Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[Nick]

So, some projections from the Travel Industry are coming out, and unsurprisingly they're dire.

I really worry about Disney potentially getting bought out in a hostile takeover due to how bad the impacts will be for them. Amazon or Apple could afford to do it if they wanted.

 

[JungleSkip]

I really worry about Disney potentially getting bought out in a hostile takeover due to how bad the impacts will be for them. Amazon or Apple could afford to do it if they wanted.

It’s a fascinating time for sure.

So far, Comcast seems to be positioning themselves well when it comes to theme parks. Having the foresight to continue funding (for now at least) EU construction with money that has to be coming from the core business (not to mention working better for their employees across the board IMO), they stand a good chance on becoming true equals with Disney. I'm expecting them to come out of this with far more land on I-Drive/Uni Boulevard at the very least, and possibly with SeaWorld at the very most.

I think Disney will be relatively fine in the long run...but it's going to hurt for a while.

 

[Nick]

It’s a fascinating time for sure.

So far, Comcast seems to be positioning themselves well when it comes to theme parks. Having the foresight to continue funding (for now at least) EU construction with money that has to be coming from the core business (not to mention working better for their employees across the board IMO), they stand a good chance on becoming true equals with Disney. I'm expecting them to come out of this with far more land on I-Drive/Uni Boulevard at the very least, and possibly with SeaWorld at the very most.

I think Disney will be relatively fine in the long run...but it's going to hurt for a while.

I definitely expect Universal will be able to scoop up more hotel land along that strip of Universal Blvd there near Endless Summer because of this.

 

[Legacy]

Disney Parks May Not Reopen Until January 2021

Disney Parks will likely reopen in January 2021.

screenrant.com

And this was the other rumor I heard with the furlough rumors.

 

[Nick]

Disney Parks May Not Reopen Until January 2021

Disney Parks will likely reopen in January 2021.

screenrant.com

And this was the other rumor I heard with the furlough rumors.

That would be absolutely devastating for them. I expected this for the cruise lines, but I figured the theme parks would be able to open in some capacity before 2021. Then again, if they open, they'll likely be operating at a loss, so it just may not be worth it to them to be open I guess?

 

[Legacy]

That would be absolutely devastating for them. I expected this for the cruise lines, but I figured the theme parks would be able to open in some capacity before 2021. Then again, if they open, they'll likely be operating at a loss, so it just may not be worth it to them to be open I guess?

Which is the argument. If the expectation is that consumer confidence will keep attendance so low it’s not profitable to open, then they shouldn’t open.

Disneyland has to contend with local restrictions. Disney World has to deal with 87% of Americans not wanting to fly until there’s a vaccine. It’s, arguably, smarter for Disney to sit and let demand build.

 

[Scott W.]

So, some projections from the Travel Industry are coming out, and unsurprisingly they're dire.

That's probably better than I would have expected.

 

[JungleSkip]

That's probably better than I would have expected.

Yea I personally think they’re being a little Rosen with their projections, personally. But even this “optimistic” view is devastating

 

[Scott W.]

Yea I personally think they’re being a little Rosen with their projections, personally. But even this “optimistic” view is devastating

I just don’t understand where people are going to travel to and that’s if people can even afford to go.

That’s the other big issue I’m not seeing discussed with Disney and Universal. They are an expensive place to visit and unless they’re prepared to offer some major discounts to make people think that the risk is worth it, people aren’t going to go.

 

[Clive]

Shanghai Disney prepping to reopen a bit over 4 months after its lockdown began signals to me that the stateside parks will likely follow suit.

 

[Teebin]

I just don’t understand where people are going to travel to and that’s if people can even afford to go.

I fear the megalopolis of the northeastern US will be traveling by car to pristine safe Maine this summer and fall. That is how 99% of them have gotten here in the past. The ones that do fly are usually flying in on private jets.

 

[Tobias]

That would be absolutely devastating for them. I expected this for the cruise lines, but I figured the theme parks would be able to open in some capacity before 2021. Then again, if they open, they'll likely be operating at a loss, so it just may not be worth it to them to be open I guess?

Which is the argument. If the expectation is that consumer confidence will keep attendance so low it’s not profitable to open, then they shouldn’t open.

Disneyland has to contend with local restrictions. Disney World has to deal with 87% of Americans not wanting to fly until there’s a vaccine. It’s, arguably, smarter for Disney to sit and let demand build.

Something to add to that is Disney's revenue stream has really dried up, be it still having to deal with the effects of purchasing Fox as well as no movie theaters or parks open. It's why they've been furloughing staff and even letting some go. With all that plus the reasons mentioned above, I can see it being very plausible they don't reopen till next year. This is not the time where you want to be operating at a loss for very long.

On the flipside, Universal is not in the same boat. They've still got a revenue stream and park construction has been carrying on as usual. They could still conceivably reopen to some extent this year.

 

[Nick]

Shanghai Disney prepping to reopen a bit over 4 months after its lockdown began signals to me that the stateside parks will likely follow suit.

Remember that Disney only owns 49% of Shanghai and the government 51%. It's not a 1:1 situation.

 

[Clive]

Remember that Disney only owns 49% of Shanghai and the government 51%. It's not a 1:1 situation.

I'm well aware. I'm standing by my point. The parks are bleeding money by remaining closed, and it's clear there's a priority to get them open again based on Disney's participation in both states' economic task forces. I see the calculus in perhaps deciding to generate pent up demand by waiting, but I just don't see it happening.

 

[Teebin]

Disney Parks May Not Reopen Until January 2021

Disney Parks will likely reopen in January 2021.

screenrant.com

And this was the other rumor I heard with the furlough rumors.

I find it hard to believe they can’t be profitable if they just open 1 or 2 parks and a few hotels. There has to be enough people that would come to fill them up.

They are going to have to maintain their full landscaping team for a year otherwise the plants will gobble the place up.

And what about AK? That has to be pricey maintaining all of those animals, but it is this park and Epcot I would keep closed before the others.

 

[Nick]

I'm well aware. I'm standing by my point. The parks are bleeding money by remaining closed, and it's clear there's a priority to get them open again based on Disney's participation in both states' economic task forces. I see the calculus in perhaps deciding to generate pent up demand by waiting, but I just don't see it happening.

I find it hard to believe they can’t be profitable if they just open 1 or 2 parks and a few hotels. There has to be enough people that would come to fill them up.

They are going to have to maintain their full landscaping team for a year otherwise the plants will gobble the place up.

And what about AK? That has to be pricey maintaining all of those animals, but it is this park and Epcot I would keep closed before the others.

It takes thousands and thousands of people to staff the parks. They pay them $14/hour minimum. I'm expecting locals to be the very dominant base of visitors and they work half the day. I think unless Disney plans on running their parks from 10-4pm, they're going to lose even more money by being open at least until the holiday season.

 

[Clive]

It takes thousands and thousands of people to staff the parks. They pay them $14/hour minimum. I'm expecting locals to be the very dominant base of visitors and they work half the day. I think unless Disney plans on running their parks from 10-4pm, they're going to lose even more money by being open at least until the holiday season.

Not if they do the phased reopening plan with reduced capacity and staffing, which is what's currently being contemplated.

 

[Nick]

Not if they do the phased reopening plan with reduced capacity and staffing, which is what's currently being contemplated.

I know what's currently being contemplated and it would still be very expensive for ops no matter what. I truly think there's going to be very few tourists and even the small amount of hotels they have open and the parks would all operate at losses.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this.

 

[Teebin]

It takes thousands and thousands of people to staff the parks.

It will cost a lot less if they run with bare bones staff. Run only a few rides, a few shops, a few restaurants, no parades, no fireworks, no M&G. That is a lot less staff.

 

[Nick]

It will cost a lot less if they run with bare bones staff. Run only a few rides, a few shops, a few restaurants, no parades, no fireworks, no M&G. That is a lot less staff.

WDW employs more than 70,000. If you open DAK, DHS and MK as is the current phased plan (along with a few hotels) you're probably going to need at least 30-35K (and that would truly be running on bare bones - they'd probably need closer to 40K), even with certain things closed and reduced park hours. That's a lot of money that needs to go around for ops to potentially be losing even more money than they already are.