The "V" shaped curve for the theme parks sounds accurate. As long as their prices are better than Disney, I think by 2022 their numbers will be back to being a bit better and profitable but it is difficult to project that now. In my eyes, if Universal misses HHN entirely (limited capacity still means some $ and maybe less houses for less staffing) that'd be a major major loss for them. I can't help but imagine that is a major $$ mover for them. But if things recover by 2022, having a brand new world class theme park opening in 2023 when we may not see anything new at Disney until like 2025, I think they could capitalize.
I obviously do not speak for all consumers, but for me (while I naturally like Universals parks more in general), it is really their hotels and hotel pricing that has made them my vacation destination. The hotel prices across Disney are just crazy, pure crazy. The trip we originally booked for April I was paying 1/2 for cause traveling with mum
but without that I couldn't afford it. And the value resorts don't seem great epseically when you have Surfside and Dockside. A lot will depend on how Disney responds, and Universals marketing of the new resort. Nintendo is so huge that crowds will come, just gotta get them to do what I do and stay with them. Should be interesting.