Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[AlexanderMBush]

Disney Considers Delaying Some 2023 Movie Releases Over Strikes

Walt Disney Co. is reviewing its schedule of film releases through the rest of the year and may delay some titles because striking actors won’t help promote the pictures, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

Another day, another report. Much like what WBD is considering, TWDC is considering delaying select films to a later timepoint in light of the SAG/WGA strikes. The films in question are Wish, Next Goal Wins, and Poor Things.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Next Goal wins would benefice I think, not sure about Wish

Blue Beetle if the film that REALLY needed to move but they for some reason stuck with August for some reason

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Ugh I’m so excited for Wish, but, it’d be in a very contentious animated film year. It’s essentially guarenteed win in 2025 if they want it. Makes sense.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Blue Beetle if the film that REALLY needed to move but they for some reason stuck with August for some reason

I think the reason why Blue Beetle might actually be out of options is due to the that they have now to the time of release not being long enough to let exhibitors and theaters be ready for a change quite like that, alongside the brands that they'd be synergizing and promoting for the sake of Beetle.

I think if the strike happened sooner, it'd be pushed to Aquaman's spot no problem--but because of circumstances beyond it's station, it is simply out of hands.

Speaking of the oceanic man, I am shocked that film hasn't been tax-write offed yet.

 

[Nick]

Dune 2 supposedly on the table for a delay as well. I think if we get to September and no deal between studios and SAG, then delays will ultimately have to happen as the films can’t really be promoted.

 

[belloq87]

I cannot believe we might be walking back into a theatrical shutdown of indefinite length again (this time of the industry's own making). It's absurd to do this to the marketplace.

If I were president of NATO, I'd be spending all day, every day, for as long as it takes, calling studio heads and pleading for a speedy resolution (if the plan really is to push back entire slates again in the absence of the SAG strike ending).

 

[Tobias]

Dune 2 supposedly on the table for a delay as well. I think if we get to September and no deal between studios and SAG, then delays will ultimately have to happen as the films can’t really be promoted.

And if that happens, I think that's when Wall Street will show they really don't have the Studio's backs like some studio execs say they do. All it takes is a clear lack of a fiscal and they want nothing to do with ya'.

 

[Nick]

I cannot believe we might be walking back into a theatrical shutdown of indefinite length again (this time of the industry's own making). It's absurd to do this to the marketplace.

If I were president of NATO, I'd be spending all day, every day, for as long as it takes, calling studio heads and pleading for a speedy resolution (if the plan really is to push back entire slates again in the absence of the SAG strike ending).

This wouldn’t be as bad as the COVID pushed films were theatrical movie going literally stopped. This would be more like the major blockbusters OR movies that have are relying on a big name star.

Dune 2 for example will do *fine* without a big red carpet premiere and doing chicken wing interviews, but the big name cast out there promoting it is what will propel buzz around it to do great. They’re leaving money on the table by releasing without actor promotion essentially.

A movie like The Marvels, due to it being MCU though, I think will do the same without actors promoting as it would with that promotion. There’s a sect of the fandom that simply wants this movie to fail anyway.

 

[belloq87]

This wouldn’t be as bad as the COVID pushed films were theatrical movie going literally stopped. This would be more like the major blockbusters OR movies that have are relying on a big name star.

Dune 2 for example will do *fine* without a big red carpet premiere and doing chicken wing interviews, but the big name cast out there promoting it is what will propel buzz around it to do great.

Even if releases aren't down to absolute zero, theaters still need a robust amount of product. Last year's August-through-AVATAR dead zone was brutal for a lot of theaters; sure, there were technically movies in release, but nothing big that got anybody excited. Repeating that would be a mistake, I think. Studios should release what they have when it's ready to be released, and if that means there are dead zones next year because of the strike, take the hit then.

No matter what happens, it seems theaters are going to have to deal with another stretch of lack of product eventually. I'd rather see moviegoing stay robust this year, get (or keep) people back in the habit of going to theaters, and then deal with a thin schedule in 2024 if it comes to that.

 

[Nick]

Even if releases aren't down to absolute zero, theaters still need a robust amount of product. Last year's August-through-AVATAR dead zone was brutal for a lot of theaters; sure, there were technically movies in release, but nothing big that got anybody excited. Repeating that would be a mistake, I think. Studios should release what they have when it's ready to be released, and if that means there are dead zones next year because of the strike, take the hit then.

No matter what happens, it seems theaters are going to have to deal with another stretch of lack of product eventually. I'd rather see moviegoing stay robust this year, get (or keep) people back in the habit of going to theaters, and then deal with a thin schedule in 2024 if it comes to that.

I think more of a spreading out of schedules is what we would see. studios will begin to look forward and realize that films they thought they could release in 2024 will now have to be 2025 so their logic will be to shift some of this year to next year.

I’m mixed on it because the studios should suffer financially for not being reasonable in these negotiations, but also there’s the talent that you don’t want to see harmed either (and they would be by low performing movies). The talent would probably rather wait until they can promote than release during a strike.

 

[belloq87]

Beyond the gamesmanship of what pain points are necessary to bring an end to the strike(s), I want an industry that is theatrically healthy/healthier longterm, and I think that means continuing to supply theaters with movies to run at this point in time.

The bill for the work stoppage is going to come due eventually. Deal with it then, not now. It just feels like short-sighted, cut-off-nose-to-spite-face stuff from the studios. I defy any studio exec to show me the person who won't go see DUNE: PART TWO unless Timothee Chalamet turns up on a red carpet somewhere.

 

[Nick]

Beyond the gamesmanship of what pain points are necessary to bring an end to the strike(s), I want an industry that is theatrically healthy/healthier longterm, and I think that means continuing to supply theaters with movies to run at this point in time.

The bill for the work stoppage is going to come due eventually. Deal with it then, not now. It just feels like short-sighted, cut-off-nose-to-spite-face stuff from the studios. I defy any studio exec to show me the person who won't go see DUNE: PART TWO unless Timothee Chalamet turns up on a red carpet somewhere.

Movies are not going to thrive however if they cannot be promoted other than trailers and RT scores. I think all Hollywood execs will have their eye out for how movies opening over the next month or two do versus original projections.

Blue Beetle not being able to promote Blue Beetle is a problem, for instance. Haunted Mansion coming out like a fart in the wind (I haven’t seen any promotion for it except when I’ve been in a theater), is a problem.

Also a problem - Disney getting Premium screens for Haunted Mansion is a crime when Barbie and Oppenheimer are out. I simply can’t see Barbie or Oppenheimer in Dolby here in Orlando at least this coming weekend bc HM has ALL the Dolby this weekend. It’s insane the contracts theaters sign with Disney. Just another example of why Disney Springs AMC needs a second Dolby theater.

 

[Andysol]

Dune 2 supposedly on the table for a delay as well. I think if we get to September and no deal between studios and SAG, then delays will ultimately have to happen as the films can’t really be promoted.

Small correction: They can still be promoted, they just aren't going to be on late night shows or from the actors doing the rounds. But all the backend marketing that does promotion is unaffected by the strike. They're still creating trailers and advertisements like usual.

So it's promoted, just differently. But yes, obviously losing the actors promoting hurts.

 

[belloq87]

I think all Hollywood execs will have their eye out for how movies opening over the next month or two do versus original projections.

That will be a bit of an unfair metric, given that nothing coming for the rest of the summer was ever going to be really giant to begin with. A couple sleeper possibilities, even in the best circumstances.

But even so, your point is an argument for execs to get back at the negotiating table, not for torpedoing the release calendar indefinitely.

 

[Nick]

Small correction: They can still be promoted, they just aren't going to be on late night shows or from the actors doing the rounds. But all the backend marketing that does promotion is unaffected by the strike. They're still creating trailers and advertisements like usual.

So it's promoted, just differently. But yes, obviously losing the actors promoting hurts.

Yes, that’s what I was implying. Execs can talk and trailers can play, but that only goes so far.

That will be a bit of an unfair metric, given that nothing coming for the rest of the summer was ever going to be really giant to begin with. A couple sleeper possibilities, even in the best circumstances.

But even so, your point is an argument for execs to get back at the negotiating table, not for torpedoing the release calendar indefinitely.

That’s why I said execs will look to see how they perform compared to projections. If they wildly underperform even low expectations, then the CEOs will take that to Wall Street as proof of why they are bumping films.

Also, I think Studios are willing to go as far as pushing off movies. I also think it’s a potential negotiating tactic (leaking stories like the one below that movies may get pushed) that I don’t think has a shot of working with SAG.

‘Dune 2’ Eyes Push to 2024; Warner Bros. Considers New Dates for ‘Color Purple,’ ‘Aquaman 2’ (EXCLUSIVE)

The sequel to Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic “Dune” may be riding a sandworm all the way to 2024. Amid two contentious Hollywood labor strikes, Warner Bros. Film Group is strongly…

variety.com

 

[Jerroddragon]

Dan Talking about just how great of a weekend this was for Theaters.


Since we are talking about films that needed to be pushed back (I think Dune doesn't need to move, the hype seems pretty high)
1) Transformers, I know this film did fine but think if it came out at a less bust time it would have done even better
2) Elemental, same as the film above. I know it has legs but think it could have done soooo much better if not up against Spiderman
3) Teenage Kraken, no idea if this film would have ever done amazing but for sure against Spiderman it was always going to die
4) Mission Impossible, I know Tom last film did amazing but coming out when it did and with Pre ticket sales for Barbie/Oppenheimer so high they should have moved this film
5) Blue Beetle and HM, I think both will do.....ok but I think HM would do much better in October and BB just needs to get away from Barbie.

As for Indy....i think the film came out at a great time but the film I think would not do amazing no matter when it came out. It was a fine film but nothing to ever make up for its budget and after crystal skull they should have known the film needed to be a 9/10 to get people to see it

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

Also, I think Studios are willing to go as far as pushing off movies. I also think it’s a potential negotiating tactic (leaking stories like the one below that movies may get pushed) that I don’t think has a shot of working with SAG.

I'm caught between thinking these deliberate leaks of studio politicking over release dates is either one of many tactics to turn the public against the strikes or something the studios, in their grand ignorance, will actually do.

I will note that so far, the only movies that have been delayed or buzzy auteur-driven releases like Challengers and Poor Things that are eagerly anticipated by film fans but aren't driving the company's bottom line as a Dune or animated film would.

 

[Nick]

Dan Talking about just how great of a weekend this was for Theaters.


Since we are talking about films that needed to be pushed back (I think Dune doesn't need to move, the hype seems pretty high)
1) Transformers, I know this film did fine but think if it came out at a less bust time it would have done even better
2) Elemental, same as the film above. I know it has legs but think it could have done soooo much better if not up against Spiderman
3) Teenage Kraken, no idea if this film would have ever done amazing but for sure against Spiderman it was always going to die
4) Mission Impossible, I know Tom last film did amazing but coming out when it did and with Pre ticket sales for Barbie/Oppenheimer so high they should have moved this film
5) Blue Beetle and HM, I think both will do.....ok but I think HM would do much better in October and BB just needs to get away from Barbie.

As for Indy....i think the film came out at a great time but the film I think would not do amazing no matter when it came out. It was a fine film but nothing to ever make up for its budget and after crystal skull they should have known the film needed to be a 9/10 to get people to see it

There’s only so many release dates man. Studios don’t generally like going far into august either bc school is starting up again. There was a pile up of films from COVID still that all had to come out so it was just simply a wall to wall summer.

 

[Jerroddragon]

There’s only so many release dates man. Studios don’t generally like going far into august either bc school is starting up again. There was a pile up of films from COVID still that all had to come out so it was just simply a wall to wall summer.

I don't get why they have to be out now.....

Summer isn't what it used to be, sometimes its nice to be in a dead area. HM for zerrrrrro reasons needs to be out now, when Halloween time has no big films coming out that I know of
But in the end even if all those films I listed could not move...half should have. Teen Kraken and Mission Impossible had to know they were in danger weeks if not months before

Along with the writers strike, Cruise must have had faith in the studios making a deal because once the strikes started for the writers I'd have seen danger of the actors as well and with ZERO press many of these films are just going to get killed because there are too many films and way less ways to market them with no late night or interviews

 

[Nick]

I don't get why they have to be out now.....

Summer isn't what it used to be, sometimes its nice to be in a dead area. HM for zerrrrrro reasons needs to be out now, when Halloween time has no big films coming out that I know of
But in the end even if all those films I listed could not move...half should have. Teen Kraken and Mission Impossible had to know they were in danger weeks if not months before

Along with the writers strike, Cruise must have had faith in the studios making a deal because once the strikes started for the writers I'd have seen danger of the actors as well and with ZERO press many of these films are just going to get killed because there are too many films and way less ways to market them with no late night or interviews

I agree HM makes no sense coming out now. On the other hand, The Marvels was originally in this slot so at least Disney got out of the Barbrnheimer way bc that would’ve torpedoed Marvels.