Bob Iger Returns/Disney CEO Thread (2022)

[Nick]

I think the question becomes what does Hulu come with because it has to keep the valuation. If Disney takes it as well as all the content while Comcast is stuck with just the name is it worth it? Does comcast get to keep the franchise and ip rights of Hulu originals? There has to be something more of value outside just the streaming service especially with the price tag Hulu has.

Original content doesn't just disappear and usually takes 5-7 years to revert back to it's original owner. But that's just fair game at that point. If Comcast decides to buy Hulu, they are doing it knowing the originals category is a bunch of Disney produced and The Handmaids's Tale among some other things. Disney. isn't just going to essentially sell their content to them. They can give assurances that the originals will be there for at least five years after cancellation, but If Comcast starts getting unreasonable and asking for sale of content, then it suddenly becomes not worth it to sell to Comcast. Disney has options and can shop around.

 

[tielo]

Comcast is in the position to be "unreasonable" (whatever that means) as Disney finances are as mismanaged as their theme park division. I expect Comcast to sell their shares and get some additional Fox ip's as an extra in return.

 

[Nick]

Comcast is in the position to be "unreasonable" (whatever that means) as Disney finances are as mismanaged as their theme park division

I have no definition of what "unreasonable" means. It's ultimately what Disney decides it to be. Like I said, Disney doesn't have to sell it to Comcast, they actually don't have to sell at all. But the point is, they have options and can sell it to say, an investment firm where Hulu will go to sit on a shelf and see little investment. If that means Disney is getting a better deal though monetarily, then Disney may not care.

The only reason Comcast would even want Hulu really is for the Hulu name along with its subscriber base of almost 50 million paid users, whereas Peacock only has 20 million paid users. But is that worth the tens of billions it would cost them? If i'm comcast, I offer up the distribution rights in return of bringing down the overall price tag that Comcast would be spending, then get everything in writing that Disney isn't going to pull a fast one and take all of their content off before Comcast owns it. Something like "any Disney produced Hulu originals must stay on Hulu until 5 years after a show's last episode has aired". Same for movies. Every 20th Century and Searchlight Hulu Original would have to stay on the service until at least 5 years after it's release date.

I think both parties win out in that type of a situation. Disney gets more of their Marvel rights back along with however many Billion for Hulu and Comcast gets a more well known service that has more paid subscribers than Peacock. By adding in the clauses about content, it secures Comcast that they will have a streamer that has a ton of original content on it and they will have a few years before anything starts to disappear in terms of originals meaning they can bulk up their library with newer and more popular shows so that those other library originals won't be missed.

I expect Comcast to sell their shares and get some additional Fox ip's as an extra in return.

There's no way Disney is selling Fox IPs to Comcast. I'd quite frankly be surprised if Disney decides to purchase the remaining 33% as their stock will only go down. Wall Street wants none of them keeping Hulu and on that front I agree it's not worth it. I'd love to know what IPs you think they could fetch though realistically because something like an Alien if that's what you're thinking simply isn't happening. Disney's developing a movie and a series currently. Disney has things in the works for almost every Fox franchise currently if we're being honest so I just don't see what you think Comcast could get.

 

[tielo]

As far as I know Disney must buy the 33% for at least 27B, it's not an option. What I meant is that they could save money by giving Comcast ip's they own and Comcast may want instead of all in cash.

 

[Nick]

As far as I know Disney must buy the 33% for at least 27B, it's not an option. What I meant is that they could save money by giving Comcast ip's they own and Comcast may want instead of all in cash.

Not true. The position is that If Disney wants to buy the remaining 33% in 2024, Disney has the right to that 33% they would then pay them at least $27B + however many billion it has grown in value. If they choose not to put that clause into motion which essentially forces, then everything goes back to business as usual with Disney owning 67% and Comcast owning 33% and the whole 2024 deadline is over.

However.

Brian Roberts has publicly stated numerous times that if Disney is willing to sell, they are willing to buy themselves. The only thing that the agreement between Disney and Comcast a few years ago means that Disney has the first shot at the buyout and if they say they want to buy it out then that's what happens. So if Disney says no, they don't want to buy out the 33%, then Comcast or anyone else can come in and make an offer for the 67%. Comcast would obviously be the main player here if they want to buy since they already own 33%.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

There's no way Comcast buys Hulu and not the originals too.

 

[rageofthegods]

Even with all the originals I don't know why they'd pay 18b for it. Peacock is losing ungodly amounts of money right now but even if it stopped growing in revenue tomorrow, it'd still take 6 years to lose 18b. Hulu content tends to be Emmy plays too, they have precious few shows that actually travel well internationally.

If we were talking like, 20th TV and Studios gets tossed in then I could see the deal being worth it. But that's not gonna happen.

 

[Mad Dog]

and...I'll keep bringing up the interest rate issue...Those comments by Roberts were made back when borrowing was very cheap. That's not the case today, or in the near future. Corporate borrowing rates are generally much higher than the prime rates also.

 

[Nick]

There's no way Comcast buys Hulu and not the originals too.

That's not the way streaming works. Originals belong to whoever produced them. 20th TV, 20th Century, Searchlight, FX all produced most of them. Look at Netflix for example. They lose originals all the time because they revert back to who produced them. Disney paid to get The Defenders shows back, but had they waited 2-3 years they would've gotten them anyway. For example, The Handmaid's Tale. Disney has no ownership of that and they've never tried to get it because contractually they belong to MGM, now Amazon and Disney understands that.

If Comcast buys Hulu, they have to know what they're getting. They're getting Disney to produce new seasons of shows for them for years (there's a freakin' Alien show in the works at Hulu, do you really think Disney is selling that?). Disney would be continuing to produce Only Murders In The Building, Solar Opposites, The Kardashians, The D'amilio Show, Reservation Dogs, The Bear, and many, many projects that are already in production along with other projects that are renewed.

Comcast would be buying themselves into a perfect situation where they can sit back and throw out a bunch of reality TV content like they love to do for cheap and Disney, on their platform, would be continuing to produce the popular dramas, adult animation, comedies, hulu original movies (an Alien movie and A League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen reboot among them) and even extremely popular scripted reality in The Kardashians.

 

[Jake S]

That's not the way streaming works. Originals belong to whoever produced them. 20th TV, 20th Century, Searchlight, FX all produced most of them. Look at Netflix for example. They lose originals all the time because they revert back to who produced them. Disney paid to get The Defenders shows back, but had they waited 2-3 years they would've gotten them anyway. For example, The Handmaid's Tale. Disney has no ownership of that and they've never tried to get it because contractually they belong to MGM, now Amazon and Disney understands that.

exactly. hulu is basically a budget cable package aimed primarily at millennials. it's not that originals don't matter (say it with me folks: vertical integration) but that's not the point of owning this service.

 

[Nick]

exactly. hulu is basically a budget cable package aimed primarily at millennials. it's not that originals don't matter (say it with me folks: vertical integration) but that's not the point of owning this service.

Yeah, Hulu is simply an outlet for distribution. Hulu has already lost some of its early originals and as time goes by, more and more originals will be lost. Disney wouldn't be taking Only Murders in the Building to Disney+ and running. That show stays with Hulu until roughly 5 years after the final episode has aired along with every other original. Five years is just an estimate. Could be more could be less, but that's around the industry standard.

 

[quinnmac000]

Looks like Comcast doesn't want Hulu anymore

Comcast “Happy” To Sell Hulu Stake To Disney As Deadline Looms; Other Options “Must Be Better, In Our Minds, Than That”

Comcast President Mike Cavanagh said the media giant would of course consider alternative proposals for its stake in Hulu but they’d have to top its longstanding agreement to sell its remaining sta…

deadline.com

 

[tielo]

Looks like Comcast doesn't want Hulu anymore

Comcast “Happy” To Sell Hulu Stake To Disney As Deadline Looms; Other Options “Must Be Better, In Our Minds, Than That”

Comcast President Mike Cavanagh said the media giant would of course consider alternative proposals for its stake in Hulu but they’d have to top its longstanding agreement to sell its remaining sta…

deadline.com

"Under a four-year old, put-call agreement, Comcast can force Disney to buy the stake (or Disney can force Comcast to sell it) early next year."
This is going to be fun.

 

[GAcoaster]

Comcast-- "Sure would be a shame to force you further into debt..."

 

[shiekra38]

Nobody's stopping to ask Hulu how it's doing not being wanted by anyone

 

[Nico]

Nobody's stopping to ask Hulu how it's doing not being wanted by anyone

I spoke to Hulu. She’s pissed.

 

[Viator]

Cuts are now underway at TWDC, with it expected to not hit frontline CM's but rather the executive pool's.

Already, Jeffrey R. Epstein has since been laid off as of yesterday; and today, Ike Pearlmutter has now been laid off. To go further in the latter, Rob Steffens, co-president of Marvel Entertainment, and John Turitzin; the Chief Counsel has additionally been laid off; with Dan Buckley now reporting to Kevin Feige.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Ike Pearlmutter has now been laid off.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Idk this guy really, context?

 

[Jake S]

he's the former marvel ceo (the guy disney bought the company from). he's known as, ah, a particularly cost-conscious executive and clashed heavily with kevin feige following disney's takeover of the company.

this is a decent summary: Disney just laid off the guy it bought Marvel from... but that’s probably a good thing