Spider-Man is at the center of a Spider-Verse so creating one WITHOUT him is going to be tough. If Venom proves not to hit whatever Sony's goals are, I won't put it past them to pull Spidey in. No Spider-Man film of the 6 to be made since the Tobey Maguire trilogy have made under $700M Worldwide. The character sells around the world and I would assume they would want to finish out Holland's trilogy.
I'm not saying this is going to happen of course, but they made it a short 5 film deal with the MCU (Civil War, Homecoming, IW, Avengers 4, and Far From Home) for a reason. Sony was having trouble with the character at the time and putting him into the MCU made it easy for Sony and it bought them three years essentially to figure things out. If they find out that they need him in-house again, they will have no hesitation in yanking him back.