Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[quinnmac000]

Yeah, i'm not arguing with you on that. I don't know what that random assortment of films you gave me is even supposed to mean as it all falls within the average drops for the priors MCU phases as I was saying.

But i'll give you the top 10 films of 2022:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - 28.9% ($617.9) - 4,735 theaters
2. Doctor Strange 2 - 67% (411.1) - 4,534
3. The Batman - 50.4% ($369.3) - 4,417
4. Jurassic World: Dominion - 59.2% ($359.7) - 4,676
5. Minions 2 - 56.9% ($262.5) - 4,391
6. Thor: Love and Thunder - 68.1% ($233.1) - 4,375
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 67.5% (231.8) - 4,206
8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 59.4% (190.8) - 4,234
9. Uncharted - 47.7% ($148.6) - 4,275
10. Lightyear - 64.1% ($115.1) - 4,255
11. Elvis - 40.9% (106.2) - 3,906

I included Elvis in the 11 spot above since No Way Home is technically a 2021 film, but the money I put on there is strictly it's 2022 gross just like every other film. As you can see from this year's top 10, the only movies to fall even into the 60% range at all are either MCU movies or Pixar. So let's not act like this is normal. Blockbuster movies are happy with a 55% drop normally, but the MCU hasn't stayed below 60% since Shang-Chi had a 54% drop last September.

Green = Healthy/Long Legs
Yellow = Average
Red = Below average/Shorter Legs (No Way Home is an exception to this as its second weekend was wonky with Christmas being on a Saturday).

What OLS was saying is back in the day....films had time to grow and gain a fanbase by not opening as wide as we do now. So if a film opened with only 150 screens and continually grew from WOM and more...we wouldn't see drops like we are seeing nowadays.

However to counter Disney plus

Survey: Consumers Already Cutting Entertainment Spending Amid Economic Woes

New VIP+ Survey: Rising fears over the state of the economy is spurring consumers to trim their outlay on movies, concerts and more.

variety.com

Young people cut back on video streaming services

The rise in the cost of living has led to more people cutting their subscription services.

www.bbc.co.uk

If young people are cutting the cord they aren't watching those films when they go streaming either. Also with people's money becoming thinner people are becoming more discriminate with their discretionary funds.

final point

Disney Gains More Streaming Subscribers From Hulu Than Disney+: What You Need To Know - Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS)

The Walt Disney Co.’s (NYSE: DIS) fastest-growing U.S. streaming service is not the eponymous jewel in its digital crown, but an asset it picked up as part of an acquisition three years ago.

www.benzinga.com

 

[DK745]

Covid is keeping people away but Thor Love and Thunder made more the 1st weekend than Ragnarok. Then its second weekend was less than Ragnarok's second weekend and a drop of 68% according to that one post.

Either people are waiting until Disney+ or just seems like bad word of mouth or fewer repeat viewings. Hard to compare since Ragnarok was pre-covid but still that's a huge drop.

 

[OLSinFLA]

Yeah, i'm not arguing with you on that. I don't know what that random assortment of films you gave me is even supposed to mean as it all falls within the average drops for the priors MCU phases as I was saying.

But i'll give you the top 10 films of 2022:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - 28.9% ($617.9) - 4,735 theaters
2. Doctor Strange 2 - 67% (411.1) - 4,534
3. The Batman - 50.4% ($369.3) - 4,417
4. Jurassic World: Dominion - 59.2% ($359.7) - 4,676
5. Minions 2 - 56.9% ($262.5) - 4,391
6. Thor: Love and Thunder - 68.1% ($233.1) - 4,375
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 67.5% (231.8) - 4,206
8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 59.4% (190.8) - 4,234
9. Uncharted - 47.7% ($148.6) - 4,275
10. Lightyear - 64.1% ($115.1) - 4,255
11. Elvis - 40.9% (106.2) - 3,906

I included Elvis in the 11 spot above since No Way Home is technically a 2021 film, but the money I put on there is strictly it's 2022 gross just like every other film. As you can see from this year's top 10, the only movies to fall even into the 60% range at all are either MCU movies or Pixar. So let's not act like this is normal. Blockbuster movies are happy with a 55% drop normally, but the MCU hasn't stayed below 60% since Shang-Chi had a 54% drop last September.

Green = Healthy/Long Legs
Yellow = Average
Red = Below average/Shorter Legs (No Way Home is an exception to this as its second weekend was wonky with Christmas being on a Saturday).

What I'm pointing out that even with the huge drop Thor made nearly as much (or more) that many of these films. Which mean, as I pointed out, it's front-loaded. Coupled with 2022 still struggling for attendance... the majority of the audience is going to hit the first week. No matter how you twist it, the film is still a financial success.

 

[Nick]

What I'm pointing out that even with the huge drop Thor made nearly as much (or more) that many of these films. Which mean, as I pointed out, it's front-loaded. Coupled with 2022 still struggling for attendance... the majority of the audience is going to hit the first week. No matter how you twist it, the film is still a financial success.

Thor 4 had a budget said to be roughly around $250M. When you account for marketing, it needs to make $500M worldwide to break even as generally the rule of thumb is that the marketing budget is close to the same as the production budget. The movie has made $499M worldwide currently, so it's pretty much gotten to the break even point and it will be a financial success for sure. However, I only see the movie making around $700-$750M, meaning it's going to be one of the less profitable MCU films, down there with the Ant-Man movies.

 

[Nick]

 

[Jerroddragon]

Not surprised

Went to a Regal last night for Dragonball, it was nice but nooooooooooo one was there.

Many will say yes because its a Thursday night but the AMC's I've been to are busy on most nights and at least have a line for food but not at this Regal I went to.

Regal should have changed its movie pass, paying a fee everytime you see a movie is just plain stupid compared to A-list

 

[Nick]

Not surprised

Went to a Regal last night for Dragonball, it was nice but nooooooooooo one was there.

Many will say yes because its a Thursday night but the AMC's I've been to are busy on most nights and at least have a line for food but not at this Regal I went to.

Regal should have changed its movie pass, paying a fee everytime you see a movie is just plain stupid compared to A-list

Well the May/June/July period was packed, but after Bullet Train was released, there's literally nothing big coming out until Halloween Ends and Black Adam in October.

Basically September is nothing but re-releases as far as anything of worth. Avatar, No Way Home, Jaws, ET, Pitch Perfect, etc. I'll probably go see Avatar just because i'd like to see that in a theater again, but I may not even do that and if I don't, I won't go to a theater until November for Wakanda Forever.

 

[Jerroddragon]

Well the May/June/July period was packed, but after Bullet Train was released, there's literally nothing big coming out until Halloween Ends and Black Adam in October.

Basically September is nothing but re-releases as far as anything of worth. Avatar, No Way Home, Jaws, ET, Pitch Perfect, etc. I'll probably go see Avatar just because i'd like to see that in a theater again, but I may not even do that and if I don't, I won't go to a theater until November for Wakanda Forever.

I'm pretty excited for this but its on streaming so doubt it makes much

Dragonball in some theaters near me are packed and others have no one. But at least the regals near me when i do go, they just dont have as many people as AMC. I think Alist brings people in and I many times will get popcorn for older movies like ET which just came out and Rogue one is out next weekend.

I hope Regal can find a way to float but think it starts with their plan, they need to change it to 3 a week and no fees, then let you pay a fee to see extra movies.

 

[Lucky Planet]

I will miss theaters dearly but after the giant disappointments that were doctor strange and thor 4 this year, it really left a sour taste in my mouth and I almost felt robbed.
Top gun was ok but nothing great.
This year I felt more disappointed/ ripped off than I felt good about going to theaters. Thor 4 and doctor strange kinda made me wanna quit marvel in theaters all together

 

[Nick]

I will miss theaters dearly but after the giant disappointments that were doctor strange and thor 4 this year, it really left a sour taste in my mouth and I almost felt robbed.
Top gun was ok but nothing great.
This year I felt more disappointed/ ripped off than I felt good about going to theaters. Thor 4 and doctor strange kinda made me wanna quit marvel in theaters all together

lol, you're pointing out some of the few films that actually helped theaters. Top Gun: Maverick has made almost $1.4 billion worldwide, Doctor Strange made $950M and Thor 4 should end around $750M (currently at $727M). I won't deny the quality was off with Thor 4 though. Other movies like Minions 2 with $792M, Jurassic World 3 made $975M, and No Way Home (which made much of its money in 2022). Uncharted, Sonic 2, and Fantastic Beasts 3 all contributed roughly $400M each.

The problem is that with streaming now, people are only going to theaters to see blockbusters like I mentioned. Smaller films don't typically do well. Everything Everywhere All At Once was the rare mid-level film that broke through earlier this year, but movie theaters need a lot more of those to fill dead spaces in the calendar and now a lot of those films just get sent straight to Netflix or something instead of having a theatrical run.

The Adam Project is a good example of a movie I could've seen doing well as a smaller movie at the box office, but they were offered more money to go direct to streaming and the film was received extremely well and because so many people have Netflix, it was seen way more than it would've been if it went to theaters. There's just really no incentive to do a theatrical release over a streaming release anymore on smaller budget film if Netflix is just throwing around cash at you that automatically recoups your investment and then some.

 

[jseal777]

Time for a damn Drive-In Theater resurgence. The Monetta near me is fantastic but they skew fairly family friendly so you have to have a keen eye to catch good horror movies and stuff there most of the time. They have 3 screens though so every weekend is something for everybody plus their concessions include cheap cheeseburgers and chili dogs. One of my favorite experiences of the past couple years was seeing "old" at the drive in with my pup. Movie was awful but I had a cheeseburger and popcorn and my wife and pit to keep me company out in the middle of nowhere.

Cannot believe drive-ins didn't do a big marketing push at the height of "social distancing" offering old cheap horror classics and stuff. Oh well.

To go back slightly on topic has anybody had the experience of going to a theater not long after they opened back up and noticed it just straight up smelled like feet? The regal where I live is always dirty and stale despite the fact they had all that downtime to clean up. :sick:


Edit*

I did shell out some cash to see NOPE at an imax near me (still regal chain) and it was the best experience I have had since seeing Endgame.

 

[Nick]

Cannot believe drive-ins didn't do a big marketing push at the height of "social distancing" offering old cheap horror classics and stuff. Oh well.

There was. There's just not enough drive-ins left.

 

[Lucky Planet]

lol, you're pointing out some of the few films that actually helped theaters. Top Gun: Maverick has made almost $1.4 billion worldwide, Doctor Strange made $950M and Thor 4 should end around $750M (currently at $727M). I won't deny the quality was off with Thor 4 though. Other movies like Minions 2 with $792M, Jurassic World 3 made $975M, and No Way Home (which made much of its money in 2022). Uncharted, Sonic 2, and Fantastic Beasts 3 all contributed roughly $400M each.

The problem is that with streaming now, people are only going to theaters to see blockbusters like I mentioned. Smaller films don't typically do well. Everything Everywhere All At Once was the rare mid-level film that broke through earlier this year, but movie theaters need a lot more of those to fill dead spaces in the calendar and now a lot of those films just get sent straight to Netflix or something instead of having a theatrical run.

The Adam Project is a good example of a movie I could've seen doing well as a smaller movie at the box office, but they were offered more money to go direct to streaming and the film was received extremely well and because so many people have Netflix, it was seen way more than it would've been if it went to theaters. There's just really no incentive to do a theatrical release over a streaming release anymore on smaller budget film if Netflix is just throwing around cash at you that automatically recoups your investment and then some.

That's why I mentioned top gun.
I know it made very very big. Very big. But it was something I could watch at home. I know it sounds like sacrilege but I didn't need to see it on theaters

I know the planes were real and the stunts were real. But yes. Streaming makes things easier. Comfortable and cheaper
And if a person is talking loudly or something in the theater. The experience is ruined

 

[Jamesh22]

That's why I mentioned top gun.
I know it made very very big. Very big. But it was something I could watch at home. I know it sounds like sacrilege but I didn't need to see it on theaters

I know the planes were real and the stunts were real. But yes. Streaming makes things easier. Comfortable and cheaper
And if a person is talking loudly or something in the theater. The experience is ruined

I'm going to have to disagree and say that Top Gun is the one film of 2022 you absolutely did have to see in a theater... but I get the point about price, convinience and not having the experience ruined.

 

[Jerroddragon]

The Woman King
Pearl (Prequel to X and A24 film)
Clerks 3
Dont Worry Darling
Honk for Jesus
Dragonball Super Heroes

Along with Spiderman, Avatar and Rogue One coming to theaters soon again.

Also Fire is Love, is having its first major release showing this Wednesdays



To me, people just need to expand their pallets on films. AMC and Regal have 5 dollar Tuesday's. I think Regal needs to do better with its subscription but for me I have basically a movie to see every week in theaters with AMC A-list and its way with its cost.

 

[Lucky Planet]

 

[Nick]

Lots of release date changes from the mouse house theatrically. The undated Marvel movie that moved to September 2024 instead of 2/16/24 has always been rumored to be Deadpool 3. Rogue Squadron was removed from the schedule altogether.

 

[Nick]

Amazon is set to commit $1B yearly to theatrical releases, supposedly between 12 and 15 films per year. This should help fill the theatrical marketplace with movies to play during a lot of the completely dead periods we've been seeing since COVID hit.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I like that. Genuinely part of the struggle to get me back to the theatres has been Covid anxiety, and true lacking of content. I need more than superhero movies to get me back.

 

[Mad Dog]

1 Billion....Heck...That's 'one' Disney tentpole movie with marketing costs included.