Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

Legendary has got to be pissed about this, yeah and I'm sure they're arguing behind the scenes rn. Still, I don't see a big breakup between them and Warners, because where else would they go?

Disney doesn't co-finance their movies. Universal probably doesn't want a repeat of their last experience with Legendary, where they were forced to give up stakes in their highest-profile franchises in exchange for movies that often bombed. Paramount already has multiple cofinancing partners lined up (Skydance, New Republic). And Sony...I don't really know whats going on at Sony, actually, but they don't really make production deals anymore and probably don't want to give up financial stakes in Spiderman or Jumanji.

I think a suit is a last resort, if even that. Their deal with Warner is still incredible (flat rate instead of percentage on their movies!) And I don't think they'll want to give that up. There's the possibility that they could become a free agent, selling movies to studios all over town, but idk. Who would buy a movie like Skyscraper?

Lionsgate or Sony would seem to be the only options, and i'm not sure how viable either of those are. Lionsgate is still a mid-major studio (although they do have a lot of franchises under their belt) and Sony seems to want to focus on their Spider-Verse + in house stuff (Jumanji, Last year's MIB, and the upcoming Ghostbusters and Uncharted being examples) in terms of big budget stuff.

 

[rageofthegods]

Lionsgate or Sony would seem to be the only options, and i'm not sure how viable either of those are. Lionsgate is still a mid-major studio (although they do have a lot of franchises under their belt) and Sony seems to want to focus on their Spider-Verse + in house stuff (Jumanji, Last year's MIB, and the upcoming Ghostbusters and Uncharted being examples) in terms of big budget stuff.

Yah, they seem content keeping things in house and that seems to be their big budget strat.

Honestly though, slight tangent, but props to Sony for making midbudget movies like Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood work at the box office. They're pretty much set to capture Fox's old niche of "surprisingly huge dramas" a la Hidden Figures, especially now that they have the old Fox 2000 team.

 

[Nick]

Yah, they seem content keeping things in house and that seems to be their big budget strat.

Honestly though, slight tangent, but props to Sony for making midbudget movies like Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood work at the box office. They're pretty much set to capture Fox's old niche of "surprisingly huge dramas" a la Hidden Figures, especially now that they have the old Fox 2000 team.

If all movies trend to being on streaming with the major theaters day and date, then those to be hurt the most really (aside from theaters) will be indie films/studios. I wonder if maybe United Artists Releasing, A24 and some other small studios may come together to form their own streaming service or if they'll just settle for selling to Netflix, Hulu or someone else?

 

[rageofthegods]

If all movies trend to being on streaming with the major theaters day and date, then those to be hurt the most really (aside from theaters) will be indie films/studios. I wonder if maybe United Artists Releasing, A24 and some other small studios may come together to form their own streaming service or if they'll just settle for selling to Netflix, Hulu or someone else?

A24 seems to have hitched their wagon with Apple. Neon is doing a lot of co-distributions with Hulu. United Artists is led by Annapurna and MGM, the former is basically a private arts fund and the latter is looking to sell itself eventually.

Indie distributors will continue to exist, but the business is tough and there are alot of distributors throughout history that eventually went under: FilmDistrict, Relativity, Polygram, MGM for a while, New World Pictures, AVCO Embassy Pictures, going all the way back to Monogram & Republic Pictures in the 30s.

Idk how well a bespoke streaming service would work, there are already services like Mubi, Sundance Now and Criterion that do that and they're not really the biggest services. I think indie distributors will have a future basically selling and co-distributing with streamers like Hulu and Nettles, yah; they help subsidize the big streamer's content budgets by ponying up cash for big Sundance titles and they basically do free curation for them.

 

[Nick]

A24 seems to have hitched their wagon with Apple. Neon is doing a lot of co-distributions with Hulu. United Artists is led by Annapurna and MGM, the former is basically a private arts fund and the latter is looking to sell itself eventually.

Indie distributors will continue to exist, but the business is tough and there are alot of distributors throughout history that eventually went under: FilmDistrict, Relativity, Polygram, MGM for a while, New World Pictures, AVCO Embassy Pictures, going all the way back to Monogram & Republic Pictures in the 30s.

Idk how well a bespoke streaming service would work, there are already services like Mubi, Sundance Now and Criterion that do that and they're not really the biggest services. I think indie distributors will have a future basically selling and co-distributing with streamers like Hulu and Nettles, yah; they help subsidize the big streamer's content budgets by ponying up cash for big Sundance titles and they basically do free curation for them.

I could see Apple just flat out buying A24 or whoever since they have the money. Amazon too. I'd say Netflix, but Netflix is operating at a loss, so they aren't in a position to buy a studio. I can definitely see Apple and Amazon wanting to have a indie studio under their umbrella that could make awards fare for them.

 

[rageofthegods]

I could see Apple just flat out buying A24 or whoever since they have the money. Amazon too. I'd say Netflix, but Netflix is operating at a loss, so they aren't in a position to buy a studio. I can definitely see Apple and Amazon wanting to have a indie studio under their umbrella that could make awards fare for them.

It's a possibility. I think A24 has been going through financial issues recently.

Tho honestly I think if Apple wanted to buy A24, they would've done so already. Ditto with Amazon, although they were apparently interested in teaming up with Comcast to get Fox for a little bit, so who knows. Amazon already has awards cred with movies like Manchester by the Sea though.

EDIT: I just remembered that Apple had intended its studio to be a "Focus Features awards contender," so they might not see the appeal in spending however many millions to acquire A24 when they could just poach A24's executives and put them at the head of their studio.

 

[Disneyhead]

What if theaters made deals with a bunch of different streaming services to play their original content including mini-series with short runs in the theater. I'd pay $18-20 to see all the episodes of The Stand on the big screen, but I don't want to sign up for CBS all access.

There is so much great content coming out across so many services that to have them all is more expensive than cable and juggling around signing up and dropping services just to see what you want is a PITA.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Good interview with Steven Soderbergh about how the HBO Max announcement doesn't mean much for the long term (yet): Steven Soderbergh: The Reports of Cinema’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

The industry has appeared headed toward a streaming world for some time, and COVID has sped up that transition—highlighted by the recent announcement that Warner Bros. will debut its entire 2021 film slate on HBO Max. Is this the beginning of the end for theaters?

No. Not at all. It’s just a reaction to an economic reality that I think everybody is going to have to acknowledge pretty soon, which is that even with a vaccine, the theatrical movie business won’t be robust enough in 2021 to justify the amount of P&A you need to spend to put a movie into wide release. There’s no scenario in which a theater that is 50 percent full, or at least can’t be made 100 percent full, is a viable paradigm to put out a movie in. But that will change. We will reach a point where anybody who wants to go to a movie will feel safe going to a movie.

I think somebody sat down and did a very clear-eyed analysis of what COVID is going to do in the next year, even with a potential vaccine, and said, I don’t see this as being workable in 2021. Because let’s be clear: there is no bonanza in the entertainment industry that is the equivalent of a movie that grosses a billion dollars or more theatrically. That is the holy grail. So the theatrical business is not going away. There are too many companies that have invested too much money in the prospect of putting out a movie that blows up in theaters—there’s nothing like it. It’s all going to come back. But I think Warners is saying: not as soon as you think.

It's a possibility. I think A24 has been going through financial issues recently.

Tho honestly I think if Apple wanted to buy A24, they would've done so already. Ditto with Amazon, although they were apparently interested in teaming up with Comcast to get Fox for a little bit, so who knows. Amazon already has awards cred with movies like Manchester by the Sea though.

EDIT: I just remembered that Apple had intended its studio to be a "Focus Features awards contender," so they might not see the appeal in spending however many millions to acquire A24 when they could just poach A24's executives and put them at the head of their studio.

It's worth noting that A24's deal with Apple is more of a financing partnership based on when the deal was made two years ago. Deadline even said back when the deal was made that A24 was not in talks to be acquired.A24 still has a lot of big unreleased films being released solely through the studio, so I'm not concerned about their future, especially when last year was their biggest year to date.

 

[Scott W.]

What if theaters made deals with a bunch of different streaming services to play their original content including mini-series with short runs in the theater. I'd pay $18-20 to see all the episodes of The Stand on the big screen, but I don't want to sign up for CBS all access.

There is so much great content coming out across so many services that to have them all is more expensive than cable and juggling around signing up and dropping services just to see what you want is a PITA.

While I don’t think this is going to be the death of theatres as we currently know it, it will start to blur the lines between cinema and tv.

There’s so many great tv shows that would be greatly enhanced watching in a cinema. Under normal circumstances, I’m sure that the final episode of the Mandalorian could easily be shown in theatres.

 

[TheGentTrent]

What if theaters made deals with a bunch of different streaming services to play their original content including mini-series with short runs in the theater. I'd pay $18-20 to see all the episodes of The Stand on the big screen, but I don't want to sign up for CBS all access.
There is so much great content coming out across so many services that to have them all is more expensive than cable and juggling around signing up and dropping services just to see what you want is a PITA.

While I don’t think this is going to be the death of theatres as we currently know it, it will start to blur the lines between cinema and tv.
There’s so many great tv shows that would be greatly enhanced watching in a cinema. Under normal circumstances, I’m sure that the final episode of the Mandalorian could easily be shown in theatres.

I've been preaching this for years. One of my best theater experiences was watching the final two episodes of Game of Thrones's fourth season in IMAX a few years back.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Bring back Cinerama (On a serious note, a few years ago I got to see a pristine print of "How The West Was Won" in the 3-strip processs. Despite it's flaw - of which I admit there were a few like the seams in panoramic shots - I have till not to this day seen anything that comes close to beating that experience. Made me understand why people paid serious bucks and travelled far to see the new Cinerama films when they came out).

 

[Allison]

Bring back Cinerama (On a serious note, a few years ago I got to see a pristine print of "How The West Was Won" in the 3-strip processs. Despite it's flaw - of which I admit there were a few like the seams in panoramic shots - I have till not to this day seen anything that comes close to beating that experience. Made me understand why people paid serious bucks and travelled far to see the new Cinerama films when they came out).

Well...I was today years old when I found out there’s an actual movie called How The West Was Won from the 60’s, not just the Olsen twins TV movie How The West Was Fun from when I was 6.

 

[quinnmac000]

A24 will stay independent. The moment they get bought out by someone big, the talent connections go away.

Remember when NATO and AMC went off on Universal for not consulting them about the Trolls World Tour move? That got resolved fairly easily in the end because money talks. I suspect Warner will patch up their relationships.

Still though, it was bone-headed of them to just sort of wing it on this and not give even a courtesy heads up to anyone.

Trolls World Tour did have issues with Anna Kendrick being upset she wasn’t getting paid the box office backend due to it not being in cinemas for long time.

What if theaters made deals with a bunch of different streaming services to play their original content including mini-series with short runs in the theater. I'd pay $18-20 to see all the episodes of The Stand on the big screen, but I don't want to sign up for CBS all access.

There is so much great content coming out across so many services that to have them all is more expensive than cable and juggling around signing up and dropping services just to see what you want is a PITA.

Didn’t ABC/Marvel try that with Inhumans with great regret.
It seems most times they try something like this...it underperforms
—————————

I think people miss the biggest thing. Price. Disney+ was cheap for it assessed value. Adding high budget films increase that sun cost which in hard times deters people from wanting to utilize due to high cost per month.

What's going to happen when WW1984 doesn’t bring in the numbers WB expects which due to HBO Max being US only and the percentage of population on a limited income due to economic struggles will likely happen. Actually Tenet’s underperformance and Croods 2 over performance should be key indicators that this method isn’t a sure fire win. People were so certain Tenet would bring people in and it didn’t. AT&T will likely increase sub price to try to make up for losses when this strategy underperforms.

Also if I was a entertainment exec, 200 million dollar film or 10 episode mini series of same quality, there is greater value in 10 episode miniseries for streaming. A weekly release keep people watching longer. Streaming is going to kill the blockbuster in the long run especially if theaters go by the way side.

 

[rageofthegods]

A24 will stay independent. The moment they get bought out by someone big, the talent connections go away.




Trolls World Tour did have issues with Anna Kendrick being upset she wasn’t getting paid the box office backend due to it not being in cinemas for long time.




Didn’t ABC/Marvel try that with Inhumans with great regret.
It seems most times they try something like this...it underperforms
—————————

I think people miss the biggest thing. Price. Disney+ was cheap for it assessed value. Adding high budget films increase that sun cost which in hard times deters people from wanting to utilize due to high cost per month.

What's going to happen when WW1984 doesn’t bring in the numbers WB expects which due to HBO Max being US only and the percentage of population on a limited income due to economic struggles will likely happen. Actually Tenet’s underperformance and Croods 2 over performance should be key indicators that this method isn’t a sure fire win. People were so certain Tenet would bring people in and it didn’t. AT&T will likely increase sub price to try to make up for losses when this strategy underperforms.

Also if I was a entertainment exec, 200 million dollar film or 10 episode mini series of same quality, there is greater value in 10 episode miniseries for streaming. A weekly release keep people watching longer. Streaming is going to kill the blockbuster in the long run especially if theaters go by the way side.

Noted re:A24. I don't really know how they operate, so I'll defer on that.

I feel like Kilar and co are barking up the wrong tree with this 2021 strategy. It was certainly a problem that HBOM didn't have buzzy originals, but I think what was a bigger problem was that the branding was confusing and the distribution wasn't there and the marketing sucked. For a clear example of this, most legacy HBO subscribers that get Max for free still haven't signed up, despite there being literally no additional barriers of entry besides signing up. That's not an issue of content not being there to attract them - "it's what you already pay for, just with a lot more free stuff" is the best pitch you could hope for - it's an issue of consumers not knowing that they can get a bag of goodies for free or not being able to get their bag of goodies on their Roku.

I agree that WW84 is gonna underperform, if for no other reason then I think Warner marketing hasn't been delivering these past few years (with a few exceptions like Joker) and the fact that the pandemic and the delays has probably wreaked havoc on their original marketing roadmap.

I think I'm less pessimistic on the future of the theatrical blockbuster, though. There was a study done on Netflix viewership habits over time and they found that while the share of viewership of series has increased over the years, by now it's kinda stabilized to where people more or less spend 66% of their time watching series and 33% watching movies. That suggests that people still like watching movies on streaming despite the prevalence of series, and that they hold a different sort of appeal for people.

Streamers aren't really meaningfully incentivized to make these big blockbusters for the reasons you listed (not enough hours of content, inefficient use of capital), which means that the only way people are gonna get those kinds of movies are if studios are making them to make money off of. And since theaters are still basically the best price discrimination tool that studios have, they'll still go to theaters. And since consumers seem to think movies hold a different appeal to series, they'll continue to pay to see them in theaters. At least that's my reasoning.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Trolls World Tour did have issues with Anna Kendrick being upset she wasn’t getting paid the box office backend due to it not being in cinemas for long time.

This is the biggest issue right here. Actors like Bruce Willis and Robert Downey Jr. scored HUGE paydays from their gross-based incentives for Sixth Sense and Avengers. The studios need to come up with a new strategy as eliminating box-office pay is likely gonna dissuade a lot of talent from doing a movie.

 

[HalfGlass]

What's going to happen when WW1984 doesn’t bring in the numbers WB expects which due to HBO Max being US only and the percentage of population on a limited income due to economic struggles will likely happen. Actually Tenet’s underperformance and Croods 2 over performance should be key indicators that this method isn’t a sure fire win. People were so certain Tenet would bring people in and it didn’t. AT&T will likely increase sub price to try to make up for losses when this strategy underperforms.

And I know people have said “yeah but it’s a pain in the butt to unsubscribe and resubscribe multiple times for every movie that comes out”

Yeah it’s a pain, but a luxury some people can afford and others can’t. Plus - there’s only a handful of blockbusters on that list WB put out for 2021. There will be people who only think it’s worth paying to see 4 or 5 of those movies...so I can totally see people saying “well $15 for 4 months is $60, I’d much rather do that then spend $180 for the year even if I have to resubscribe a few times”

WB made this move to situate permanent subscribers due to consistent content, but as someone alluded to earlier, movies are 2 hour, one time watches. Series like the Mandalorian and future Marvel shows are what keep subscribers invested longer.

 

[Scott W.]

This is the biggest issue right here. Actors like Bruce Willis and Robert Downey Jr. scored HUGE paydays from their gross-based incentives for Sixth Sense and Avengers. The studios need to come up with a new strategy as eliminating box-office pay is likely gonna dissuade a lot of talent from doing a movie.

What other choice do the talent have?

 

[Nick]

What other choice do the talent have?

Yeah, I mean, if distribution changes model to go one way and actors still want to act and get paid, they either do it or they don't.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

I feel like Kilar and co are barking up the wrong tree with this 2021 strategy. It was certainly a problem that HBOM didn't have buzzy originals, but I think what was a bigger problem was that the branding was confusing and the distribution wasn't there and the marketing sucked. For a clear example of this, most legacy HBO subscribers that get Max for free still haven't signed up, despite there being literally no additional barriers of entry besides signing up. That's not an issue of content not being there to attract them - "it's what you already pay for, just with a lot more free stuff" is the best pitch you could hope for - it's an issue of consumers not knowing that they can get a bag of goodies for free or not being able to get their bag of goodies on their Roku.

The issue with Kilar is his background heavily rooted in streaming. He led Hulu between 2008-2013 then created a failed streaming service (ever heard of Vessel? No one has). He's not qualified to lead one of the largest, most important media conglomerates in the world when his perception of SVOD services is outdated. Kilar has thrown out significant Warner execs over the past few months who could've helped build HBO Max's programming goals. People with a strong understanding of the current television landscape like Kevin Reilly and Bob Greenblatt were among those let go, and as WarnerMedia continues downsizing and reconsolidating labor into HBO Max, their longterm strategies make no sense.

AT&T should've promoted someone internally instead of hiring Kilar externally. At the very least, they could've pulled a Disney/Chapek and test Kilar on a smaller-scale operation before promoting him to CEO.

 

[Nick]

The issue with Kilar is his background heavily rooted in streaming. He led Hulu between 2008-2013 then created a failed streaming service (ever heard of Vessel? No one has). He's not qualified to lead one of the largest, most important media conglomerates in the world when his perception of SVOD services is outdated. Kilar has thrown out significant Warner execs over the past few months who could've helped build HBO Max's programming goals. People with a strong understanding of the current television landscape like Kevin Reilly and Bob Greenblatt were among those let go, and as WarnerMedia continues downsizing and reconsolidating labor into HBO Max, their longterm strategies make no sense.

AT&T should've promoted someone internally instead of hiring Kilar externally. At the very least, they could've pulled a Disney/Chapek and test Kilar on a smaller-scale operation before promoting him to CEO.

They could also just look inwards at their pricing for why subscribership is low. HBO’s got good stuff, but $15/month ain’t it. Netflix is even smart enough to realize that and they offer tiered membership costs.