Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[AlexanderMBush]

Warner Bros. will release all of its new 2021 movies simultaneously on HBO Max

For a period of one month in the United States.

www.theverge.com

The Movie Theater Experience is dead.

 

[RevFreako]

Warner Bros. will release all of its new 2021 movies simultaneously on HBO Max

For a period of one month in the United States.

www.theverge.com

The Movie Theater Experience is dead.

View attachment 13576

I hate to say I told you so

 

[Nick]

I hate to say I told you so

I mean it's been obvious. This is just a HUGE nail in the coffin. It's also WB making a play to make HBO Max relevant with the average person since their subscribership is pretty low. Will be intresting what Disney has to say at Investors Day after this news... I wouldn't be surprised if they go in a fairly similar direction.

It's crazy how COVID has completely accelerated the death of movie theaters at such a rapid pace. It was already happening, but the shift probably wasn't going to be anything close to this bold for another 10 years. Everyone was afraid to try it which was what was keeping the theater industry going. COVID gave studios a reason to try PVOD and with everyone having a streaming service now, the timing is perfect.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

I mean it's been obvious. This is just a HUGE nail in the coffin. It's also WB making a play to make HBO Max relevant with the average person since their subscribership is pretty low. Will be intresting what Disney has to say at Investors Day after this news... I wouldn't be surprised if they go in a fairly similar direction.

It's crazy how COVID has completely accelerated the death of movie theaters at such a rapid pace. It was already happening, but the shift probably wasn't going to be anything close to this bold for another 10 years. Everyone was afraid to try it which was what was keeping the theater industry going. COVID gave studios a reason to try PVOD and with everyone having a streaming service now, the timing is perfect.

If they do--that'd..actually make me wonder about Spider-Man 3. Marvel Studios is directly making it, but Sony is distributing it. That sounds like they'd have to iron out something to make it work, perhaps a distribution deal of some kind.

 

[Nick]

If they do--that'd..actually make me wonder about Spider-Man 3. Marvel Studios is directly making it, but Sony is distributing it. That sounds like they'd have to iron out something to make it work, perhaps a distribution deal of some kind.

I'd imagine Sony would be willing to take a hefty payday if Disney was wiling to pay to have first-run distribution rights to Spider-man 3 (and maybe Homecoming and FFH packaged in) on Disney+. You have to think, Sony has Disney in a bad position. Sony could threaten to sell distribution to Netflix, Peacock, HBO Max, Apple TV, etc. Disney wants their MCU movies with THEM. They'll be forced to pay whatever Sony is asking if a situation like that were to come up.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Well, this is f’ing news. That’s my first reaction.

 

[RevFreako]

I mean it's been obvious. This is just a HUGE nail in the coffin. It's also WB making a play to make HBO Max relevant with the average person since their subscribership is pretty low. Will be intresting what Disney has to say at Investors Day after this news... I wouldn't be surprised if they go in a fairly similar direction.

It's crazy how COVID has completely accelerated the death of movie theaters at such a rapid pace. It was already happening, but the shift probably wasn't going to be anything close to this bold for another 10 years. Everyone was afraid to try it which was what was keeping the theater industry going. COVID gave studios a reason to try PVOD and with everyone having a streaming service now, the timing is perfect.

It's been obvious to you, and to me, but read this thread alone, never mind the rest of the internet. I'm not trying to dance on graves here, but the lid is now off the box. There's no "Well, if PVOD doesn't make enough money." That's over. The film industry, the business end of it, will adapt or it will die.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

I'd imagine Sony would be willing to take a hefty payday if Disney was wiling to pay to have first-run distribution rights to Spider-man 3 (and maybe Homecoming and FFH packaged in) on Disney+. You have to think, Sony has Disney in a bad position. Sony could threaten to sell distribution to Netflix, Peacock, HBO Max, Apple TV, etc. Disney wants their MCU movies with THEM. They'll be forced to pay whatever Sony is asking if a situation like that were to come up.

Not just that, but they also want in on the Marvel pot. Honestly, I'm expecting two major deals on Investors Day. One for the distribution of any Sony Marvel film on Disney+ and services, and the other a potential buyout of the 21CP rights from WarnerMedia for streaming. If they can get those two in the pot (even if it costs them a billion), they'd be able to go completely in on the at-home approach.

That said, WarnerMedia is doing something that I really am surprised about. None of their 2021 films, will be upcharge on HBOMax. Even for a film like The Matrix 4 (which is actually getting bumped up!) or The Suicide Squad. I would've sworn they would be upcharged.

 

[Nick]

It's been obvious to you, and to me, but read this thread alone, never mind the rest of the internet. I'm not trying to dance on graves here, but the lid is now off the box. There's no "Well, if PVOD doesn't make enough money." That's over. The film industry, the business end of it, will adapt or it will die.

That's been the exhibition's biggest problem though all of this. They acted like we were just going to go back to normal and didn't really make any changes to their business model. For example, AMC has AMC Stubs. I've been preaching for months that AMC should've turned that into an app like iTunes, Vudu or Amazon where you can choose to stream PVOD movies from there and at least they are making some money they otherwise wouldn't have (and maybe they can use their stubs membership as an incentive to use the service? Offer one free movie non-premium movie per month?).

But instead, these theaters are just staying stagnant and not looking at where the winds are blowing. It's not in their favor at all right now and as you said, it's time to adapt or die. We're about to see a lot of abandoned movie theaters around the country soon as theater companies begin to downsize.

 

[HalfGlass]

I’m still of the mind that this is a reaction to the uncertainty of what “return to normal” will be. The fact that they’re still releasing them in theaters shows me that they’re still invested in theatrical distribution, and this give leeway to people who will be craving to get out of their homes and back to theaters, especially for bigger releases like The Matrix.

I wouldn’t be surprised if none of WB’s 2022 tent pole movies (I.e. The Batman, etc) go to HBO Max day and date. This is an exploratory measure, but also one that keeps investors happy, combats future uncertainty and also leaves the door open for theatrical runs moving forward. It’s really a reaction to Disney+, Netflix and others dominating the streaming space and putting HBO Max on the map until their DC (Green Lantern, etc) and other familiar and well-regarded TV properties can be more readily accessible on the platform to keep and gain subscribers

 

[Nick]

Not just that, but they also want in on the Marvel pot. Honestly, I'm expecting two major deals on Investors Day. One for the distribution of any Sony Marvel film on Disney+ and services, and the other a potential buyout of the 21CP rights from WarnerMedia for streaming. If they can get those two in the pot (even if it costs them a billion), they'd be able to go completely in on the at-home approach.

That said, WarnerMedia is doing something that I really am surprised about. None of their 2021 films, will be upcharge on HBOMax. Even for a film like The Matrix 4 (which is actually getting bumped up!) or The Suicide Squad. I would've sworn they would be upcharged.

The service is $15 a month, which is why their subscribership is so low. These movies going on HBO Max is simply about getting the subscribership numbers up.

And I don't think Disney will buyout the 21CP deal with Warner. I think they'll just let that deal expire, tbh.

 

[RevFreako]

I’m still of the mind that this is a reaction to the uncertainty of what “return to normal” will be. The fact that they’re still releasing them in theaters shows me that they’re still invested in theatrical distribution, and this give leeway to people who will be craving to get out of their homes and back to theaters, especially for bigger releases like The Matrix.

I wouldn’t be surprised if none of WB’s 2022 tent pole movies (I.e. The Batman, etc) go to HBO Max day and date. This is an exploratory measure, but also one that keeps investors happy, combats future uncertainty and also leaves the door open for theatrical runs moving forward. It’s really a reaction to Disney+, Netflix and others dominating the streaming space.

Here's the thing. A WB doesn't care how you consume their product, as long as you consume it. You can go to the theater, watchbit streaming, or let them jam the film into your ears with a chopstick. The only reason the distributors have been so theater-focused is that the exhibitors have had the power to make them. That power is gone now, by and large, and unless the producers are incredibly foolish, it will not be coming back.

 

[PerceptiveCoot]

They've done Dune dirty.

I doubt this will happen, but it would be somewhat funny if theaters bounce back earlier than expected and Warner Bros. movies make pittances in comparison to other movies.

But if this is what Warner Bros is thinking for next year, then I think Raya and Black Widow are a lock for some Disney+ presence.

 

[Nick]

Here's the thing. A WB doesn't care how you consume their product, as long as you consume it. You can go to the theater, watchbit streaming, or let them jam the film into your ears with a chopstick. The only reason the distributors have been so theater-focused is that the exhibitors have had the power to make them. That power is gone now, by and large, and unless the producers are incredibly foolish, it will not be coming back.

Yup, as I said a few weeks ago...

Disney+ has said that by sometime around the mid-2020’s they expect their spending on content to be $10B. If they are spending that much on content (and also btw aren’t paying to license anything like Netflix, either), then I actually think streaming services are the natural new home for blockbusters. And the company will make more money.

John Campea ran a rough expenditure tally if Disney+ reaches Netflix level spending, subscribers, etc. except they’ll never have to spend the outrageous amount Netflix does on third party content and they probably won’t be producing as much “stuff”. Disney would use their budget to focus on high profile series and movies, and even if they stayed at their current $7 price (they won’t), they would be an incredibly profitable business, generating ~$7 BILLION per year (again, once they reach Netflix levels).

A $200M film will flop on PVOD, but it will do great on streaming. The movies would just be made for a different purpose now, which is subscribers.

Movies don't need to have a box office total to make a company money. They can help make the company money by bringing in subscribers. It's just a different way of getting to the same point.

 

[belloq87]

This is extraordinarily depressing news.

 

[Nick]

This is extraordinarily depressing news.

I agree, but I came to terms with it around page 15

 

[OLSinFLA]

I cannot see this model working for multi-million films forever. I expect Warners will take a substantial loss on every one of those films (and use it was a write off). But this will severly impact thinking on future films - as in, greenlighting them or not. I'd not be suprised to see a swarth of future films not yet in production "delayed" or "cancelled" or have budgets severly reduced.

 

[Legacy]

I’ll be honest, there are a few movies that I’ll watch “opening weekend” this way that I would be unlikely to ever watch under the traditional model (Tom and Jerry and Space Jam, especially).

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

I agree, but I came to terms with it around page 15

I did too, but like, this is the moment. So it’s a lot to take in.

My wonder, or fear, and feel free to call me crazy as this is a gut reaction to all of this:

With the success of Mando, MCU shows coming, are we looking at big blockbusters turning into shows from now on? Or maybe not now, but in the 2020s? I’ve read this theory elsewhere, it makes me wonder. I wonder if it’s a great thing, awful thing, idk. Netflix type budget films are what get produced by far the most (across any Studio not just Netflix but you hear the point), and big event blockbusters that can’t retain a billion themselves are gonna be few and far between?Idk, major gut reaction lol but this is a thought.

 

[RevFreako]

This is extraordinarily depressing news.

Depends on perspective. It was sad when Blockbuster died too, but it had to happen for the industry to evolve.

I cannot see this model working for multi-million films forever. I expect Warners will take a substantial loss on every one of those films (and use it was a write off). But this will severly impact thinking on future films - as in, greenlighting them or not. I'd not be suprised to see a swarth of future films not yet in production "delayed" or "cancelled" or have budgets severly reduced.

"Adapt or die" applies to the production end too. The film industry desperately needs an accounting streamlining.