Universal Orlando Resort Expansion (Part 1)

[JungleSkip]

therefore I do not believe they should build a third gate until they are without means of expanding their current parks any further.

But...they're basically there. Hotel 5 will start construction soon. IoA has 2 expansion plots left after Kong. USF has one. The water park should be starting up soon as well and will take up the last remaining tract of open land on the resort.

You don't wait until you're backed into a corner to start making your next move. Hotel 7 has already been agreed upon as not being located on the curren UOR campus. They're looking to buy land.

 

[mahnamahna]

But...they're basically there. Hotel 5 will start construction soon. IoA has 2 expansion plots left after Kong. USF has one. The water park should be starting up soon as well and will take up the last remaining tract of open land on the resort.

You don't wait until you're backed into a corner to start making your next move. Hotel 7 has already been agreed upon as not being located on the curren UOR campus. They're looking to buy land.

If you count LC and TL (front half specifically), there's really 4 - especially since I'd imagine whatever replaces either of those would likely be bulldozed and started from scratch like what happened with JAWS.

But I agree that by 2018/2019, both parks are going to be pretty well-rounded and filled with enough stuff to do to occupy a full day for the average guest. They'll have Hotel 5 and possibly Hotel 6 up as well. I'd imagine Hotel 7 would open up alongside the 3rd gate.

While the 3rd gate could be a ways off, the CEO made the bold claim that Universal Orlando would be completely different by 2020... so I'm expecting most of the expansion for USF/IOA would be done this decade. Especially since USF hasn't expanded much aside from KidZone and Diagon adding more than what was there before. IOA only really got FJ and HE for the last 15 years as far as major additions go (Seuss Trolley, Unicorn and Storm Force were necessary kiddie additions, but nothing major).

I don't think they'd have 3 more hotels gearing up for construction and a waterpark in the works if they were taking a "wait and see" approach on a 3rd gate Clearly, they're expanding their resort options for an eventual 3rd gate - maybe not the next 5 years... wouldn't be shocked if it opened in 2019 since Comcast has shown they're a bit trigger-happy with expansion :thumbs: but 2021-2024 is reasonable. By 2017/2018, I'd expect them to slow down a little bit (maybe replacements for Shrek, Twister and T2 each year until the 3rd gate?)

 

[youhow2]

I wonder what happened to that apparent IOA lagoon show... Did it sizzle and fade... or did it go into development?

 

[JungleSkip]

If you count LC and TL (front half specifically), there's really 4 - especially since I'd imagine whatever replaces either of those would likely be bulldozed and started from scratch like what happened with JAWS.

I don't count them, because as of now there's nothing solid saying they're going to be replaced.

 

[shiekra38]

I wonder what happened to that apparent IOA lagoon show... Did it sizzle and fade... or did it go into development?

Well the buoys are still out there so I would imagine it is 'delayed' maybe till next summer?

 

[mahnamahna]

I don't count them, because as of now there's nothing solid saying they're going to be replaced.

True, but I'd expect something for both at some point over the next decade.. the Toon Lagoon front area getting bulldozed and completely redone would be nice and could even surpass Springfield when you consider how much the TL theater/carnival games/Comic Strip Cafe area takes up. LC has proposals, but I agree there's nothing majorly solid as far as replacements go

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Well the buoys are still out there so I would imagine it is 'delayed' maybe till next summer?

Yeah, probably set to open with Kong next summer.

 

[AK-Jake]

But...they're basically there. Hotel 5 will start construction soon. IoA has 2 expansion plots left after Kong. USF has one. The water park should be starting up soon as well and will take up the last remaining tract of open land on the resort.

You don't wait until you're backed into a corner to start making your next move. Hotel 7 has already been agreed upon as not being located on the curren UOR campus. They're looking to buy land.

Agreed. And if the 2021 rumored opening date of the third gate has ANY semblance of truth to it, then the existing UOR resort is pretty well going to be fully-developed and out of room by the time the new park opens.

Skip, what are the 2 expansion plots in IOA? There's room in Seuss, but where else? The Trike Plot?

And did Uni actually already BUY land (outside of WnW), or are they still in the process of trying to acquire some? I never heard either way...then again, it might not be public knowledge yet.

 

[JungleSkip]

Skip, what are the 2 expansion plots in IOA? There's room in Seuss, but where else? The Trike Plot?

Dang it, I forgot about the Trike plot. So IoA has three: Trike, Toon Lagoon Theater, and Seuss Expansion plot.

And did Uni actually already BUY land (outside of WnW), or are they still in the process of trying to acquire some? I never heard either way...then again, it might not be public knowledge yet.

I don't believe they have, but I'm not the land ownership expert.

 

[TylerDurden]

But...they're basically there. Hotel 5 will start construction soon. IoA has 2 expansion plots left after Kong. USF has one. The water park should be starting up soon as well and will take up the last remaining tract of open land on the resort.

You don't wait until you're backed into a corner to start making your next move. Hotel 7 has already been agreed upon as not being located on the curren UOR campus. They're looking to buy land.

The physical space doesnt matter. The place could be packed to the brim with rides, but if its still only pulling mediocre numbers, theyre not going to bother going through the trouble of adding another park.

Cabana Bay just opened, and it coincides with a huge expansion proven to make money...we dont know that it will be full a few years from now, though. Universal is still an add-on to a Disney vacation for most folks, even in Harry Potter's peak. Without more Potter expansions to keep promoting, how will Universal push themselves ahead? A resort with three parks (hey, by the way, thats more in one resort than ANY other theme park resort in the world except for the #1 most successful one) means it will require guests revolving their vacation around it so it can sustain itself...a 3-park resort wont be successful as an add-on to Disney World.

You guys are looking at it as "Universal is making a ton of money right now but is too landlocked to add stuff, so lets get a third gate going!". In reality, a 3rd gate has to compliment your existing parks because theyre overcrowded or because theres a huge public demand for it. Considering Universal is nowhere near hitting capacity and Orlando is the theme park leader, I dont think the demand is there yet. You cant just look at it in terms of now, you have to look at how things will play out in the future. If a few years from now CBBR is consistently being booked up, the two exisiting parks are consistently crowded, AND Universal has taken a percentage of Disney's guests (which judging by attendance numbers, they havent yet), then a third gate is possible. But until then, two parks is more than enough for the resort. Theres absolutely no need for another one at the moment.

 

[AK-Jake]

Dang it, I forgot about the Trike plot. So IoA has three: Trike, Toon Lagoon Theater, and Seuss Expansion plot.

^Gotcha. And I also forgot about the TL Theater. That's some primo development space, but I guess I've always assumed that they'll use it for whatever the future TL replacement plan is.

The future is so exciting...I look forward to seeing the resort in 10 years! Wait, scratch that: I'll be an old man then. Nah, I can wait.

 

[mahnamahna]

The physical space doesnt matter. The place could be packed to the brim with rides, but if its still only pulling mediocre numbers, theyre not going to bother going through the trouble of adding another park.

Cabana Bay just opened, and it coincides with a huge expansion proven to make money...we dont know that it will be full a few years from now, though. Universal is still an add-on to a Disney vacation for most folks, even in Harry Potter's peak. Without more Potter expansions to keep promoting, how will Universal push themselves ahead? A resort with three parks (hey, by the way, thats more in one resort than ANY other theme park resort in the world except for the #1 most successful one) means it will require guests revolving their vacation around it so it can sustain itself...a 3-park resort wont be successful as an add-on to Disney World.

You guys are looking at it as "Universal is making a ton of money right now but is too landlocked to add stuff, so lets get a third gate going!". In reality, a 3rd gate has to compliment your existing parks because theyre overcrowded or because theres a huge public demand for it. Considering Universal is nowhere near hitting capacity and Orlando is the theme park leader, I dont think the demand is there yet. You cant just look at it in terms of now, you have to look at how things will play out in the future. If a few years from now CBBR is consistently being booked up, the two exisiting parks are consistently crowded, AND Universal has taken a percentage of Disney's guests (which judging by attendance numbers, they havent yet), then a third gate is possible. But until then, two parks is more than enough for the resort. Theres absolutely no need for another one at the moment.

...you do realize Diagon, Kong and KidZone are basically going to cause a huge increase in attendance? both parks will likely be at 8.5 million each this year, both should pass 9 million in 2015 with Kong and the 25th celebration and Diagon's first full year, with KidZone bringing them each to somewhere around 9.5 million by 2016.

It's not science when you consider that both parks have a shot at over 10 million each by the end of the decade. Potter isn't a fad - and it's Universal's first smash hit of the theme park world. IOA is pretty much locked for 10 million guests by 2017 if they do the JP revamp in addition to something for Seuss. But both should get past 10 million each by 2020 which would be enough for a 3rd gate. Guest spending is through the roof, so 15-20 million each wouldn't be necessary for a 3rd gate, but I do get how there needs to be a little demand.

You just seem like you're being totally pessimistic about how much Universal Orlando will increase in attendance, though. In 3 years, IOA added 2.2 million from just Potter. USF added over a million without anything on the scale of Potter. Diagon and HE are bound to cause some noticeable increases in attendance. All of the other additions/expansions in the work are only going to help the growth. Comcast wouldn't greenlight/plan all of these expansions if they hadnt calculated the potential market and how much demand there is. How many attendance would you expect at each park before a 3rd gate? Universal has to strike while the momentum is on there and before Disney bothers to add Star Wars Land 2021 isn't unreasonable since it sounds like the 3rd gate plans weren't started yesterday. 7 years is enough to grow attendance at both parks. Although I could see 2024 or so being more likely

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^Gotcha. And I also forgot about the TL Theater. That's some primo development space, but I guess I've always assumed that they'll use it for whatever the future TL replacement plan is.

The future is so exciting...I look forward to seeing the resort in 10 years! Wait, scratch that: I'll be an old man then. Nah, I can wait.

Yeah that whole front area of Toon Lagoon could fit a dark ride, show and maybe a flat if they bulldozed it and started from scratch. That whole section is a jumbled mess

 

[shiekra38]

The physical space doesnt matter. The place could be packed to the brim with rides, but if its still only pulling mediocre numbers, theyre not going to bother going through the trouble of adding another park.

Cabana Bay just opened, and it coincides with a huge expansion proven to make money...we dont know that it will be full a few years from now, though. Universal is still an add-on to a Disney vacation for most folks, even in Harry Potter's peak. Without more Potter expansions to keep promoting, how will Universal push themselves ahead? A resort with three parks (hey, by the way, thats more in one resort than ANY other theme park resort in the world except for the #1 most successful one) means it will require guests revolving their vacation around it so it can sustain itself...a 3-park resort wont be successful as an add-on to Disney World.

You guys are looking at it as "Universal is making a ton of money right now but is too landlocked to add stuff, so lets get a third gate going!". In reality, a 3rd gate has to compliment your existing parks because theyre overcrowded or because theres a huge public demand for it. Considering Universal is nowhere near hitting capacity and Orlando is the theme park leader, I dont think the demand is there yet. You cant just look at it in terms of now, you have to look at how things will play out in the future. If a few years from now CBBR is consistently being booked up, the two exisiting parks are consistently crowded, AND Universal has taken a percentage of Disney's guests (which judging by attendance numbers, they havent yet), then a third gate is possible. But until then, two parks is more than enough for the resort. Theres absolutely no need for another one at the moment.

My feelings exactly...A 3rd gate is terrifying because I don't want to see Universal go through what they went through in the IOA days again..

 

[TylerDurden]

...you do realize Diagon, Kong and KidZone are basically going to cause a huge increase in attendance? both parks will likely be at 8.5 million each this year, both should pass 9 million in 2015 with Kong and the 25th celebration and Diagon's first full year, with KidZone bringing them each to somewhere around 9.5 million by 2016.

It's not science when you consider that both parks have a shot at over 10 million each by the end of the decade. Potter isn't a fad - and it's Universal's first smash hit of the theme park world. IOA is pretty much locked for 10 million guests by 2017 if they do the JP revamp in addition to something for Seuss. But both should get past 10 million each by 2020 which would be enough for a 3rd gate. Guest spending is through the roof, so 15-20 million each wouldn't be necessary for a 3rd gate, but I do get how there needs to be a little demand.

You just seem like you're being totally pessimistic about how much Universal Orlando will increase in attendance, though. In 3 years, IOA added 2.2 million from just Potter. USF added over a million without anything on the scale of Potter. Diagon and HE are bound to cause some noticeable increases in attendance. All of the other additions/expansions in the work are only going to help the growth. Comcast wouldn't greenlight/plan all of these expansions if they hadnt calculated the potential market and how much demand there is. How many attendance would you expect at each park before a 3rd gate? Universal has to strike while the momentum is on there and before Disney bothers to add Star Wars Land 2021 isn't unreasonable since it sounds like the 3rd gate plans weren't started yesterday. 7 years is enough to grow attendance at both parks. Although I could see 2024 or so being more likely

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Yeah that whole front area of Toon Lagoon could fit a dark ride, show and maybe a flat if they bulldozed it and started from scratch. That whole section is a jumbled mess

I really dont mean to come off as pessimistic so much as I do conservative. Yes, those expansions you mentioned will bring increases in attendance, but not Potter-level. And yes, Potter is not a fad, I agree, but the hype will wear off in time simply because soon it wont be new anymore.

I just dont see the need for Universal to stretch thin. Theres not one reason for a third gate except for "I want one". I think Universal is definitely expanding, but when you add a third park youre assuming people are going to revolve their vacations around that resort. If Universal was in Branson, Missouri pulling these numbers I'd think for sure, bring on a third gate. But we're talking about WDW's next-door neighbor. Two week-long resorts in the same area is pushing it, especially considering the jump WDW has on Universal.

Im not saying itll never happen because I dont know. But just because theyre looking at land doesnt guarantee a third gate...if that was a guarantee, Disney America, Westcot, and DisneySea Long Island would be real. Im just throwing it out there that maintaining a three-park resort isnt as easy as "we have the money lets just do it".

 

[youhow2]

I think this is the time Uni needs to pull a trigger on a third gate. They need to swing hard while they are up. Uni's newly added themed lands right now are on the next-level. A park full of these lands in the U.S, if they can maintain the level of "magic" across an entire park as atleast potter 1.0, build a park more accessible to younger families, they would positively destroy Disney and would create a dent in their share of the market. Right now at the height of their popularity for potter they need to do something next level, and yes it's a risk... But for owning a large chunk of the Orlando theme park market, this may very well be their only shot, unless another potter comes along. I don't think they'll hold their breath while expanding.

Also honestly, with apparent plans for at least 2-3 more hotels, Documentation showing Uni's interest in buying property, and plans for a water park I can honestly see a new park being announced in the next 5-8 years.

 

[mahnamahna]

I really dont mean to come off as pessimistic so much as I do conservative. Yes, those expansions you mentioned will bring increases in attendance, but not Potter-level. And yes, Potter is not a fad, I agree, but the hype will wear off in time simply because soon it wont be new anymore.

I just dont see the need for Universal to stretch thin. Theres not one reason for a third gate except for "I want one". I think Universal is definitely expanding, but when you add a third park youre assuming people are going to revolve their vacations around that resort. If Universal was in Branson, Missouri pulling these numbers I'd think for sure, bring on a third gate. But we're talking about WDW's next-door neighbor. Two week-long resorts in the same area is pushing it, especially considering the jump WDW has on Universal.

Im not saying itll never happen because I dont know. But just because theyre looking at land doesnt guarantee a third gate...if that was a guarantee, Disney America, Westcot, and DisneySea Long Island would be real. Im just throwing it out there that maintaining a three-park resort isnt as easy as "we have the money lets just do it".

True, nothing's locked in stone, but I can't imagine why they would need 7 hotels if it's just 2 parks... I agree that we won't see a 3rd gate for a while, but really, Comcast has shown they can get a lot done in a short amount of time, so I'd imagine they could easily get the two current parks up to speed. The problem is like you mentioned - getting USF and IOA to the attendance levels necessary for a 3rd gate (I'd say both would have to be where DHS, AK, and Epcot currently are - 10 to 11 million). Two full-week resorts is cutting it close - but like others have said, you can easily do USF and IOA in less than a day each. Throw in a 3rd gate and water park - most would probably stay 3 or 4 days. There'd still be room for Disney - just not the 5 to 7 day ones they currently get from most guests. MK and Epcot will do fine since they're already full day parks.

DHS and AK are the two I'd reckon is what's in Comcast's sights. Pandora will get AK to maybe 11.5-12 million. DHS has no additions for the next 5 years at least... and Spirit at WDWMagic was hinting that TDO isn't sure about Star Wars since it's too "boy centric" so we may not get anything Star Wars until the 50th at WDW.

Potter has grown the market exponentially - and other IPs like LOTR and Nintendo could expand the market even more. Once people start realizing that Universal has something new and exciting every year, vacations may shift - especially when you consider how much WDW wasted on MM+. Not over night, not next year, not even 2016, but by Pandora, Disney's going to find out far too late that Universal is sneaking into the big boys club. Really, over 10 million each and 3 to 4 million for the water park/theme park hybrid would be enough for Comcast to begin considering a 3rd gate... maybe 11 million just to be safe, but by then, the parks would definitely generate enough revenue where a 3rd gate would be to Comcast's benefit.

And it's true that Disney is the only theme park company with more than 2 true theme parks - so I definitely would want Universal to be careful about not taking on too much. But if LOTR doesn't work out, a 3rd gate is really the only thing I could see combating Star Wars Land in terms of hype/momentum.

 

[mahnamahna]

I think this is the time Uni needs to pull a trigger on a third gate. They need to swing hard while they are up. Uni's newly added themed lands right now are on the next-level. A park full of these lands in the U.S, if they can maintain the level of "magic" across an entire park as atleast potter 1.0, build a park more accessible to younger families, they would positively destroy Disney and would create a dent in their share of the market. Right now at the height of their popularity for potter they need to do something next level, and yes it's a risk... But for owning a large chunk of the Orlando theme park market, this may very well be their only shot, unless another potter comes along. I don't think they'll hold their breath while expanding.

Also honestly, with apparent plans for at least 2-3 more hotels, Documentation showing Uni's interest in buying property, and plans for a water park I can honestly see a new park being announced in the next 5-8 years.

I definitely agree that the 3rd gate should be more family-friendly than the two current ones - less focus on thrills without sacrificing the immersion. I'd love to see them announce the 3rd gate right around when Pandora opens, then set the opening date for October 1st, 2021 spoil the two biggest things Disney's doing over the next 7 years.

But I'd be leery to see Universal rush a 3rd gate... I want it done right - which I trust they can do! Potter really is an IP that you aren't going to get a chance at again. Plus, like you mentioned, they're not adding 3 more hotels for just a 2 theme park resort.

 

[Cole]

If TDO is seriously thinking of canceling a Star Wars land then a mass firing of every member needs to happen. I hope to god this is just a rumor because if it isn't then I'm done with Disney world and the human race as a whole. That'll be the straw that broke the camels back

 

[mahnamahna]

If TDO is seriously thinking of canceling a Star Wars land then a mass firing of every member needs to happen. I hope to god this is just a rumor because if it isn't then I'm done with Disney world and the human race as a whole. That'll be the straw that broke the camels back

The Schwartz is strong with this one

If we do get it, the insiders at WDWMagic said it'd be 2019 at the earliest. I was shaking my head with disbelief reading the totally idiotic "Star Wars + Pandora might be too boy-centric" reasoning. Star Wars Land might actually get me to actually stay at one of those overpriced "value resorts" at WDW

Yes, TDO is known for cancelling amazing ideas/attractions - Western River Expedition, Fire Mountain, Bald Mountain, pretty much anything on the drawing board for WS aside from the Frozen overlay would be amazing at this point :rofl:, Beastly Kingdom, etc.

But I'm still hoping they aren't that incompetent to not realize just how much profit a Star Wars Land would bring in. If they are, I hope Comcast doesn't let up on the gas :thumbs:

 

[Cole]

Well if they give up on Star Wars and continue with revision after revision of avatar to follow up with the sequels then I'll be just furious. Like it's not even a risk!!! They could make a literal clone of Ellen's energy adventure at MGM but replace Ellen with a CGI yoda and it would make BILLIONS!!!! Star Wars is the most profitable thing since water and if they really think that "it's too boy centric" then what is their damage?

 

[Disneyhead]

They are afraid Star Wars is too boy centric, yet chock their parks with Princess everything.