too much data, you don't find anything; you just get noise. What if the data is showing Hagrid's waits are too inflated compared to actuals? What if Velocicoaster is underestimated (a whole other issue).

Is it ok for Universal to over inflate waits to deter standby guests so they can comfortably handle express passes?

I'll ask another question: why is ok that Disney is factoring in LL purchases into new attraction development but Universal can't with Express?

Who says that's ok? The CFO? I don't think anyone should be championing such an idea .

 

[Hatetofly]

I’m not saying Express isn’t a factor. It obviously impacts standby flow. But, again, I don’t think we can point to Express as the root cause of it.

For one, comparing 2024 vs 2025 is a small sample size, especially when 2025 is the first full season with Epic Universe in the mix. That changes vacation patterns, multi-day stays, and how people plan their attack. If we’re trying to isolate Express as the main driver, we probably need to look at data going back to 2021 when Hagrid and VelociCoaster have both been operating together consistently.

Second, VelociCoaster has always had stronger hourly throughput than Hagrid. VC can chew through people more efficiently, so even the slightest increase in demand hits Hagrid harder than it would VC. That alone can create different averages without Express being the sole culprit.

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but your own chart kind of supports that: the biggest spike happens right when JPRA is down. If you look at the highest peak of the rolling average from 2021 to Oct-Nov 2025, it's back in 2022. The rolling average never gets past that high mark until the Holiday Season 2025, about 6 months after Express is added, and then gets blown out in the New Year... when JPRA goes down.

If Express was the "trigger", the biggest jump should’ve happened right when Express was added. Instead, the worst peak lines up with a major capacity loss elsewhere in the park.

So yeah, Express does contribute to AN increase, as that is a side effect of the benefit; but the recent extremes look like a combo of demand surges along with reduced park capacity. Blaming Express alone feels like oversimplifying what’s clearly a multi-factor situation.

Very interested to see if Universal abandons the moving walkway going forward on all coasters. Not sure about the Fast coasters but it seems like maybe a standard dual load station with the way Universal hustles ops may be the play. The crew on platform at VC is half the size (it seems) and is able to outperform an automated system. I’m sure they’re restrictions at Hagrids like moving walkway speeds, block sections, and those who cannot transfer via a moving walkway well that impact it but regardless a manned crew outperforming an automated system in impressive.

 

[Brian G.]

But it did? We saw express jump by 34% in June, the first full month it included express. Average of 86 went up to 115.

Hagrid in Nov-Dec timeline has had an average wait-time higher in 2025 then it did back when it was unreliable and brand-new in 2029:
View attachment 29030

Andrew, this is the chart you posted (I added the line)

Where is the biggest jump?

I think what keeps happening in these discussions is you're latching onto one data point and building the entire conclusion around it. Even though it may be an accurate and logical data point, everything else gets filtered through that lens. Problem is - this isn’t a controlled experiment, and we're missing A LOT of useful data.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

Andrew, this is the chart you posted (I added the line)View attachment 29031

Where is the biggest jump?

Yes the largest jump is during the holiday season, but the increase in waits started May 30th 2025. Compared to the same time in the previous year, you will notice that the wait is higher than what it was the year prior. Look at the entire 2nd half of 2025 and how it compared to 2023 and 2024.

June 2025 is higher than June 2024.
July 2025 is higher than July 2024.
August 2025 is higher than August 2024.
And so on...

I think what keeps happening in these discussions is you're latching onto one data point and building the entire conclusion around it. Even though it may be an accurate and logical data point, everything else gets filtered through that lens. Problem is - this isn’t a controlled experiment, and we're missing A LOT of useful data.

I'm not trying to latch onto one single data point at all to prove my point. I have no interest in that at all. And yes, there's a lot of data to reference... and I'm currently working on gathering all that) but right now the best we have is an estimated capacity number and somewhat publicly available wait-time data.

 

[Mad Dog]

One other point. When a guest has hotel pass (unlimited), some will ride a hard to get on attraction multiple times, instead of just once if they were standing in long stand by line. Example; When I had hotel express, I rode Hagrids multiple times some days. So when that happens, the number of total riders in line for a day is more than the number of individual guests. So that also leads to longer stand by lines..

A similar thing was happening at WDW when the disability fraud was getting out of hand. There were large groups of more than half a dozen lingers on the disability pass going on the real good E ticket rides many multiple times. That killed the stand by lines. Since WDW eliminated much of the fraud, their stand by times have decreased dramatically, making the parks pretty easy to tour during non holiday times, even without a lightening lane pass.

Hagrids is just always going to have long stand by lines, even more so since Express.

 

[Brian G.]

Yes the largest jump is during the holiday season, but the increase in waits started May 30th 2025. Compared to the same time in the previous year, you will notice that the wait is higher than what it was the year prior. Look at the entire 2nd half of 2025 and how it compared to 2023 and 2024.

June 2025 is higher than June 2024.
July 2025 is higher than July 2024.
August 2025 is higher than August 2024.
And so on...



I'm not trying to latch onto one single data point at all to prove my point. I have no interest in that at all. And yes, there's a lot of data to reference... and I'm currently working on gathering all that) but right now the best we have is an estimated capacity number and somewhat publicly available wait-time data.

Again, a year-over-year comparison is tough because it doesn't take into account the Epic Universe addition affecting vacations as well as other factors here.

Again, Express does contribute to AN increase, as that is a side effect of the benefit; but the recent extremes look like a combo of demand, Epic's opening, along with reduced park capacity. Blaming Express alone feels like oversimplifying what’s clearly a multi-factor situation.

But this is what you originally posted:

I know the resort is busy this week, but this has become a common occurrence since express was added.

I really think this attraction should have express removed entirely and replaced with an individual one time purchase with limited availability.

The data you've provided indicates it is not a common occurrence but an outlier, yet you used that to argue for the complete removal of a popular benefit. No one argued that there wasn't AN increase, just that the biggest increase comes at a time when the park is missing a marquee ride. The Holiday spike, we also have to take into account Forbidden Journey's 2-week closure, because the rolling average dips down rightaround the reopening.

 

[Jake S]

Yeah, I think it's clear (and I think we all agree) adding Express to Hagrid's has led to increased wait times. It seems that what we're arguing about is severity — how much did those wait times actually increase and then how much of that blame can be apportioned to Express vs. other factors (Jurassic Park closing, Epic Universe opening, etc.). I'm not sure we can definitively apportion that blame with publicly available data.

Anyway, the lines for Hagrid's are long. I wish they were shorter because I like it just fine ... but it's my wife's favorite ride in the resort. So, you know. We're riding Hagrid's. I also wish theme parks didn't sell Express Passes for a whole host of reasons but, again, these are the times we live in.

 

[TheCodeMan95]

Maybe we can finally get Brian vs RBLX at Wrestlemania this year?

 

[Brian G.]

Maybe we can finally get Brian vs RBLX at Wrestlemania this year?

Too expensive.

 

[UniversalRBLX]

Again, a year-over-year comparison is tough because it doesn't take into account the Epic Universe addition affecting vacations as well as other factors here.

Again, Express does contribute to AN increase, as that is a side effect of the benefit; but the recent extremes look like a combo of demand, Epic's opening, along with reduced park capacity. Blaming Express alone feels like oversimplifying what’s clearly a multi-factor situation.

For sure there are a lot of potential impacts, but I do want to point out that the overall capacity of IOA during the summer of 2025 (Jun-Aug) was the exact same in 2024, and the park's overall wait-times remained flat to the previous year. Hagrid being the singular exception. You can see that most of the average posted waits at IOA remained the same.


This will be my last comment until I can find more data, but waits being flat to the previous year at IOA for all other major attractions signal to me that Express was likely the major reason for increased wait-times. Capacity to the previous year was the same. Epic Universe didn't seem to change crowd patterns at IOA.

 

[Hatetofly]

I think we can all agree that 2025 is a year Universal would like to improve upon operationally and just go from there lol

 

[OrlandoGuy]

This will be my last comment until I can find more data, but waits being flat to the previous year at IOA for all other major attractions signal to me that Express was likely the major reason for increased wait-times. Capacity to the previous year was the same. Epic Universe didn't seem to change crowd patterns at IOA.

I dont care about this one way or another because I don’t have a Premier Pass and I don’t really think Hagrid’s is all that great, but I have to chime in because this is driving me crazy.

What you have to do to prove your point here is measure the delta in seasonal wait time increases pre- and post-Express implementation (not sheer wait time averages in Dec ‘22 vs Dec ‘25 for example, but the percentage jump between Nov-Dec ‘22 and the percentage jump between Nov-Dec ‘25). Then same with each instance of major refurbishment, opening of major new attraction (although off the top of my head I dont know if there have been any since Velocicoaster), etc.

You’ll never get full context with numbers alone, but you can work your numbers backwards into context by taking relative numbers over absolute values.

You have a knack for putting together visuals based on limited info (I actually don’t even know where you’re getting this info). You’d be unstoppable if you found more ways to tell the story with your numbers.

 

[Brian G.]

What you have to do to prove your point here is measure the delta in seasonal wait time increases pre- and post-Express implementation (not sheer wait time averages in Dec ‘22 vs Dec ‘25 for example, but the percentage jump between Nov-Dec ‘22 and the percentage jump between Nov-Dec ‘25). Then same with each instance of major refurbishment, opening of major new attraction (although off the top of my head I dont know if there have been any since Velocicoaster), etc.

Let’s keep the discussion focused and avoid unnecessary sarcastic shots, whether it was aimed at RLBX or me.

 

[Mad Dog]

I thought that with Epic opening, and a couple of high powered new attractions there, that Hagrid's allure/demand would diminish a bit and wait times would go down, since it would no longer be the powerful fairly new kid on the block. Boy, was I wrong. If anything, it's more in demand than ever, even with the new maintenance area probably helping capacity....................It's big time rival at WDW, ROTR, that opened up at around the same time to similar huge demand, has come down to earth a lot, with pretty decent regular stand by times in non holiday periods. But Hagrid stays up there, King of the Demand Castle. (Note: ROTR has a bit better capacity, but probably still more downtime issues)