Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[Alicia]

Disney counters with $80 billion and 1. And the bidding war continues Price is Right style!

 

[zg44]

The really important news here is Comcast may be adding stock to the offer. That to me signals they're in this to win.

Though these assets are getting very pricey for sure.

As I mentioned before, an all-cash bid at the $80 billion range doesn't make much sense; it puts way too much debt on the company.

 

[jtsalien]

I guess I don't understand how valuable Sky and/or the Hulu %age must be. That's so much money

 

[Alicia]

I guess I don't understand how valuable Sky and/or the Hulu %age must be. That's so much money

Yea tell me about it. Getting the feeling it's more about beating Disney than winning assets at this point.

Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm look like five and dime purchases comparatively.

 

[Mad Dog]

I guess I don't understand how valuable Sky and/or the Hulu %age must be. That's so much money

Don't forget the India system assets. Distribution assets are a key to this in Comcast's view.

 

[zg44]

I guess I don't understand how valuable Sky and/or the Hulu %age must be. That's so much money

Yea tell me about it. Getting the feeling it's more about beating Disney than winning assets at this point.

Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm look like five and dime purchases comparatively.

Add NBCU to that list.

Comcast got NBCUniversal for around $30 billion in total.

Disney got Pixar for $7 billion, Marvel and Lucasfilm for $4 billion each.

Those were all way cheaper than this. Murdochs' are the big winners no matter what happens next.

 

[SeventyOne]

I guess I don't understand how valuable Sky and/or the Hulu %age must be. That's so much money

I imagine this is similar to the "dot com" boom of the early 00s. Old people running companies hear about a new technology--the Web, streaming--and while they don't use it or fully understand it, they're scared of being left in the dust if they don't buy in.

Not to detract from the horse race aspect of this--which is interesting--but after talking with my brother the other day, I do question the wisdom behind it. Yes, having a massive media library to stream is huge in 2018. But that's because it's Gen X and and older Millenials doing the buying. It seems like younger Millenials and "Gen Z" are all about YouTube. In a decade, will 30-somethings really plop down money just to watch Alien or old Family Guy episodes when they don't seem to have any interest in that now? I do think the world will eventually shake out to two Netflix-like services, but I don't think you can predict what their main selling points will end up being.

 

[Mad Dog]

Add NBCU to that list.

Comcast got NBCUniversal for around $30 billion in total.

Disney got Pixar for $7 billion, Marvel and Lucasfilm for $4 billion each.

Those were all way cheaper than this. Murdochs' are the big winners no matter what happens next.

Interesting. GE, former majority owner of NBC Universal just got booted from the DOW, and replaced by Walgreens.

 

[Paulio]

Yea tell me about it. Getting the feeling it's more about beating Disney than winning assets at this point.

Comcast wants to be the next Disney of the Century, off course, they want to catch up with Disney and especially Warner Bros. who are in 2nd place at the domestic box office.

 

[Alicia]

Interesting. GE, former majority owner of NBC Universal just got booted from the DOW, and replaced by Walgreens.

Probably because they lost their head of Microwave and TV Programming, Jack Donaghy.

 

[zg44]

I imagine this is similar to the "dot com" boom of the early 00s. Old people running companies hear about a new technology--the Web, streaming--and while they don't use it or fully understand it, they're scared of being left in the dust if they don't buy in.

Not to detract from the horse race aspect of this--which is interesting--but after talking with my brother the other day, I do question the wisdom behind it. Yes, having a massive media library to stream is huge in 2018. But that's because it's Gen X and and older Millenials doing the buying. It seems like younger Millenials and "Gen Z" are all about YouTube. In a decade, will 30-somethings really plop down money just to watch Alien or old Family Guy episodes when they don't seem to have any interest in that now? I do think the world will eventually shake out to two Netflix-like services, but I don't think you can predict what their main selling points will end up being.

The other point that isn't made often enough is:

Netflix built a giant globe-spanning subscription service with no library and nothing backing it in terms of Hollywood studio infrastructure.

They have very low debt loads and are extremely nimble in terms of their corporate decision making process. It's not clear that the winner of this Fox bidding war will be able to do that with all of the Hollywood infrastructure. Of course, the built-in library is also an advantage given how popular lots of old shows are (as Hulu bingeing shows).

I can see the appeal though in having Fox's assets in Europe and India/Asia in particular; Sky and Star India are incredibly valuable, especially since they're completely focused on becoming the top streaming broadcasters in Europe and India over the next couple of years.

The biggest lesson of the past 20 years is that being nimble and being able to execute in creating a dominant technology platform are the most important aspects to succeed in the broader marketplace. I think Comcast and Disney both get that, but they're betting on aggregating old media assets to achieve it (i.e. the reverse of the Netflix strategy).

Interesting. GE, former majority owner of NBC Universal just got booted from the DOW, and replaced by Walgreens.

Yep; I always thought that was a mistake in some sense. Of course NBCU didn't really fit in with the rest of GE, but it was their most valuable division by far, and they basically gave it away due to their struggling balance sheet.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Jefferies: Comcast will counter in low-$40s for Fox assets - Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[zg44]

Disney Is Near U.S. Antitrust Approval on Fox in a Blow to Comcast - Bloomberg
This could be a big factor though after the AT&T-TW decision, I don't think anti-trust matters as much.

 

[Disneyhead]

@Marni1971 is saying this has already negatively impacted WDW's upcoming projects.

 

[Moose84]

I will reiterate a statement I made before in regards to this Disney and Fox's entertainment assets, movies and tv. They don't care about them. Well I shouldn't say that as I previously stated, the Marvel characters and the original Star Wars trilogy rights are valued by them but all others are viewed as expendable. They want hulu, star, sky and regional sports. The networks and movie studio are the least of their concerns.

Everyone keeps coming back to "well they want to tap into the other audiences they don't curse have content for", and "they will use the fox brand to promote it instead/differentiate the Disney label".
TOUCHSTONE PICTURES!!! Yeah, they say hi! Hollywood Pictures is rolling over in its grave.

Seriously Disney has an adult brand in house that they have seriously cut there ability to produce adult fare. Touchstone pictures still exists people. Hell believe it or not there next film is actually one you would never guess they are helping co-produce.
Anyone? Anyone?
Well I'll just give it to you then..GLASS! Yes that Glass movie. Universal Pictures and Blumhouse Productions Glass. Yup and not I'm not confused.

Touchstone Pictures was once a major player in the movie production business. They were producing upwards of 15 movies a year with 1-2 a year being of the blockbuster status. Yes sir so what did Disney? Well all but shut them down without actually shutting them down. They reduced their resources to only being able to produce 2-3 movies a year, which has now dwindled really as they have not released or produced anything since 2016 and Glass is all they have upcoming. On top of that the majority of their films over the last decade have been co-productions.

On top of this Disney also owned the Hollywood Pictures label that produced more adult fair as well. They are defunct just before Disney cut touchstones budget a decade ago.

Do we honestly believe Disney cares about an FX network and its properties like Archer, AHS, Taboo, etc. I would honestly be surprised if any of these survived a year with disneys ownership. The Fox Broadcast Channel may have some appeal with the NFL and MLB deals but Family Guy, Simpsons, LA to Vegas, etc. are not of interest. These are shows not only does Disney not care about but they probably view as detrimental to their brand and would want to part ways with.

Disney purposely left the adult oriented content in the dust, hell they made it publicly known of their interests moving forward. I will say some of the properties will have value for them in licensing and syndication forms but if we honestly believe Disney will invest money into these properties I believe we are being naive.

Fox is everything but the entertainment division for Disney, minus of course the two properties I mentioned at the start of my rant.

Please people, how do we not all see this?

 

[Paulio]

Disney Is Near U.S. Antitrust Approval on Fox in a Blow to Comcast - Bloomberg
This could be a big factor though after the AT&T-TW decision, I don't think anti-trust matters as much.

That's still going to take 6 months or by next year to get the Disney/Fox deal approved though, so I don't know why the DOJ decided to just approve the deal as soon as possible rather than wait for the potential effects for a couple of more months or so.

 

[Mad Dog]

@Marni1971 is saying this has already negatively impacted WDW's upcoming projects.

and Tirian is seconding Marni's point, concerning future AND present projects. . Said he's heard the same from his sources.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

@Marni1971 is saying this has already negatively impacted WDW's upcoming projects.

and Tirian is seconding Marni's point, concerning future AND present projects. . Said he's heard the same from his sources.

That's...worrysome for Galaxy's Edge.

 

[JungleSkip]

These are all stupid amounts of money.

I truly worry about Universal Park 3 right now.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I imagine getting a Murdoch as future CEO aid Disney is part of the reason Fox has a thirst for Disney.