Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[Nick]

Cruella definitely feels like a Disney+ joint.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Jungle Cruise ends up on Disney+. I actually think it's a bit premature for them to be talking about the Pan and Pinocchio movies as both of those haven't finished filming yet. I'm not even sure if they both have started, tbh. Although I wouldn't be surprised if all Disney live-action remakes just automatically go to Disney+ now with maybe a short theatrical release.

 

[Grabnar]

In regards to Black Widow, there's a strategic element to releasing now as well; we're post- Infinity War, in-between phases. They really need to release some kind of content out there to keep Marvel in the cultural zeitgeist before pushing their Disney+ shows which are inherently going to fight an uphill battle for viewership even without a huge covid shaped gap in their release plans.

Although I wouldn't be surprised if all Disney live-action remakes just automatically go to Disney+ now with maybe a short theatrical release.

It would help if they weren't all pretty bad

 

[OLSinFLA]

In regards to Black Widow, there's a strategic element to releasing now as well; we're post- Infinity War, in-between phases. They really need to release some kind of content out there to keep Marvel in the cultural zeitgeist before pushing their Disney+ shows which are inherently going to fight an uphill battle for viewership even without a huge covid shaped gap in their release plans.


It would help if they weren't all pretty bad

I actually thought both "Cinderella" and "The Jungle Book" were quite good. Probably because they weren't a beat-for-beat remake..

 

[Fedic]

Universal strikes another deal with a major theater chain

Another major movie theater chain has struck a deal with Universal Pictures to allow for shorter exclusive theatrical windows.

apnews.com

 

[MrBlonde]

Universal strikes another deal with a major theater chain

Another major movie theater chain has struck a deal with Universal Pictures to allow for shorter exclusive theatrical windows.

apnews.com

Once the big ones fell, it's only a matter of time for the rest to fall in line.

Universal has leverage because if a chain holds out after AMC took the deal, their recourse is to not show the movie, which then becomes exclusive content at AMC's and Cinemarks, etc. It's take it or leave it (at least domestically).

 

[Nick]

The largest Canadian theater chain has also agreed to virtually the same deal as the one Universal signed with Cinemark.

 

[Nick]

Croods 2 opened pretty good in a slumping theatrical time (Only just over 2200 theaters are operating domestically). I'd think that a movie like WW1984 would be able to pull substantially larger numbers around Christmas if it was exclusive to theaters even for like 2 weeks. I guess we'll still see how it performs in theaters, but obviously most will choose to watch it on HBO Max, so we'll never know how it would've done had they gone the other route they were considering.

 

[quinnmac000]

I just want to point out Universal has actually been the savior the cinema experience...for the past month they have had the number 1 film but additionally, this weekend they had the 4 (Universal owns Focus Features) of the top 5 films in the box office and the best film opening since the pandemic began beating out Tenet which was supposed to be the savior of theatre.

1. Croods: A New Age (Uni)2,211 theaters, 3-day: $9.7M, 5-day $14.2M/Wk 1
2. Freaky(Uni)1,735 theaters (-322), 3-day: $770K (-40%), 5-day: $1.1M/Total: $7M/Wk 3
3. War With Grandpa(101) 1,500 (-188) theaters, 3-day: $644K (-14%)/5-day: $892K/ Total: $17.2M/Wk 8
4. Let Him Go (Foc) 1,447 theaters (-460), 3-day: $453K (-37%)/5-day: $670K, Total: $8.7M/Wk 4
5. Come Play(Foc) 1,029 (-335) theaters, 3-day: $387K (-31%)/5-day $520K, Total: $8.7M/Wk 5

 

[Nick]

I just want to point out Universal has actually been the savior the cinema experience...for the past month they have had the number 1 film but additionally, this weekend they had the 4 (Universal owns Focus Features) of the top 5 films in the box office and the best film opening since the pandemic began beating out Tenet which was supposed to be the savior of theatre.

1. Croods: A New Age (Uni)2,211 theaters, 3-day: $9.7M, 5-day $14.2M/Wk 1
2. Freaky(Uni)1,735 theaters (-322), 3-day: $770K (-40%), 5-day: $1.1M/Total: $7M/Wk 3
3. War With Grandpa(101) 1,500 (-188) theaters, 3-day: $644K (-14%)/5-day: $892K/ Total: $17.2M/Wk 8
4. Let Him Go (Foc) 1,447 theaters (-460), 3-day: $453K (-37%)/5-day: $670K, Total: $8.7M/Wk 4
5. Come Play(Foc) 1,029 (-335) theaters, 3-day: $387K (-31%)/5-day $520K, Total: $8.7M/Wk 5

Short-term, yes. But Theaters are also signing their long-term death notices with the new theatrical windows, so there's also that.

 

[Disneyhead]

I think I'm going to see Freaky on $5 Tuesdays at Cinemark. I pass by it on my way home from work.

Short-term, yes. But Theaters are also signing their death notices with the new theatrical windows, so there's also that.

Maybe not. These days, after the first two weeks most theaters are practically empty. Shorter theatrical windows opens up theaters for more Indy and foreign films that are usually squeezed out of the market by the blockbusters.

 

[TheGentTrent]

The numbers for The Croods are pretty impressive for a seven year-old sequel to one of DreamWorks's mostly forgotten films. Especially since it didn't get the full marketing blitz that Universal typically throws at their animated pictures.

 

[OLSinFLA]

I think I'm going to see Freaky on $5 Tuesdays at Cinemark. I pass by it on my way home from work.


Maybe not. These days, after the first two weeks most theaters are practically empty. Shorter theatrical windows opens up theaters for more Indy and foreign films that are usually squeezed out of the market by the blockbusters.

Yeah, except for rare occasions by week 3 most films are grossing 25% of what they did in week one. And, ironically, thats especially true for most "blockbusters"

 

[Disneyhead]

Yeah, except for rare occasions by week 3 most films are grossing 25% of what they did in week one. And, ironically, thats especially true for most "blockbusters"

The shorter window will hurt profits of films like Knives Out, that gained audience from word of mouth. But they are going straight to streaming after so maybe not.

 

[Nick]

The shorter window will hurt profits of films like Knives Out, that gained audience from word of mouth. But they are going straight to streaming after so maybe not.

No it won't. If movies are making money in theaters, theaters will continue to play them past the 3 week period even once they're on PVOD. Per the contract, Universal is allowed to go to PVOD early, but the movies can stay in theaters as long as they want.

Also, if a movie is performing exceptionally well, Universal or whatever studio doesn't have to (and likely won't) put it on PVOD at the 3 week period.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Honestly, the flexibility of all of this will make for an overall better movie experience as a whole than before. People will truly have options (although let’s see pricing lol) and id like to believe it’d get more people watching films that aren’t just blockbusters. Hopeful, but I can hope haha.

One thing that I bet stays in whatever form theatres re-open in/under whatever management, membership deals like AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited. Idk about Regal, but AMC just profiting off of this. I believe if there can just somehow be a more proper nationwide campaign for a service like that, people would be in theatres more often spending a few bucks on candy each week. Again, maybe being hopeful, but with the even more-so changing showtimes week to week it seems in the future it’ll be interesting how it plays out. I personally dig it but, idk if the masses would love it.

 

[Nick]

I still think theaters probably die out though. Studios are turning to their streamers at an alarming rate for their films and Parmount is gonna have it's own place to drop stuff potentially once CBS All Access becomes Paramount+ next year and the Paramount/Viacom catalog of movies gets added to the service along with the rebranding.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

I don't anticipate theaters dying. As long as people want to get out of the house, there's still a market for them. The only fundamental difference will be new theatrical windows, which may not even be a big deal considering The Croods had the highest opening of the pandemic despite PVOD in 3 weeks. A much more flexible release model is coming, and there will be more experimentation over the next year to decide what works best for studios and theaters alike.

 

[rageofthegods]

There's also the brutal fact that movies released directly to streaming don't make nearly as much money as movies released in theaters. Not only are you foregoing theatrical revenue, you're basically culling an entire ecosystem of downstream revenue when you release DTC.

 

[OLSinFLA]

The shorter window will hurt profits of films like Knives Out, that gained audience from word of mouth. But they are going straight to streaming after so maybe not.

Lets look at "Knives Out" (a great film BTW) - going the traditional 3-day weekend it grossed $26 million By week to it was $14 million . By week 3 slightly more than $9 million. Now the film had some additional help because it hit Thanksgiving and Christmas. Neartly 40 % of it's total boxoffice take was in the first 3 weeks. Now, take the majority of films which aren't blockbusters, don't have big names, and they're usually reduced to the small (200 or less) auditorium by week 3

 

[RevFreako]

I don't anticipate theaters dying. As long as people want to get out of the house, there's still a market for them. The only fundamental difference will be new theatrical windows, which may not even be a big deal considering The Croods had the highest opening of the pandemic despite PVOD in 3 weeks. A much more flexible release model is coming, and there will be more experimentation over the next year to decide what works best for studios and theaters alike.

They're not going to die, but their future health depends mightily on their recognizing that they don't ride herd over the industry anymore, and the days of the theaters calling the shors on distribution may well be over.