Disney/FOX Acquisition Thread

[Scott W.]

I kinda hope Disney sells Fox Animation along with the rights so we can switch Simpsons for Bob's Burgers....

It would be a nice addition to their new streaming service.

 

[quinnmac000]

,NBCUniversal the only major media conglomerate not to own a successful superhero franchise

Glass trilogy seems pretty successful and a superhero franchise... Also, they have multiple hero based franchises coming...

 

[Paulio]

The one thing to keep in mind is that Universal/Paramount/Sony/Warner will have space to try new franchises assuming Disney lets a lot of the more tired Fox franchises expire or goes the tv route with them (i.e. on Hulu or one of their new streaming services).

I think that's a critical difference between the proposed Disney and Comcast takeovers; the only franchise that's likely to survive intact either way is Avatar. Under Disney, Kingman will probably still get its 3rd movie I'd imagine, but I find it hard to see Disney easily greenlighting anything else. Planet of the Apes needs a new plotline as do many of Fox's other franchises after their most recent outings.

The upcoming films to watch are The Predator and Alita Battle Angel from Fox. Those are their most obvious upcoming attempts to jump start franchises, and Disney brass will follow those 2 closely.

Beyond that, we just have to wait and see what Disney does with the rest. Given how full Disney's schedule is for the next couple of years, it's hard to see them pushing out Fox franchise revamps any time soon. Avatar and Kingsman 3 appear to be safe propositions with everything else up in the air or delayed/cancelled in the short-term.

Either way, if Fox is ceding a lot of blockbuster dates, that opens things up for others.

Honestly, there's no way in hell Disney is going sell a single Fox IP to another company, let alone Universal. They might be bloated by the addition of Fox properties to its already-tight schedule, but that's no way it would change their minds about selling them off. It can manage once Disney and Fox reorganize their business restructure. Disney knows their entertainment business far more than any major studio and they won't cede half of its power to anyone. After all, Fox IPs are a great addition to Disney's streaming service and Hulu, that's the main purpose behind Disney's acquisition of FOX. Universal barely have any live-action popular franchises at the moment. Jurassic World and F&F, the only two biggest Universal franchises, aren't going to last another decade. F&F might end in 2020 and after Jurassic World III in 2021, the film rights to the Jurassic Park franchise automatically reverts back to the Crichton Estate; it's the main reason why USH decided to re-theme the original JP ride based on JW instead, so they could continue as long as it should. After that, the only thing left surviving for Universal is DWA and Illumination, as well as Blumhouse Productions that produces low-budget horror movies.

I can see Universal trying to develop franchises like Mortal Engine (which I doubt it would be a BO success based on the trailer), but at the moment, it seems so bleak for the famed studio. Warner Bros. is ok, they have produced BO hits with many appealing and popular IPs like IT, Fantastic Beats, Wonder Woman, and the upcoming Aquaman movie. Sony seems to be developing steam with its Venom and Spider-Verse and Jumanji movies as well as the upcoming Zombie Land II next year, and Paramount seems to be in good shape with the Transformers and Mission Impossible movies. For Universal, especially their theme parks, it seems a bit bleak at the moment regarding their live-action blockbuster franchises for most audience to relate to.

 

[zg44]

Honestly, there's no way in hell Disney is going sell a single Fox IP to another company, let alone Universal. They might be bloated by the addition of Fox properties to its already-tight schedule, but that's no way it would change their minds about selling them off. It can manage once Disney and Fox reorganize their business restructure. Disney knows their entertainment business far more than any major studio and they won't cede half of its power to anyone. After all, Fox IPs are a great addition to Disney's streaming service and Hulu, that's the main purpose behind Disney's acquisition of FOX. Universal barely have any live-action popular franchises at the moment. Jurassic World and F&F, the only two biggest Universal franchises, aren't going to last another decade. F&F might end in 2020 and after Jurassic World III in 2021, the film rights to the Jurassic Park franchise automatically reverts back to the Crichton Estate; it's the main reason why USH decided to re-theme the original JP ride based on JW instead, so they could continue as long as it should. After that, the only thing left surviving for Universal is DWA and Illumination, as well as Blumhouse Productions that produces low-budget horror movies.

I can see Universal trying to develop franchises like Mortal Engine (which I doubt it would be a BO success based on the trailer), but at the moment, it seems so bleak for the famed studio. Warner Bros. is ok, they have produced BO hits with many appealing and popular IPs like IT, Fantastic Beats, Wonder Woman, and the upcoming Aquaman movie. Sony seems to be developing steam with its Venom and Spider-Verse and Jumanji movies as well as the upcoming Zombie Land II next year, and Paramount seems to be in good shape with the Transformers and Mission Impossible movies. For Universal, especially their theme parks, it seems a bit bleak at the moment regarding their live-action blockbuster franchises for most audience to relate to.

You're misunderstanding. I'm saying that Disney is unlikely to use many of the Fox franchises in the short-term due to their own full schedule of blockbusters. Only really Avatar (and Kingsman 3) fit naturally on their schedules with everything else in a holding pattern. And most of the Fox franchises need new plotlines and reimagining before they go anywhere.

I'm not saying they'd be willing to sell any of them because I know Disney won't. But I would point out that if Disney is reducing Fox's output significantly, that opens things up for other studios to try to generate new blockbusters to replace the resulting gap in the market place.

Every franchise starts from nothing. Of the biggest franchises for the next 30 years (through 2050), I'd imagine at least some sizeable portion isn't in the current mix.

Go back 15 years and think about which franchises right now weren't really franchises. Universal/Sony/Paramount will need to launch newer franchises since they don't have the ability to fall back on a massive comic universe like Disney and Warner do.

I think things will end up working out even if it's hard to see now. 10 years ago, Universal's movie output was crap. Now it's a remarkably healthy pipeline (as healthy as Warner's imo).

 

[Paulio]

I think things will end up working out even if it's hard to see now. 10 years ago, Universal's movie output was crap. Now it's a remarkably healthy pipeline (as healthy as Warner's imo).

Although true, it's really harder to come up with newer franchises aside from their already existing slot in the pat, throw them in front of a giant movie screen, and hoping they will be a hit and making such franchise relevant to pop culture and society among critics and fans. It's like a hit and miss, if it's not a success financially or critically, there's no point of continuing that franchise.

 

[zg44]

Although true, it's really harder to come up with newer franchises aside from their already existing slot in the pat, throw them in front of a giant movie screen, and hoping they will be a hit and making such franchise relevant to pop culture and society among critics and fans. It's like a hit and miss, if it's not a success financially or critically, there's no point of continuing that franchise.

Yeah, but that's why you have animated movies as a protective moat around the whole business.

In some ways, we just have to wait a couple of years and see how things go. Once Universal has 3-4 animated movies a year starting this November, they'll be much more immune to the risks of having barren years for the studio and will be much more protected from the downside risk of attempting to launch new franchises.

And the schedule ahead has plenty of potential franchises like Mortal Engines (which I'm skeptical on) as well as both Doolittle and Detective Pikachu (both of which I think have a good chance to be franchises).

 

[AlexanderMBush]

A note, Disney will be doing a webcast with shareholders on the day of the vote.

The Walt Disney Company’s Special Meeting of Shareholders - The Walt Disney Company

 

[quinnmac000]

Yeah, but that's why you have animated movies as a protective moat around the whole business.

In some ways, we just have to wait a couple of years and see how things go. Once Universal has 3-4 animated movies a year starting this November, they'll be much more immune to the risks of having barren years for the studio and will be much more protected from the downside risk of attempting to launch new franchises.

And the schedule ahead has plenty of potential franchises like Mortal Engines (which I'm skeptical on) as well as both Doolittle and Detective Pikachu (both of which I think have a good chance to be franchises).

Also now with Disney having Fox, the synergy with HarperCollins no longer will exist making it much harder for Fox to just get a bunch of book properties like they currently do because of shared ownership with some projects already being cancelled.

 

[Scott W.]

Out of interest, do you think the cost of buying Fox is greater than the total cost of building everything within WDW?

 

[Teebin]

Out of interest, do you think the cost of buying Fox is greater than the total cost of building everything within WDW?

That is thought provoking ain’t it.

 

[Paulio]

Yeah, but that's why you have animated movies as a protective moat around the whole business.

In some ways, we just have to wait a couple of years and see how things go. Once Universal has 3-4 animated movies a year starting this November, they'll be much more immune to the risks of having barren years for the studio and will be much more protected from the downside risk of attempting to launch new franchises.

And the schedule ahead has plenty of potential franchises like Mortal Engines (which I'm skeptical on) as well as both Doolittle and Detective Pikachu (both of which I think have a good chance to be franchises).

Exactly my point. Universal needs to continue to stay as diverse as possible, and not solely on one thing just to bail them out, so new popular franchises have to be needed, and coming up with it is very hard and time-consuming. Mortal Engines doesn't look that charming and if Detective Pikachu is a hit, it could open doors for Universal and Nintendo to create a successful Nintendo Cinematic Universe. But until then, Universal's future in regards to its number of live-action blockbuster franchises seems bleak at the moment.

Out of interest, do you think the cost of buying Fox is greater than the total cost of building everything within WDW?

Disney will pay back one way or another, so they will be absolutely fine. Yes, the Disney/FOX deal is going to put the company into further debt, which puts a halt in progress in in its theme parks for years, but as history shown, they rebound back as usual and they will continue to survive as a company. Eventually, Disney is going to use the Fox properties to get back in the theme park business and invest it heavily. For Universal parks, they will have to pay Disney royalty money not just for MSHI, but also the Simpsons areas, and will have to continue license more properties for the 3rd theme park in Orlando per the company's norm, so for them, although not a big deal, it's a loss.

 

[zg44]

Out of interest, do you think the cost of buying Fox is greater than the total cost of building everything within WDW?

The total value of WDW is probably somewhere around $20 billion for perspective.

Disney's theme park/resort division has a value of around $50 billion.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Called this. Add it on the list of “bad news”.

 

[Alicia]

Called this. Add it on the list of “bad news”.

The darkest timeline.

 

[Nick]

Called this. Add it on the list of “bad news”.

Suspected something like this as well. Disney has been in desperate need of anyone that can actually handle the job of CEO to replace Iger. Since the Murdoch sons have the experience, they have an immediate upper hand, which is unfortunate as it's almost as if Disney is paying $71B for Fox to buy Disney if this proves to be true.

 

[belloq87]

Not seeing a problem, other than the fact that he seems to have relatively little experience with all the different dimensions that Disney deals with.

I can't fathom how he could be any worse than any of the Iger toadies that were once rumored to take the job before being ushered out of the company.

 

[TheGentTrent]

I'm not sure I believe it. Iger and Chernin will both be 70 years old by the time the former is currently supposed to bow out as CEO.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Brian Roberts: Comcast Dropped Out of 21st Century Fox Hunt Because Price Soared – Variety

Soo just bringing this up from the Earnings Call.

 

[Mad Dog]

Brian Roberts: Comcast Dropped Out of 21st Century Fox Hunt Because Price Soared – Variety

Soo just bringing this up from the Earnings Call.

Yes, and he reiterated what he said previously, namely, (Roberts) "but we thought was mostly about international business opportunity"....There was no real need for them to keep over bidding on domestic Fox assets that weren't as important to them as the international assets. Now they can continue to go after SKY majority ownership. If they get SKY they'll basically achieve the major part of what they wanted anyway. They may have driven up the costs of Fox acquisition to Disney so high that Disney will be reluctant to make a hard drive for SKY majority control.

 

[Scott W.]

Brian Roberts: Comcast Dropped Out of 21st Century Fox Hunt Because Price Soared – Variety

Soo just bringing this up from the Earnings Call.

Forcing Disney to pay far above their original price is probably a nice bonus too.