Epic Universe Expansion Speculation

[belloq87]

Am I particularly jazzed about the idea of Pokemon or WICKED as properties? No. Would I be more interested in stuff like Lord of the Rings, Zelda, Star Trek, James Bond, Ghostbusters, Shrek, or those classic Universal IPs (Jaws, BTTF)? Absolutely.

But I also haven't seen the SECRET LIFE OF PETS movies, and Off the Leash in Hollywood is one of my favorite Universal rides.

If the attractions are great, I don't need to love the IP. Just do something good with it.

 

[Mad Dog]

Am I particularly jazzed about the idea of Pokemon or WICKED as properties? No. Would I be more interested in stuff like Lord of the Rings, Zelda, Star Trek, James Bond, Shrek, or those classic Universal IPs (Jaws, BTTF)? Absolutely.

But I also haven't seen the SECRET LIFE OF PETS movies, and Off the Leash in Hollywood is one of my favorite Universal rides.

If the attractions are great, I don't need to love the IP. Just do something good with it.

YES !!!

 

[tommyhawkins]

I find the reactions interesting. The mindset that some people (not here) think you couldn't have two boat rides in a park, albeit very different ride systems that offer different ride experiences. But would be fine with a Luigi's Mansion Omni mover as an expansion to SnW that has an Omni mover. And have been fine with River Adventure, Doo rights and Popeye's basically next door to each other.

If creature gets Mack rocking boat, and is the hybrid water coaster with a physical tracked drop, and Zelda gets its own 7acre plot that has Shanghai pirates type system or even part flying part water whatever those patents were ..these could be awesome and be able to tell stories in very different ways.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Just curious, I'm not criticizing your post moreso just trying to learn... how did you get to the break even point of $900 million. Are you counting how much the theater takes a cut?

One critique is that Universal likely isn't genuinely counting this as a single budget. Even if they were filmed at the same time, they'll likely just split the budget in half (then add marketing) to get the final tally of the profits and losses. Being in "a profit before it was released" I don't think would work if you're at the boardroom at Universal.

The universal mat is 2.5X your budget, However it's harder to tell with big films as normal split does not apply. For those films percentages initially offer a larger chunk to studios (it can be as high as 80%) and the studio share declines each week. So for those films, 2X is generally considered the norm. Regardless of how Universal wants to keep its books, the films shared the budget for production. Both films are profitable.

$150m is the first film only

Inside ‘Wicked’s’ Marketing Blitz: How Universal Courted 400 Brands and Spent Big to Guarantee the Musical Was ‘Everywhere’

Universal spared no expense in painting the globe pink and green in anticipation of “Wicked.”

variety.com

Both films were shot at the same time. They simply aribitrarilly split the budget but it was one budget for both films.

 

[tommyhawkins]

The universal mat is 2.5X your budget, However it's harder to tell with big films as normal split does not apply. For those films percentages initially offer a larger chunk to studios (it can be as high as 80%) and the studio share declines each week. So for those films, 2X is generally considered the norm. Regardless of how Universal wants to keep its books, the films shared the budget for production. Both films are profitable.


Both films were shot at the same time. They simply aribitrarilly split the budget but it was one budget for both films.

No, I said you cited the numbers from an article from 2024. $300m production and $150m for Wicked 1 marketing. As someone else pointed out further up if the budget for wicked 2 was reduced a little to $125

That's still $300m + $150m + $125 = $575 total cost
1 grossed $758m
2 is currently stalled at $445m
For a total of $1, 203, 000, 000

Half of that going to distributors means if it's in the black it's barely scraping a profit right now.
The fact in itself that part 2 lost it's own audience would make them cautious about what they spend in the future.

Anecdotally, a lot of hardcore fans who saw the first one multiple times and trailed off doing the same for the second.

I'm not arguing for no presence in theme parks, but I question the true size of it's audience and how successful it's actually been- breaking even and huge profits are not the same even if it's in the black. I'm not convinced they need to build on the scale of Potter to shift the same merch. I also don't really want to hang on every word screamscape prints either, no one else is saying that so far.

 

[Clive]

No, I said you cited the numbers from an article from 2024. $300m production and $150m for Wicked 1 marketing. As someone else pointed out further up if the budget for wicked 2 was reduced a little to $125

That's still $300m + $150m + $125 = $575 total cost
1 grossed $758m
2 is currently stalled at $445m
For a total of $1, 203, 000, 000

Half of that going to distributors means if it's in the black it's barely scraping a profit right now.
The fact in itself that part 2 lost it's own audience would make them cautious about what they spend in the future.

Anecdotally, a lot of hardcore fans who saw the first one multiple times and trailed off doing the same for the second.

I'm not arguing for no presence in theme parks, but I question the true size of it's audience and how successful it's actually been- breaking even and huge profits are not the same even if it's in the black. I'm not convinced they need to build on the scale of Potter to shift the same merch. I also don't really want to hang on every word screamscape prints either, no one else is saying that so far.

I really want to emphasize that the rule of thumb is you need to triple your reported production budget, not that plus print and advertising costs. That's rolled into the whole "triple the production budget" thing.

Half of the gross doesn't go to distributors, either -- with a highly anticipated event film like this, Universal can set terms, which typically include a higher percentage of the take for the first, second, or even third week of theatrical exhibition. Disney played a big role in normalizing this practice for their event films like Star Wars. This means Universal likely took a greater share of the (in this case) fairly front-loaded opening weekends of both titles.

This is all before you take into account the other revenue streams: streaming rights, rentals, DVD purchases, merchandise, and so on.

All that to say, yes, the performance of Part 2 is likely underwhelming, but taken as a pair, this is still a very huge hit.

There were never any serious efforts to produce a spin-off or third film, by the way. A comment here or there from an overeager executive, maybe, but nothing past the earliest stages of exploration.