Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[belloq87]

I think NO WAY HOME's incredible run so far indicates that there are certainly enough people willing (theoretically) to go to the theaters to warrant keeping SCREAM where it is. As for adding a PVOD/Paramount+ component, if they were leaning that way, I think they'd have done it by now, but I guess we'll see.

I really hope we don't see movies further into the winter/spring getting pushed again.

 

[Nick]

I think NO WAY HOME's incredible run so far indicates that there are certainly enough people willing (theoretically) to go to the theaters to warrant keeping SCREAM where it is. As for adding a PVOD/Paramount+ component, if they were leaning that way, I think they'd have done it by now, but I guess we'll see.

I really hope we don't see movies further into the winter/spring getting pushed again.

NWH is bringing in crowds. Literally every other movie that has opened this in November/December would suggest otherwise.

 

[belloq87]

I'm not saying I think SCREAM will be a hit (I've been modestly skeptical about its monetary prospects since it was announced before the pandemic), but I am saying that if you give audiences a compelling reason to go to the movies, they will go. Most of those other movies you're talking about didn't provide a compelling-enough reason and/or had other factors in play.

 

[Nick]

I'm not saying I think SCREAM will be a hit (I'm been modestly skeptical about its monetary prospects since it was announced before the pandemic), but I am saying that if you give audiences a compelling reason to go to the movies, they will go. Most of those other movies you're talking about didn't provide a compelling-enough reason and/or had other factors in play.

I don't think Scream provides a lot of compelling reasons to go to a theater, either. It's an extremely niche movie that probably had a potential of $20M when NWH first opened. Now that theaters are closing and Omicron is really spreading rapidly, I see it opening no higher than around $12.5M.

 

[belloq87]

I don't think Scream provides a lot of compelling reasons to go to a theater, either. It's an extremely niche movie that probably had a potential of $20M when NWH first opened. Now that theaters are closing and Omicron is really spreading rapidly, I see it opening no higher than around $12.5M.

As I said, we'll see.

They're getting my $10, at the very least!

 

[quinnmac000]

You can't compare No Way Home to any other movie.....

Spiderman has been a beloved IP longer than the MCU has been in existence and with it being an open secret that the former spidermans were going to be in this, people would brave any kind of storm to see it. It's all 4 quadrant meaning accessible to almost anyone at any age.

Scream is a R rated horror film....its not going to pull in that level of success.

 

[Nick]

You can't compare No Way Home to any other movie.....

Spiderman has been a beloved IP longer than the MCU has been in existence and with it being an open secret that the former spidermans were going to be in this, people would brave any kind of storm to see it. It's all 4 quadrant meaning accessible to almost anyone at any age.

Scream is a R rated horror film....its not going to pull in that level of success.

Yeah, what No Way Home shows is that people are certainly willing to go and pay to watch a movie in a theater still in huge numbers, but it has to have an extreme amount of hype surrounding it. For the most part, people don't care to go to a theater anymore for non-blockbuster films and are willing to wait 45 days or however long for the movie to hit streaming.

I think the only movies that will almost for sure hit $1B this year are Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, and Avatar 2 (as long as it gets a release in China it'll have no problem hitting $1B). Thor 4 and Black Panther 2 are possibilities, but a $1B Thor movie would be the highest grossing Thor movie by a wide margin and BP2 has a lot of issues currently to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if The Marvels moves up and BP2 moves back to February 2023.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

I'm currently doing an ads analytics job right now. Lots of people said Nightnare Alley and West Side Story weren't advertised when I constantly saw them come up in ad breakdowns. Comparatively, I've seen a Scream ad come up exactly two times.

Couple that with Omicron and no streaming presence, this might be bad but it's Scream and there's nothing high profile till February.

 

[Nick]

I'm currently doing an ads analytics job right now. Lots of people said Nightnare Alley and West Side Story weren't advertised when I constantly saw them come up in ad breakdowns. Comparatively, I've seen a Scream ad come up exactly two times.

Couple that with Omicron and no streaming presence, this might be bad but it's Scream and there's nothing high profile till February.

Disney has been bad about advertising pretty much every Fox movie except for Free Guy and i'd actually make a case for West Side Story. I saw a lot of advertising for it in the lead up to its release. Nightmare Alley though might as well have got nothing. And like you, i've seen virtually no Scream advertising. If I didn't follow movies and trends, i'd have no idea it was coming out in a few weeks.

 

[quinnmac000]

I'm currently doing an ads analytics job right now. Lots of people said Nightnare Alley and West Side Story weren't advertised when I constantly saw them come up in ad breakdowns. Comparatively, I've seen a Scream ad come up exactly two times.

Couple that with Omicron and no streaming presence, this might be bad but it's Scream and there's nothing high profile till February.

In their defense, if it wasn't for reddit/reading the trades daily, I wouldn't know what films were coming out especially those two, both remakes of older films. The saturation of competing content makes it very easy for something to get overshadowed/forgotten. Movies used to be competing just against other movies, now they are competing against all forms of visual media.

 

[TheGentTrent]

Scream will in all likely stay where it’s at. I’m thinking we’ll see Uncharted get pushed a couple of months to Spring-time given that Sony wants this to be their next Jumanji.

 

[rageofthegods]

Scream's presales and awareness are really, REALLY good fwiw. Predictions for MLK weekend just went up and they go as high as 40m.

I think it'll be a hit for Paramount, though that depends on just how bad Omicron gets in the coming week.

 

[Nick]

Scream's presales and awareness are really, REALLY good fwiw. Predictions for MLK weekend just went up and they go as high as 40m.

I think it'll be a hit for Paramount, though that depends on just how bad Omicron gets in the coming week.

The entire box office slate should be producing way more than $40M total on a holiday weekend. Even in January.

 

[belloq87]

I believe the current tracking for SCREAM alone is up to $40 million for the weekend.

But tracking's been wrong plenty of times.

 

[Nick]

I believe the current tracking for SCREAM alone is up to $40 million for the weekend.

But tracking's been wrong plenty of times.

If Scream opens at $40M (especially because it would be the highest opening in the history of the Scream franchise with only Scream 2 & 3 coming anywhere close), i'll be extremely impressed, but I wouldn't count on it. Remember when The Eternals broke the pre-sale record, people were projecting huge debut figures, and then only took in $71.3M opening weekend after the mixed/negative reviews came out?

My point is, there's a lot of variables involved with box office tracking and Omicron is a huge one. Spider-Man is making the Box Office *feel* normal when really people would've been in theaters seeing that thing if asteroids were in the forecast. The rest of the box office is telling a different story and yes, maybe some poor marketing isn't helping, but part of that is because most of the movies that these studios are releasing are likely going to be a money loser. They can minimize their loss by running a slim marketing campaign.

 

[Nick]

Affleck is 100% on point here for where the future of theatrical is headed:

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Affleck is 100% on point here for where the future of theatrical is headed:

For what it’s worth the trend was already going this was pre Covid, and with new variants shutting some things down, if that trend continues then he’s right. Everything will either be the next hot Mini series on HBO or it’s a Marvel film. Turning Red, an original Pixar film, is going to streaming, so this trend seems to be happening in real time.

I just don’t get why they can’t have releases in both theatres and streaming, thus giving consumers all the opportunity to watch their projects, but I digress.

 

[andrew]

Affleck is 100% on point here for where the future of theatrical is headed:

Interesting points. I do wonder if that is necessarily a bad thing? For a number of reasons, I have to watch movies at home (part of me misses the theater experience, but I do not miss the prices, having to get there at a specific time, dealing with people talking/eating). And if watching at home, do I care if it is a two hour event or something split up over 7-8 hours? Not sure, it's entertainment and story telling all the same.

 

[MrBlonde]

Affleck is 100% on point here for where the future of theatrical is headed:

I feel like the mainstream theater is pretty much already there. It's a shame but we as a people vote with our wallets and Marvel alone took 30% of 2021's box office. I hope we make space for more movies because you need new content to truly surprise us these days.

 

[lowbudget]

I think its got to do with the spectacle for most people. A drama, comedy, or thriller can still make the emotional connection on the small screen. But the large scale visuals of Dune, a Marvel Movie, or even Mortal Kombat are lost on the small screen. I think Dune is a great example, having watched it on the small screen the story was still good and worth watching, but the theatre experience really added a sense of scale to the movie for me that I missed at home.

I see it as a good thing, give me a premium experience about 3-4 times a year, then let me see everything else on the small screen. Reduced production budgets for smaller movies make it easier to green light something risky, higher ticket prices raise the yield and bar for things deserving of the big screen.