Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[ssirin88]

I can't even imagine what's going to happen in 2 weeks, let alone June/July.

 

[Nick]

I know time has lost all meaning but remember we are still in *APRIL* and June is still over a month away.

I also believe we are massively jumping the gun on reopenings and this will backfire.

I think we are jumping the gun as well, however, once you let the horses out of the barn, cases will spike no matter what. We're talking about millions of people who have been distancing and not exposed to the virus at all and will now be around quite a few people for the first time in awhile. While I wish we would wait, Orange county has handled the virus very well and none of the hospitals have ever become close to overrun and we're supposedly past peak. Sure, there will be a new spike after this, but it will be manageable for the hospitals, which was what social distancing was always for - keeping the hospital system from becoming overrun.

Of course, I still do think there's a very good chance that the parks have to close in the fall again if the virus kicks back up alongside of the flu.

 

[Andysol]

You have to remember though, even once they decide to reopen (and they've told TMs and guests they're closed through May 31st at least), that they have to get TMs back from furlough, possibly do some hiring to fill spots of those that got a different job, but more importantly, they will have to retrain every TM on property I would think with new COVID protocols. I would think there would be a solid few weeks of just training and getting back to working in the parks before they open.

To play this out- couldn’t Universal go back on the May 31 date and tell them May 15, as an example, instead?

It’s not like the TMs have vacations or other plans.

Sure, there will be a new spike after this, but it will be manageable for the hospitals, which was what social distancing was always for - keeping the hospital system from becoming overrun.

Correct. This is a forgone conclusion. We’ve collectively (as a world, really), decided that the benefit of pure isolation isn’t worth the risk of isolation. So a spike is going to happen, just with the intent to make it reasonable.
Theaters and restaurants open at 25%? More than manageable. Hospitals will be fine.
A theme park at 50%? Eh...

 

[Legacy]

Probably not even considering going back either until HHN, assuming it happens as a "normal" event.

It will not be “normal.” Social distancing will still be in effect, in some capacity. The only question is, “how restrictive will the event be?”

 

[fryoj]

If this thing, as predicted, is something everyone if pretty much going to get, we need some spread and spikes. Keeping everyone locked down until there is a vaccine(if there even can be one), is not realistic. Keeping everything locked down isn't going to make it go away. I've seen antibody test estimates that in some areas only 5-10% of the people have had it. We need for people to get infected and build antibodies. The key will be educating people on how to keep themselves safe. That's where the guidelines for businesses come in. There will still be transmissions, but it should be manageable for healthcare. Whether the parks can adhere to them or not is still a valid question, but getting things open and people interacting again is a necessary step towards getting past this whole deal.

 

[Andysol]

What if they limit the days at the parks to 4 for disney and 3 for universal?
That way in the event someone contracts the virus, they likely aren’t showing symptoms, gets on a plane and takes it back to their city vs overwhelming Orange County hospitals?
Yes, they’ll be risking infection for people on the plane and airports as well, but that risk will be there whether it’s a 4 day trip or a 20 day trip.

Also, remember- 94% of the NY hospitalizations had a secondary illness. So if the only people that are going are young and healthy (which are the only people that should), the hospitals likely won’t be hit no matter what.

 

[Happytycho]

Can I get an F for SeaWorld?

F

In all seriousness, these guidelines seem pretty reasonable, but I'm intrigued by the complete omission of requiring any customers to wear masks, and I'm concerned that the limits on theme parks may not have enough precautions.

I'm also concerned that these guidelines don't include anything about responding to employees or guests who become symptomatic on-site (for any business).

 

[JungleSkip]

F

In all seriousness, these guidelines seem pretty reasonable, but I'm intrigued by the complete omission of requiring any customers to wear masks, and I'm concerned that the limits on theme parks may not have enough precautions.

I'm also concerned that these guidelines don't include anything about responding to employees or guests who become symptomatic on-site (for any business).

These are just the prelim guidelines. They also seem to be focused on what the businesses must do, not what they tell their guests to do.

 

[Nick]

To play this out- couldn’t Universal go back on the May 31 date and tell them May 15, as an example, instead?

It’s not like people have vacations or have other plans.

They could I guess theoretically, but I highly doubt they will. If they wanted to open May 15th for example, they would already need to be preparing and telling TMs. Look how long it is taking Shanghai Disney to test out their new COVID protocols? The park could probably open today theoretically, but they aren't ready as far as the social distancing stuff goes yet, taking everyone's temperatures, etc. Taking every single TM's temperature as they come in is going to be a massive thing they need to implement backstage as it will take a lot of time. Will they still show CineSpec? I think they could, they would just have to mark spots on the ground that are 6 feet apart. How does buying merch work? Do they put plexiglass up? You aren't close to 6 feet apart when you are at a register. What about freestyle machines? So many people touch those screens.

These are all questions (many more too) that i'm sure Universal is working on and has answers too that they need to actually implement and make sure that it all works and it seems like something guests would feel comfortable with. They can't just flick the switch and turn it on.

Speaking of Shanghai though... There's a video of fireworks testing if you scroll to the third image.

 

[Andysol]

The park could probably open today theoretically, but they aren't ready as far as the social distancing stuff goes yet, taking everyone's temperatures, etc.

Totally. Just saying they could say May 15 return with a June 1 open. Or even May 15 with a June 15 open.

Either way, they need to confirm the May 31 day or adjust if that’s the plan.

 

[Nick]

Totally. Just saying they could say May 15 return with a June 1 open. Or even May 15 with a June 15 open.

Either way, they need to confirm the May 31 day or adjust if that’s the plan.

I think it's possible Universal brings some TMs back in mid to late May for a Mid-June open. It would only be Full-timers, however as Part time and Seasonal are being Furloughed on May 4th. Of course since I expect park hours to be something like 10am-5pm to start out, Full-time is really the only people they will need for a bit. They can probably wait a little bit before taking the others off of furlough.

 

[tielo]

I don't get this. The US was the latest country to get the virus, where the worst prepared and already we hear that they want to go back to normal soon. I wish you all the very best and above all a lot of wisdom as that is, like toilet paper, in short demand.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I don't get this. The US was the latest country to get the virus, where the worst prepared and already we hear that they want to go back to normal soon. I wish you all the very best and above all a lot of wisdom as that is, like toilet paper, in short demand.

I wish I wasn’t here rn. As in America, can I come join you?

 

[Nick]

Correct. This is a forgone conclusion. We’ve collectively (as a world, really), decided that the benefit of pure isolation isn’t worth the risk of isolation. So a spike is going to happen, just with the intent to make it reasonable.
Theaters and restaurants open at 25%? More than manageable. Hospitals will be fine.
A theme park at 50%? Eh...

Yeah, the theme parks should be 25% imo.

MK's capacity is very close to 100K so 50% is still letting in close to 50K
USF and IOA are both close to 50K capacity so again, being at 50% is still letting in 25K

50K at MK and 25K at IOA and USF are actually kinda average numbers in a normal world anyway. 50K might be a little less than average for MK, but either way. The point is, 50% is still letting a crap ton of people in.

 

[Andysol]

I wish I wasn’t here rn. As in America, can I come join you?

He's also wrong about all 3 statements. So there's that.

 

[JungleSkip]

Yeah, the theme park's should be 25% imo.

MK's capacity is very close to 100K so 50% is still letting in close to 50K
USF and IOA are bother close to 50K capacity so again, being at 50% is still letting in 25K

50K at MK and 25K at IOA and USF are actually kinda average numbers in a normal world anyway. 50K might be a little less than average for MK, but either way. The point is, 50% is still letting a crap ton of people in.

I don't think they're going to come close to 50% capacity any time soon.

 

[Nick]

I don't think they're going to come close to 50% capacity any time soon.

I don't think so either, but I also don't think they should even be allowing that many if they did magically show up.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

He's also wrong about all 3 statements. So there's that.

We were the latest or one of, are clearly unprepared, haven’t solved that problem, and are going to try and begin to normalize. I worry for the Fall.

 

[JungleSkip]

I don't think so either, but I also don't think they should even be allowing that many if they did magically show up.

I also think 50% capacity could be a bit misleading? I dunno. We already know they're looking into things like only loading every other row/ride vehicles with only one group.

For all we know that 50% capacity would be 50% *ride* capacity, which would be a far lower number.

 

[Andysol]

We were the latest or one of, are clearly unprepared, haven’t solved that problem, and are going to try and begin to normalize. I worry for the Fall.

"The US was the latest country to get the virus"
We weren't. Not even close.

"where the worst prepared"
We weren't. Not even close.

"and already we hear that they want to go back to normal soon."
We aren't. Not even close.

I realize it's "cool" to crap on America, but... he's wrong.
Almost the entirety of the industrialized world was as prepared as America; which is to say they weren't.

Edit: Sorry- this is tourism: we can continue this in General if you'd like.