*sigh*
You really think all 60 million users around the world are going to Universal every year? Every five years? Ten years? You think the 1.5 million “hardcores” in the US are able to afford an annual trip to Universal? Universal Orlando has an annual attendance of 10 million (which aren’t unique visitors, because it’s basically every ticket swipe, but it’s the number we have). That number is only 3% of the US population (the unique number is closer to 1%). But let’s say 5% of the US hardcore number attends. That’s only 75,000 people. In a year. The global number would be even smaller. Even if 50% of the hardcores in America went every year, it would barely put the park in the top 25 attended parks in the world. And you think that’s worth Universal’s ROI? You really think Comcast wants that in their portfolio? The numbers are far less impressive when you look at the bigger picture.
The vast majority of people don’t want to LARP. Most people don’t want to attend a park dedicated to a single IP. Theme parks are designed to cast the widest net possible. They design stuff for casuals, but intended to keep hardcores happy. The casuals are the important factor. Not the fraction of a fraction.
I understand how you are interpreting the data... But I'm not certain that's how it would work out or how you would properly forecast the numbers.
Also, let's cut out the hyperbole, If I did in fact say I want them to build a whole park dedicated to Pokemon, I've attempted to clarify several times now. Let me try again:
I think Pokemon has the substance to carry a substantial portion of a universal park and be a bigger anchor with more dedicated land than Potter. I base this on the strength of it's earning power over the past 24 years based on it's merch and video game sales compared to potter. I believe emulating the games as a part of the attraction, the land, like Potter with the wands, or SNW with the app and the bands would make it a more powerful edition, not less. I wholeheartedly believe the property could support more than a billion dollars in development cost, up to 2.5bn, and it would make sense to spend that amount with the proper content strategy built into the land.
I believe the content strategy, the programming of the land should directly emulate the games and the ride attractions should support the interactive activities, but be standalone.
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1% of the total global number of monthly players and their families attending once annually might not be far off from the actual global annual draw of such a land. That's saying 1% of 60 million people (the monthly player base) can afford one annual trip, which for speculative purposes I think is a fair argument, and certainly many more would be able to afford a once in a lifetime. This is only based on the monthly draw of one game underneath the Pokemon IP, which is a testament to it's strength.
That amount of draw alone, based on a single game and nothing more would be quite remarkable, and if the land were standalone, the attendance based on that number alone would put it in the top 25 most visited parks annually, right underneath Universal Hollywood. But arguably, the draw would be more.
Creating an activity you can come back again and again and always get something new out of is something that has been being pursued more heavily in the industry in recent years. Repeat engagement is an important factor in designing any kind of land.
I think based on the relative strength of the IP in question, based on it's total revenue compared to other Ip's who's expansions have been wildly popular (potter, star wars) and it's total monthly users of the game, emulating the game in a park expansion, throwing the kitchen sink at it is not out of the question, and should be encouraged.
Again, for reference, Pokemon is a property only a year older than Potter, but has doubled it's earnings in Video games and merch sales alone. It is the highest grossing IP of all time, period. It has a substantial universe and a lore that would lend it well to becoming the next "mega land" (i.e Potter, SWGE, SNW), and perhaps the property used to push themed entertainment to the next level of immersion.