Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[belloq87]

I still (perhaps foolishly...) maintain that some semblance of a summer movie season should be possible (especially if the J&J vaccine works and is approved within the next month), but I do think many of the offerings pre-June probably have to be dumped to streaming/VOD, as the back half of the year is already ridiculously crowded.

What this means for NO TIME TO DIE, the film that was my most anticipated for 2020 and remains for 2021, concerns me, though. I'd hate to have to watch that at home, but bumping it back to November/December (Bond's traditional slot since GOLDENEYE) puts it directly up against MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE, its most formidable competition in the marketplace.

 

[Nick]

I still (perhaps foolishly...) maintain that some semblance of a summer movie season should be possible (especially if the J&J vaccine works and is approved within the next month), but I do think many of the offerings pre-June probably have to be dumped to streaming/VOD, as the back half of the year is already ridiculously crowded.

What this means for NO TIME TO DIE, the film that was my most anticipated for 2020 and remains for 2021, concerns me, though. I'd hate to have to watch that at home, but bumping it back to November/December (Bond's traditional slot since GOLDENEYE) puts it directly up against MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE, its most formidable competition in the marketplace.

That's the issue and why I think these films will have to go to streaming or PVOD. There's too many movies coming out this year so if you push back, you're just going to run into another movie.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I still think studios are gonna pull back on more films than not this summer to see if crowds return and not risk too much, save some titles to potentially debut on a service rather than be the test rat if that makes sense.

Black Widow being a premiere exclusive or whatever makes sense, because it seems the MCU will simply need it to work with all their other projects, so it literally NEEDS to be out this summer lol.

 

[Nick]

I still think studios are gonna pull back on more films than not this summer to see if crowds return and not risk too much, save some titles to potentially debut on a service rather than be the test rat if that makes sense.

Black Widow being a premiere exclusive or whatever makes sense, because it seems the MCU will simply need it to work with all their other projects, so it literally NEEDS to be out this summer lol.

Black Widow simply needs to come out. There's 4 MCU movies and something like 5-6 shows this year and Florence Pugh's Yelena Belova is actually debuting out of order in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier instead of Black Widow.

 

[belloq87]

I still think studios are gonna pull back on more films than not this summer to see if crowds return and not risk too much

But at the same time, crowds will definitely not return if there aren't major draws for them to go and see.

Once supply of vaccine is such that people who want one can get one (which, per Fauci, could be in the April - May timeframe, but let's just call it June), one of the studios is going to need to make another TENET decision, only this time with a film that is closer to a (pre-COVID) certain hit. They can't wait for demand to organically restore itself, they have to generate the demand with big films.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

But at the same time, crowds will definitely not return if there aren't major draws for them to go and see.

Once supply of vaccine is such that people who want one can get one (which, per Fauci, could be in the April - May timeframe, but let's just call it June), one of the studios is going to need to make another TENET decision, only this time with a film that is closer to a (pre-COVID) certain hit. They can't wait for demand to organically restore itself, they have to generate the demand with big films.

Agreed, I guess I took the original comment as “begin to return if the summer season” where I feel like you said, a few Tenet’s, and that’s probably it. I know people who don’t love theatres or didn’t go frequently who will definitely return if and when it’s safe so testing the waters is good but I definitely don’t see many new films opening, I doubt any the same weekend also. At least on the higher up level.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Black Widow simply needs to come out. There's 4 MCU movies and something like 5-6 shows this year and Florence Pugh's Yelena Belova is actually debuting out of order in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier instead of Black Widow.

Florence Pugh's character is actually in Hawkeye, but yeah, another Widow delay would put it dangerously close to messing up the MCU release timeline.

 

[belloq87]

Just as an exercise, here's Disney's summer release slate:

- BLACK WIDOW (May 7th)
- CRUELLA (May 28th)
- LUCA (June 18th)
- SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS (July 9th)
- JUNGLE CRUISE (July 30th)

Here's what I'd do, assuming contractual obligations wouldn't prevent it:

CRUELLA (May 7th... on Disney+)
BLACK WIDOW (June 18th)
LUCA (July 9th)
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS (July 30th)
JUNGLE CRUISE (sometime in mid August on Disney+)

I think those theatrical dates seem reasonably plausible, you're not having to futz around with moving fall dates, and you clear the board a bit.

 

[Nick]

Florence Pugh's character is actually in Hawkeye, but yeah, another Widow delay would put it dangerously close to messing up the MCU release timeline.

It's still just a rumor and they tried to keep it a secret after the delays, but if Grace is to be believed (and while I don't like her, she has good sources), Pugh is in FatWS. BTW, she confirmed Pugh in Hawkeye before we actually knew.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Morbius has been officially delayed to October 8: ‘Morbius’ With Jared Leto Delays Release Date

Interestingly enough, Sony hasn't said anything regarding Cinderella or Peter Rabbit (yet).

 

[rageofthegods]

Morbius has been officially delayed to October 8: ‘Morbius’ With Jared Leto Delays Release Date

Interestingly enough, Sony hasn't said anything regarding Cinderella or Peter Rabbit (yet).

I'm guessing they're waiting to see how the schedule shakes out (same with Disney with King's Man). It's going to be a mess for a few months as studios try to wrangle release dates.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

she has good sources

O:?

 

[Nick]

O:?

She's been right on too many big things recently for me to say otherwise right now.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Morbius has been officially delayed to October 8: ‘Morbius’ With Jared Leto Delays Release Date

Interestingly enough, Sony hasn't said anything regarding Cinderella or Peter Rabbit (yet).

It's going to be interesting to see what happens to Spider-Man 3 now. There are rumors that Morbius and Venom will be appearing in that film as well and we know that Morbius is supposed to take place before SM3 (and possibly lead directly in to Venom 2). If that's the case, Sony may force Disney's hand in pushing SM3 back to 2022 so that the spin-offs are still released first, which might impact Doctor Strange 2 and cause that to delay again.

 

[Nick]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens to Spider-Man 3 now. There are rumors that Morbius and Venom will be appearing in that film as well and we know that Morbius is supposed to take place before SM3 (and possibly lead directly in to Venom 2). If that's the case, Sony may force Disney's hand in pushing SM3 back to 2022 so that the spin-offs are still released first, which might impact Doctor Strange 2 and cause that to delay again.

Or Sony may be able to use it as leverage with Disney going forward.

 

[belloq87]

I'd think Sony would absolutely want to prioritize getting SPIDEY 3 out for Christmas at almost all costs.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Spider-Man 3 by Christmas, should be the guarantee. I genuinely think either one way (theatrical) or another (a potential deal with TWDC on Spider-Man films on Disney+, to where Sony profits off of it) is a likely possibility.

 

[Nick]

Spider-Man 3 by Christmas, should be the guarantee. I genuinely think either one way (theatrical) or another (a potential deal with TWDC on Spider-Man films on Disney+, to where Sony profits off of it) is a likely possibility.

I could see a situation where Disney pays Sony like $200M to buy the distribution rights to SM3 and then Disney does a release strategy on Disney+/PVOD/Theatrical.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

I could see a situation where Disney pays Sony like $200M to buy the distribution rights to SM3 and then Disney does a release strategy on Disney+/PVOD/Theatrical.

I genuinely think, there is legitimate money on the table to where Disney may try to make a deal on SM3.

It's a rare case to where that specific character, prints the money. And it's the rare case to where if Disney is going to make a deal for anyone this year, it's with Sony on that.

 

[belloq87]

If Sony gives up Spider-Man, then they might as well close down the studio. I can't imagine Disney meeting the price Sony would ask, especially when the current deal seems agreeable to all parties (otherwise they wouldn't have extended).

And I think there's every reason to believe SPIDEY 3 will open for the holidays as planned, as a Sony-distributed theatrical release.