Universal's Epic Universe General News & Discussion

[JoeCamel]

Let's be honest about what "a seismic shift" in Disneys eyes, as little ase ~7.5-10% of WDW visitors would cause major problems for investors and Chapek. But before you "but Tommy Disney wouldn't lose that many visitors to Universal" I'll remind you that Between 1990 & 1994 Disney World haemorrhaged visitors, they lost 5 million visitors (around 15% of their visitor numbers at the time) in the space of five years because people didn't feel they were getting value for money. Eisner had spent ten years scalping people with ticket price increases and people voted with their feet. Incidentally 5 million visitors is around 8.4% of 2019 visitor numbers. We all of course know what 1998's response to this problem was, but lets be realistic about how quick Disney can respond to the threat of EU/USF expansion in the coming years

Once in a lifetime theme park happenings in Orlando, what a time to be there on the front lines

 

[Mad Dog]

Let's be honest about what "a seismic shift" in Disneys eyes, as little ase ~7.5-10% of WDW visitors would cause major problems for investors and Chapek. But before you "but Tommy Disney wouldn't lose that many visitors to Universal" I'll remind you that Between 1990 & 1994 Disney World haemorrhaged visitors, they lost 5 million visitors (around 15% of their visitor numbers at the time) in the space of five years because people didn't feel they were getting value for money. Eisner had spent ten years scalping people with ticket price increases and people voted with their feet. Incidentally 5 million visitors is around 8.4% of 2019 visitor numbers. We all of course know what 1998's response to this problem was, but lets be realistic about how quick Disney can respond to the threat of EU/USF expansion in the coming years

Yes. Generally, those of us in the camp that Epic will make a dent in WDW aren't talking about any huge percentage changes, just a few percent a year come 2025, but incrementally that adds up. . But what's most troubling for Disney is if there's a 'slow' deterioration of the guest segment that stays on site and spends the big money. Universal is getting a pretty strong hold on the age demographic that will be spending big in theme parks for the next couple decades. Follow the money. Disney's huge size is also a huge detriment if income doesn't constantly increase. WDW has a sprawling infrastructure that's quite expensive to maintain.....and an investment base that demands large profits be returned to the stockholders instead of being reinvested in the parks. WDW has been a cash cow for Disney for quite some time.......

 

[OrlLover]

Let's be honest about what "a seismic shift" in Disneys eyes, as little ase ~7.5-10% of WDW visitors would cause major problems for investors and Chapek. But before you "but Tommy Disney wouldn't lose that many visitors to Universal" I'll remind you that Between 1990 & 1994 Disney World haemorrhaged visitors, they lost 5 million visitors (around 15% of their visitor numbers at the time) in the space of five years because people didn't feel they were getting value for money. Eisner had spent ten years scalping people with ticket price increases and people voted with their feet. Incidentally 5 million visitors is around 8.4% of 2019 visitor numbers. We all of course know what 1998's response to this problem was, but lets be realistic about how quick Disney can respond to the threat of EU/USF expansion in the coming years

Believe me I think Disney is watching what’s going on the down the street. Whether they respond or not I’m pretty sure depends if they feel “threatened” enough. As a theme park fan I would love for them to continue to invest into WDW.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

Not going to go too far down this road, but I'd call it a safe bet that they're also crushing their pre-Covid rate records.

Honestly? No.

"Disney's secretly doing better than 2017, 2018, and 2019 and just not telling anyone. Also capacity is the same not due to staffing." Sure thing, and you're saying I'm the not living in reality?

Let's be honest about what "a seismic shift" in Disneys eyes, as little ase ~7.5-10% of WDW visitors would cause major problems for investors and Chapek. But before you "but Tommy Disney wouldn't lose that many visitors to Universal" I'll remind you that Between 1990 & 1994 Disney World haemorrhaged visitors, they lost 5 million visitors (around 15% of their visitor numbers at the time) in the space of five years because people didn't feel they were getting value for money. Eisner had spent ten years scalping people with ticket price increases and people voted with their feet. Incidentally 5 million visitors is around 8.4% of 2019 visitor numbers. We all of course know what 1998's response to this problem was, but lets be realistic about how quick Disney can respond to the threat of EU/USF expansion in the coming years

Universal can never touch MK and Epcot in terms of pure park size and capacity, they just hold more people comfortably and will always be up there. But USF/IOA/EU pulling in 10 mill a year each seems really reasonable. And as you said, it takes just a little bit to bite off a lot.

 

[belloq87]

Eisner had spent ten years scalping people with ticket price increases

I think this is a somewhat unfair characterization.

The first ten years of Eisner's time was the most aggressive period of expansion in WDW's history, so it's not like they were just raising prices just to raise prices.

 

[Parkscope Joe]

I think this is a somewhat unfair characterization.

The first ten years of Eisner's time was the most aggressive period of expansion in WDW's history, so it's not like they were just raising prices just to raise prices.

But it does show there's a limit to what you can raise and Eisner over corrected. Plus, and I think what Tommy is getting at, what else happened between 1990 and 1994.

 

[Mad Dog]

WDW's problem is like the big Battleship problem, namely it takes a long time for it to make a turn. Their recent expansion mostly occurred because they were reacting to the success of Hogsmeade, and then Diagon. If those didn't happen, it's probable that only a couple of new rides would have been added this past decade. After Guardians and Tron open, they don't have a whole lot ready to go, albeit a parade or show. And Disney, as we all know, is slow to build. Pandora/Batuu/etc. were slow builds. So there's certainly going to be a time lag on major new attractions once this recent phase ends. And that's when Disney will be most vulnerable....And, that just happens to be when Epic will open.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

WDW's problem is like the big Battleship problem, namely it takes a long time for it to make a turn. Their recent expansion mostly occurred because they were reacting to the success of Hogsmeade, and then Diagon. If those didn't happen, it's probable that only a couple of new rides would have been added this past decade. After Guardians and Tron open, they don't have a whole lot ready to go, albeit a parade or show. And Disney, as we all know, is slow to build. Pandora/Batuu/etc. were slow builds. So there's certainly going to be a time lag on major new attractions once this recent phase ends. And that's when Disney will be most vulnerable....And, that just happens to be when Epic will open.

I think a trend I can see is either,

the 2 vacations a family typically spent going to just Disney now does a single Disney trip and a Universal trip.

Or,

People split their 7 day vacation between the 2 resorts with 4 days at one and 3 at the other. Rather than grabbing a park to park ticket to check out Diagon, you’d get multiple days of business.

 

[salismetho]

I think a trend I can see is either,

the 2 vacations a family typically spent going to just Disney now does a single Disney trip and a Universal trip.

Or,

People split their 7 day vacation between the 2 resorts with 4 days at one and 3 at the other. Rather than grabbing a park to park ticket to check out Diagon, you’d get multiple days of business.

I could imagine there will definitely be a greater number of people skipping Disney altogether. Say you're doing a 3-4 day trip, but you're family really likes Potter, you are far more likely to now do all those days at Universal rather than split it 50/50. But honestly, I think Disney is gonna benefit from this, at least at the start. People traveling to see Epic Universe will mean more people in the area. A good chunk of those people will think "Hey Disney is here too, why not go there for a day or two as well?" We'll have to see.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I could imagine there will definitely be a greater number of people skipping Disney altogether. Say you're doing a 3-4 day trip, but you're family really likes Potter, you are far more likely to now do all those days at Universal rather than split it 50/50. But honestly, I think Disney is gonna benefit from this, at least at the start. People traveling to see Epic Universe will mean more people in the area. A good chunk of those people will think "Hey Disney is here too, why not go there for a day or two as well?" We'll have to see.

Ultimately it will likely force Disney to respond, which is the best of both worlds for us consumers.

Golden age of theme park competition?

 

[tielo]

Believe me I think Disney is watching what’s going on the down the street. Whether they respond or not I’m pretty sure depends if they feel “threatened” enough. As a theme park fan I would love for them to continue to invest into WDW.

Problem is they spent billions on new attractions and themed areas and it didn't accumulate into the growth they expected. It didn't generate new visitors either (I think that has to do with the lack of quality). So why continue this trend if it doesn't pay off? The only thing to do is to milk the cow even more.

 

[salismetho]

Ultimately it will likely force Disney to respond, which is the best of both worlds for us consumers.

Golden age of theme park competition?

Fingers crossed but I'm not holding my breath. Universal has a lot more ground to cover than Disney does to lose. Disney seems content with mostly not responding to the competition currently. But hopefully that will change. The question is also if that is through just expansion or efforts towards guest experience + cost as well

 

[Disneyhead]

Universal builds a new park.

Disney's response: "Dreamfinder Popcorn Bucket".

 

[OLSinFLA]

It's not just attendance that Disney worries about. It's guest spending. Disney has watched enviously at the amount of money Harry Potter merchandise alone people buy. And when people buy a lot of stuff at Universal... they buy less at Disney. (And yes, Disney merchandise growth has slowed down quite a bit). So Disney makes up for it by charging for LL, raising food prices etc under guest spending "growth"

 

[Scott W.]

It's not just attendance that Disney worries about. It's guest spending. Disney has watched enviously at the amount of money Harry Potter merchandise alone people buy. And when people buy a lot of stuff at Universal... they buy less at Disney. (And yes, Disney merchandise growth has slowed down quite a bit). So Disney makes up for it by charging for LL, raising food prices etc under guest spending "growth"

I just wonder where Disney goes from here. It seems like every avenue of micro transactions have been run. I imagine that Disney+ gives them a huge advantage of knowing what merchandise to do.

Peacock probably doesn't have that those kind of analytics and are probably irrelevant to the parks anyway.

Nintendo, Monsters and Potter will sell a ton of merchandise. I'm not so sure about HTTYD but I think the IP is kind of generic that even somebody who knows nothing about it, will be able to enjoy it. It's vikings and dragons, that's all you need to know/

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I just wonder where Disney goes from here. It seems like every avenue of micro transactions have been run. I imagine that Disney+ gives them a huge advantage of knowing what merchandise to do.

Peacock probably doesn't have that those kind of analytics and are probably irrelevant to the parks anyway.

Nintendo, Monsters and Potter will sell a ton of merchandise. I'm not so sure about HTTYD but I think the IP is kind of generic that even somebody who knows nothing about it, will be able to enjoy it. It's vikings and dragons, that's all you need to know/

Animal Kingdom, to my knowledge, is seemingly their best bet at expansion in the 2020s. If they can create 2 fantastic E tickets they’ll be fine, but they need to be relatively Rise level to compete with a new park and continued development at USF, right? Or am I aiming far too high...

 

[OrlLover]

Animal Kingdom, to my knowledge, is seemingly their best bet at expansion in the 2020s. If they can create 2 fantastic E tickets they’ll be fine, but they need to be relatively Rise level to compete with a new park and continued development at USF, right? Or am I aiming far too high...

If I was Disney I would announce full on master plan for the WDW Resort. Promising billions of dollars in investment over the next 15-20 years.

Each park gets new attractions with a timeline of AK getting some love first. It would be like our version of Disneyland forward. Now I know that’s extremely unrealistic but a guy can dream.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

If I was Disney I would announce full on master plan for the WDW Resort. Promising billions of dollars in investment over the next 15-20 years.

Each park gets new attractions with a timeline of AK getting some love first. It would be like our version of Disneyland forward. Now I know that’s extremely unrealistic but a guy can dream.

Well they may announce it, and cancel it without telling you!

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

I imagine that Disney+ gives them a huge advantage of knowing what merchandise to do.

You would think so, but there's still barely any representation from D+ hits except in California. I'm sure there's Mando or Encanto merchandise at the parks, but there's no effort to promote those franchises within WDW. They moved quickly to put Frozen everywhere following it's success, but that's the outlier.

 

[HandsomePete]

"Disney's secretly doing better than 2017, 2018, and 2019 and just not telling anyone. Also capacity is the same not due to staffing." Sure thing, and you're saying I'm the not living in reality?

Hotel rates being at all-time highs is an absolute fact. Sorry you aren't sourced well enough to know that I guess :shrug: Attendance obviously not, occupancy obviously not, but I didn't say either of those, did I? I would have thought Universal's are as well, but if not... oooof. (Edit: once I posted that, realized it’s not on them - if they’re not at all-time highs, Universal should be all over Loews).

And why would you open a hotel that you don't need? Do you not understand market segmentation and demand? Yeah, staffing is hard for everyone in Orlando, but just because you could fill a hotel with housekeepers doesn't mean you need to, nor does not opening a hotel definitely mean you can't find housekeepers.

And no, I never said you're not living in reality. You're just don't get some things or aren't sourced well enough, nothing wrong with that.

But it does show there's a limit to what you can raise and Eisner over corrected. Plus, and I think what Tommy is getting at, what else happened between 1990 and 1994.

A recession. Google "it's the economy, stupid." Unless you're trying to say USO was so awesome that it killed Disneyland even more than Disney World.