Effects of Coronavirus (COVID-19) On Entertainment & Tourism Industry

[RevFreako]

That seems to be my fault I guess. Although my initial reasoning for posting here was because of the Concerts and Sports connection... wasn't expecting the conversation to go the direction it did.

And just to combat everyone worried about the Fall 2021 thing I mentioned in my post, you guys didn't read far enough. They said social distancing measures should remain in place to an extent as we open up. That's what we've been expecting. I think there's a real debate to be had about whether Concerts or sporting events with packed arenas should happen until there's a vaccine.

I don't think there should be a debate. Until there's at least a vaccine, concert/sports/theme parks should not be happening. They will, because most people are ignorant rubes, but they shouldn't.

 

[Nick]

I don't think there should be a debate. Until there's at least a vaccine, concert/sports/theme parks should not be happening. They will, because most people are ignorant rubes, but they shouldn't.

I agree, but you know there's going to be a strong push to get everything going from all industries (Music/Sports/Hospitality/etc). There are lots of gig workers and $15/hour and under workers that are going to be out of jobs for awhile if things do have to stay closed for that long in those industries, so I hope things can get open as soon as is responsible. However, even once we get back to a semi-normal life, that doesn't mean we're all good to pack 60,000+ at Raymond James Stadium to go see Tom Brady as a Buccaneer this fall.

It's a very complicated and nuanced issue that needs to be handled with great care.

 

[Grabnar]

The problem I'm seeing is that nothing indicates we will actually be getting enough testing and PPE anytime soon (meaning not soon enough for re-opening by summer). We still need massive, massive increases in (both types of) testing, and all the reports I've seen still talk about only having enough for a few percent of the population by summer, not enough for the widespread testing we would need to reopen.

Hence why I'm leaning doomer.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Just speaking from an entertainment perspective to limit bleedover between the threads (sorry Brian et al, I'm really trying but this is all so interconnected that it's hard if not impossible to stay entirely on subject) this is really a worst case scenario. Even if the virus vanished tomorrow there is going to be a lot of hesitation to start attending movie theaters, entertainment, clubs, restaurants, hospitality, and yes, theme parks, for a long, long time.

In the real world, if we re-open too soon all it's going to do is re-ignite community spread, people's anxiety skyrockets, and we might have to close essential services if enough workers are infected. As a plus, if people survive this pushes us closer to herd immunity, I guess.

If we don't reopen we still have an immunologically naive population and a failing/failed economy. This might be manageable with better leaders, but worldwide we are desperately lacking in that department.

We are past contact tracing and isolation at this point, there's just too many cases. That exists strictly to delay your spread until you are ready to manage it medically. We are universally past a point where you can sufficiently contact trace to eliminate this, if that point ever even existed. At this point cancelling major events, keeping social distancing in place, and encouraging PPE whenever you leave the house is really the only thing that'll help. Bottom line, we need to increase PPE production and distribution.

The entertainment industry as we know it will not survive this without substantial government intervention. Universal is in a significantly better position than Disney, Seaworld, Six Flags or the movie theater chains, but they're not immune. I'd predict that a few of the old guard will fold or consolidate before this is over; likely Sea World, Six Flags, and Cedar Fair in theme parks, as well as damn near every last theater; live, movie, or otherwise. I don't think we'll see Disney get acquired, but this is going to be the closest that they'll come since the 80s.

I hope that I'm wrong but I have a feeling that this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. If that doesn't happen you guys can call me doomer all you want, but I have a gut feeling we're on a cliff looking a very long way down.

 

[youhow2]

Hence why I'm leaning doomer.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Just speaking from an entertainment perspective to limit bleedover between the threads (sorry Brian et al, I'm really trying but this is all so interconnected that it's hard if not impossible to stay entirely on subject) this is really a worst case scenario. Even if the virus vanished tomorrow there is going to be a lot of hesitation to start attending movie theaters, entertainment, clubs, restaurants, hospitality, and yes, theme parks, for a long, long time.

In the real world, if we re-open too soon all it's going to do is re-ignite community spread, people's anxiety skyrockets, and we might have to close essential services if enough workers are infected. As a plus, if people survive this pushes us closer to herd immunity, I guess.

If we don't reopen we still have an immunologically naive population and a failing/failed economy. This might be manageable with better leaders, but worldwide we are desperately lacking in that department.

We are past contact tracing and isolation at this point, there's just too many cases. That exists strictly to delay your spread until you are ready to manage it medically. We are universally past a point where you can sufficiently contact trace to eliminate this, if that point ever even existed. At this point cancelling major events, keeping social distancing in place, and encouraging PPE whenever you leave the house is really the only thing that'll help. Bottom line, we need to increase PPE production and distribution.

The entertainment industry as we know it will not survive this without substantial government intervention. Universal is in a significantly better position than Disney, Seaworld, Six Flags or the movie theater chains, but they're not immune. I'd predict that a few of the old guard will fold or consolidate before this is over; likely Sea World, Six Flags, and Cedar Fair in theme parks, as well as damn near every last theater; live, movie, or otherwise. I don't think we'll see Disney get acquired, but this is going to be the closest that they'll come since the 80s.

I hope that I'm wrong but I have a feeling that this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. If that doesn't happen you guys can call me doomer all you want, but I have a gut feeling we're on a cliff looking a very long way down.

I work in Live entertainment, Live events. Last event I worked was the 9th of March, then my state was shut down about 2 weeks after that. It seems like it's been forever, but we've only been on mass lockdown a few weeks guys... We haven't even begun to feel it yet. China was "closed" for what, 3 months?

We're essentially on month 1 as a country, with much less restriction than them.

Anyways, It's funny to me that there's been talk of the parks reopening stateside as early as June, when using China as a model, Their parks are still shut down. Their theaters and entertainment venues are still shut down. If you look at the traffic data, people are going to work, but other than that stay pretty much holed up in their homes. Whole industries will continue to suffer.

I don't expect to go back to work until there is a viable vaccine, with deployment on 60% + of the population. We don't even have enough PPE and test yet.

 

[Andysol]

No one brought politics into this, so there's no reason for you to.

This must be your first interaction with him...

We are past contact tracing and isolation at this point, there's just too many cases.

There are still plenty of places where this is used and helpful on local levels. Many places are past it but many others are not.

 

[Happytycho]

Hence why I'm leaning doomer.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Just speaking from an entertainment perspective to limit bleedover between the threads (sorry Brian et al, I'm really trying but this is all so interconnected that it's hard if not impossible to stay entirely on subject) this is really a worst case scenario. Even if the virus vanished tomorrow there is going to be a lot of hesitation to start attending movie theaters, entertainment, clubs, restaurants, hospitality, and yes, theme parks, for a long, long time.

In the real world, if we re-open too soon all it's going to do is re-ignite community spread, people's anxiety skyrockets, and we might have to close essential services if enough workers are infected. As a plus, if people survive this pushes us closer to herd immunity, I guess.

If we don't reopen we still have an immunologically naive population and a failing/failed economy. This might be manageable with better leaders, but worldwide we are desperately lacking in that department.

We are past contact tracing and isolation at this point, there's just too many cases. That exists strictly to delay your spread until you are ready to manage it medically. We are universally past a point where you can sufficiently contact trace to eliminate this, if that point ever even existed. At this point cancelling major events, keeping social distancing in place, and encouraging PPE whenever you leave the house is really the only thing that'll help. Bottom line, we need to increase PPE production and distribution.

The entertainment industry as we know it will not survive this without substantial government intervention. Universal is in a significantly better position than Disney, Seaworld, Six Flags or the movie theater chains, but they're not immune. I'd predict that a few of the old guard will fold or consolidate before this is over; likely Sea World, Six Flags, and Cedar Fair in theme parks, as well as damn near every last theater; live, movie, or otherwise. I don't think we'll see Disney get acquired, but this is going to be the closest that they'll come since the 80s.

I hope that I'm wrong but I have a feeling that this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. If that doesn't happen you guys can call me doomer all you want, but I have a gut feeling we're on a cliff looking a very long way down.

This is entirely doomer, but I fear we may be quickly heading towards a situation where state governors basically have to make a decision between prolonged economic shutdowns or a significant loss of life from re-opening. Or if the process gets screwed up, both.

Either way, I can't imagine that re-opening large scale entertainment venues like theme parks is going to be very high on many policymakers priority lists.

 

[Nick]

Either way, I can't imagine that re-opening large scale entertainment venues like theme parks is going to be very high on many policymakers priority lists.

I think it absolutely will be for Gov. DeSantis in Florida. Remember, Florida doesn't have a state income tax, but a tourism tax. If there's no tourism, then there's no tax dollars coming in.

Gov. Newsom seems to be taking more of my preferred approach in California so those parks are likely low priority.

 

[Magic-Man]

Welp. I hate this new decade. Can we go back to 2010?

 

[Clive]

I think it absolutely will be for Gov. DeSantis in Florida. Remember, Florida doesn't have a state income tax, but a tourism tax. If there's no tourism, then there's no tax dollars coming in.

Gov. Newsom seems to be taking more of my preferred approach in California so those parks are likely low priority.

Bear in mind Newsom had to clumsily justify why Disneyland and theaters were exempt from his initial orders.

 

[Grabnar]

There are still plenty of places where this is used and helpful on local levels. Many places are past it but many others are not.

Given that we had minimum 6-8 weeks of undetected spread in Washington and NYC (and I'd guess FL too) starting in January, I'd be willing to bet more than a few paychecks that we've had cryptic transmission in most communities in the US. The lockdown has helped slow down spread in the rural communities that may have had 1-2 imported cases at most potentially bringing them back down to a level where tracing is worthwhile, but given that the US is essentially the size of the Schengen zone and lacking border checkpoints or travel restrictions of any type your contact tracing is going to be difficult at best.

This is entirely doomer, but I fear we may be quickly heading towards a situation where state governors basically have to make a decision between prolonged economic shutdowns or a significant loss of life from re-opening. Or if the process gets screwed up, both.

That was actually the more optimistic post I wrote, I re-wrote my entirely doomer post about halfway through to keep it more limited to the entertainment industry. I'm personally worried that we're going to try and re-open too soon and end up causing more problems. Opening too soon will almost certainly cause a market collapse when spread starts and we have to lockdown again.

Either way I think @youhow2 is right for hospitality, travel, and entertainment, as unfortunate as it is:

I don't expect to go back to work until there is a viable vaccine, with deployment on 60% + of the population. We don't even have enough PPE and test yet.

 

[Scott W.]

 

[darkridelover]

Question: What do you think a character meet and greet looks like when parks start opening up?

I imagine the characters will be there to interact with but they'll be behind a line you can't cross. I also don't think autograph books and pens will be allowed for a while.

 

[Scott W.]

Question: What do you think a character meet and greet looks like when parks start opening up?

I imagine the characters will be there to interact with but they'll be behind a line you can't cross. I also don't think autograph books and pens will be allowed for a while.

I think it depends on the character. Mickey Mouse in a full costume, could protect the cast member and allow a face mask. A character like Cinderella would be fully exposed and I don’t think we’ll see them outside of parades for a while.

 

[HandsomePete]

Since I know this came up awhile back when T-Rex and Rainforest went down:

Billionaire Tilman Fertitta claims he laid off 45,000 workers quickly as a ‘favor’

The guy is scum and calling it a“favor” is scummy, but I guess he isn’t wrong about getting their unemployment filings in near the beginning.

 

[RedRightDan]

Since I know this came up awhile back when T-Rex and Rainforest went down:

Billionaire Tilman Fertitta claims he laid off 45,000 workers quickly as a ‘favor’

The guy is scum and calling it a“favor” is scummy, but I guess he isn’t wrong about getting their unemployment filings in near the beginning.

He also references the unemployment payments "on top of the severance" that he gave them. I don't recall seeing anything about that in the original article. I'm guessing that's only for full salaries employees (managers, DMs, etc) rather than the bulk of his employees, which are the boots on the ground wait staff.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

While my intent here is not to wish or speculate on people’s jobs, we’re naturally discussing theme parks so I do have this thought:

Is there a possibility, either both at Disney or Universal but particularly Universal, is there a chance we just flat out see some attractions/shows close for good to save costs? It’s one of the only theories I can think of right now. While you’d want many things to be open to spread crowds in a time like this I’m more thinking straight up $$$ perspective. Like, I can’t imagine Barney, Animal Actors, Fear Factor, or Shrek 4-D cost a great amount to run but I wonder if some of these closures may be expedited due to this? Could be a way for them to save on a future project or two.

Or my math is nowhere near as correct as I hope it is. Obviously this is not what I want for the parks but figured it was a point of discussion.

 

[JungleSkip]

While my intent here is not to wish or speculate on people’s jobs, we’re naturally discussing theme parks so I do have this thought:

Is there a possibility, either both at Disney or Universal but particularly Universal, is there a chance we just flat out see some attractions/shows close for good to save costs? It’s one of the only theories I can think of right now. While you’d want many things to be open to spread crowds in a time like this I’m more thinking straight up $$$ perspective. Like, I can’t imagine Barney, Animal Actors, Fear Factor, or Shrek 4-D cost a great amount to run but I wonder if some of these closures may be expedited due to this? Could be a way for them to save on a future project or two.

Or my math is nowhere near as correct as I hope it is. Obviously this is not what I want for the parks but figured it was a point of discussion.

I see showtimes lessening, and Disney not doing nightly fireworks, especially.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I see showtimes lessening, and Disney not doing nightly fireworks, especially.

Ya, could be more of a weekend thing or once a week thing. And shows have pretty much just 1 cast so they run when they’re available and do 2 shows a day or just 1 maybe who knows.

 

[JungleSkip]

FYI, Disney has moved SOUL from June to November and Raya and the Dragon to March.

 

[Magic Feather]

*If* Soul gets moved, I see it taking over for Raya in the November slot, and then Raya fills in the March ‘21 slot that stuff like Zootopia or Onward Occupied.

What did I say?