Well if the FFP w Express crowd goes into standby that means the queue wait will be the same, right? We're assuming the same amount of guests entering with single day express, it'd make the regular line be longer (aka more people) but move quicker.
Only if they change ratios. Without a ratio change, standby only moves faster if the Express line is empty.
Let’s say House A and B at 7:00pm in 2025 had 100 in Express and 300 in standby and throughput is 400/hour. A 1:1 ratio means the sign at the front of the houses should say 30min for Express (if that existed) and 90 minutes for standby - because the Express people who already cleared their first house will be getting in line for the next and each side at a 1:1 ratio processes 200/hour.
Now in 2026, let's say a quarter of those Express people bought down to regular and another quarter told Universal to kick rocks (50 Express, 325 standby). At 1:1, the sign at the front of the houses should say 15 minutes for Express and 97.5 minutes for standby.
Fewer total people, yet longer standby. This is because Express people are now clearing House A at a rate that lets them not just get through their second house before the 325th House B standby guest gets to the front door, but also now on to their third house to make the wait longer for the 325th standby guest over at House C who is still only like 3/4 of the way through the queue. And if 90 minutes is the House A standby balk point, that's just going to load the other house's standby queues faster.
Ratios to prior years equal, the majority of the benefit to standby is only going to occur once Express entitlements are used up and the entire system becomes predominantly standby. Express will finish houses at a faster rate in peak hours and the only real standby benefit is going to be in non-peak hours (a little at the beginning of the night but mostly toward the end of the night).
Now... if they're trying to shrink the number of Express guests while also changing the ratios to favor standby so Express ends up waiting the same amount of time as last year, that's a colossally stupid idea and I would absolutely lose my **** if I spent $200-300 on Express.
TLDR; standby won't move faster unless they change ratios, and - if people actually buy down from Express to normal - standby will probably be waiting longer during peak hours before getting to the point when Express entitlements used up = empty Express queues = faster standby.