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Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

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In the terms of this weekend, Free Guy takes the #1 spot domestically for 25 million; exceeding the expectations originally placed onto the film itself.



So much so that like Cruella, Disney is seemingly looking to get the green light going for Free Guy 2.


Disney supposedly has been in love with the thought of this as a new franchise ever since they acquired FOX and after seeing the reviews and watching the movie, I’m soooo glad Free Guy is getting a sequel!
 
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I admittedly wonder about Free Guy in all this. It's getting highly positive receptions from critics and audiences, has an A on Cinemascore and has a few weeks before Shang-Chi comes in. I wonder if it might have a legitimate chance to have legs over the next month or so; especially with films beginning to be pushed back slightly.
 
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I admittedly wonder about Free Guy in all this. It's getting highly positive receptions from critics and audiences, has an A on Cinemascore and has a few weeks before Shang-Chi comes in. I wonder if it might have a legitimate chance to have legs over the next month or so; especially with films beginning to be pushed back slightly.

A DP, but the weekend revenues are now in: Free Guy actually earned 28.4 million on domestic this weekend; marking the highest for an original large-budget film this year.


Don't Breathe 2 also raked in a bit of profits, earning 10.6 million; with Jungle Cruise at 9 million; and Respect at fourth at 8.8.
 
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Disney may be popping a celebratory bottle of champagne, but movie theater operators are facing a dire situation. The box office recovery has come in fits and starts, and it has been a mostly homogenous demographic showing up to the movies. So far, the highest grossing movies of the year — Marvel’s comic book adventure “Black Widow” ($178 million), Universal’s “F9: The Fast Saga” ($172 million), Paramount’s thriller “A Quiet Place Part II” ($159 million) and, by a wide gap, the Warner Bros. tentpole “Godzilla vs. Kong” ($99 million) — are all-audience films that appeal to a slightly older group, mainly between the ages of 18 and 35. For “Free Guy,” 59% of opening weekend ticket buyers were male and nearly 80% were above the age of 18.

Notably absent from the year’s biggest earners? Movies geared toward family audiences. In pre-pandemic times, kid-friendly features had been crucial for attendance levels — and popcorn sales (families often splurge at the concessions stand). Currently, kids under the age of 12 aren’t able to get vaccinated, making it less appealing for parents to take the whole family to the movies.

“You see a $28 million opening for “Free Guy” and think theaters are doing great, but we’re talking about an audience that is mostly single males,” Bock says. “They certainly aren’t spending a lot on concessions compared to families.”



Its stuff like that that makes me fear for the future of film.
 
Disney may be popping a celebratory bottle of champagne, but movie theater operators are facing a dire situation. The box office recovery has come in fits and starts, and it has been a mostly homogenous demographic showing up to the movies. So far, the highest grossing movies of the year — Marvel’s comic book adventure “Black Widow” ($178 million), Universal’s “F9: The Fast Saga” ($172 million), Paramount’s thriller “A Quiet Place Part II” ($159 million) and, by a wide gap, the Warner Bros. tentpole “Godzilla vs. Kong” ($99 million) — are all-audience films that appeal to a slightly older group, mainly between the ages of 18 and 35. For “Free Guy,” 59% of opening weekend ticket buyers were male and nearly 80% were above the age of 18.

Notably absent from the year’s biggest earners? Movies geared toward family audiences. In pre-pandemic times, kid-friendly features had been crucial for attendance levels — and popcorn sales (families often splurge at the concessions stand). Currently, kids under the age of 12 aren’t able to get vaccinated, making it less appealing for parents to take the whole family to the movies.

“You see a $28 million opening for “Free Guy” and think theaters are doing great, but we’re talking about an audience that is mostly single males,” Bock says. “They certainly aren’t spending a lot on concessions compared to families.”


Its stuff like that that makes me fear for the future of film.
Film has a great future. Theaters don't.

I would argue Jungle Cruise has been a relatively successful family film, though, and it is almost certainly going to pass GvK in domestic gross and get over the $100M mark.
 
Film has a great future. Theaters don't.

I would argue Jungle Cruise has been a relatively successful family film, though, and it is almost certainly going to pass GvK in domestic gross and get over the $100M mark.

More so the question is how many families went to see Jungle Cruise...

It seems 66% of the audience who went to see Jungle Cruise was over 18 which still goes into that demo that only adults are showing up to the movies...

Jungle Cruise
did well with audiences earning an A- CinemaScore, which is the same Johnson received on Rampage and San Andreas. CinemaScore/Screen Engine audience exits on PostTrak were very good with 80% in the top two boxes and a 60% from the general audience, while kids under 12 enjoyed the Disney theme park-inspired pic even more with 87% positive and a 70% recommend. Males showed up at 52%, females at 48% with 52% over 25 with 34% under 17 years old. Diversity demos were 55% Caucasian, 18% Latino, 13% Black, & 14% Asian/other.

In other news...
 
In other news...
Sony has been the smartest studio this whole pandemic. Instead of releasing movies to theaters, they've been selling almost all of theirs to streamers so they are guaranteed to at least make back the money they spent on the films. They've sold a ton of movies to Netflix as well such as Vivo, Mitchells vs. the Machines, Wish Dragon, Hansel and Gretel, etc.
 
Sony has been the smartest studio this whole pandemic. Instead of releasing movies to theaters, they've been selling almost all of theirs to streamers so they are guaranteed to at least make back the money they spent on the films. They've sold a ton of movies to Netflix as well such as Vivo, Mitchells vs. the Machines, Wish Dragon, Hansel and Gretel, etc.

I think its complicated...for the animators who thought they were going to be on the big screen, it has to be disappointing as well as for some of the talent. I know Pixar staff got upset they didn't even get the hybrid release.
 
Any movie that counts kids under 13 as a large portion of their audience is in a difficult position, as many families are justifiably wary of returning to theaters before they can get vaccinated. In other words, I think the sale is a good move, as were the other animated flicks. (It doesn't hurt that some of those films weren't particularly good, and they probably stood to make more from a sale than a traditional theatrical bow, even in more normal times.)
 
Any movie that counts kids under 13 as a large portion of their audience is in a difficult position, as many families are justifiably wary of returning to theaters before they can get vaccinated. In other words, I think the sale is a good move, as were the other animated flicks. (It doesn't hurt that some of those films weren't particularly good, and they probably stood to make more from a sale than a traditional theatrical bow, even in more normal times.)
I also think there is a larger trend towards families staying at home. Look at the underperformance of various high-profile animated films in 2019. Whether that's because the quality of offerings on streaming has increased or because parents have been burned by too many crappy movies, I think this trend is going to continue post-pandemic, especially if you're not a marquee animation brand like Disney or Dreamworks.

This sucks for Sony though. They've been working hard to cultivate a unique style and the recognition gets deferred to streaming services.
 
I also think there is a larger trend towards families staying at home. Look at the underperformance of various high-profile animated films in 2019. Whether that's because the quality of offerings on streaming has increased or because parents have been burned by too many crappy movies, I think this trend is going to continue post-pandemic, especially if you're not a marquee animation brand like Disney or Dreamworks.

This sucks for Sony though. They've been working hard to cultivate a unique style and the recognition gets deferred to streaming services.

Not to beat the dead horse, but the "theatrical experience" is largely to blame for this, as well. It's hard to keep kids still and well-behaved during a movie. Even with child prices, you're still looking at large admission fees. And while adults can easily choose to forgo popcorn, sodas, and candy, kids have no such restraint. Going to the movies as a family shouldn't cost $100+, but if it does, you're only going to bother for the largest, can't-miss films. (To your point - Disney and some Dreamworks output.) I'm not convinced the theatrical business is all that practical for families at the scale it needs to support all of these movies.
 
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Not to beat the dead horse, but the "theatrical experience" is largely to blame for this, as well. It's hard to keep kids still and well-behaved during a movie. Even with child prices, you're lucky at large admission fees. And while adults can easily choose to forgo popcorn, sodas, and candy, kids have no such restraint. Going to the movies as a family shouldn't cost $100+, but if it does, you're only going to bother for the largest, can't-miss films. (To your point - Disney and some Dreamworks output.) I'm not convinced the theatrical business is all that practical for families at the scale it needs to support all of these movies.
Especially when you can just subscribe to Netflix and you're guaranteed at least one new movie per week. Their not always family movies, but there's normally at least 2 high profile ones per month.
 
Free Guy had pretty much the best hold of any movie all summer, dropping only 33.8% week over week, and bringing in another $18.8M domestic and getting to $111M worldwide, which means it’s made more than it’s production budget at the very least ($100M). Obviously the lack of competition this weekend helped a lot, but good word of mouth also must have helped.

 
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Free Guy had pretty much the best hold of any movie all summer, dropping only 33.8% week over week, and bringing in another $18.8M domestic and getting to $111M worldwide, which means it’s made more than it’s production budget at the very least ($100M). Obviously the lack of competition this weekend helped a lot, but good word of mouth also must have helped.



It's going to be super interesting to see how it fares in China, as it'll be the first non-sequel IP film on a large scale released in that country in a while by a US studio. I'll be very interested to know how exactly it fares, especially with the script and visuals.
 
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It's going to be super interesting to see how it fares in China, as it'll be the first non-sequel IP film on a large scale released in that country in a while by a US studio. I'll be very interested to know how exactly it fares, especially with the script and visuals.
Right now it’s still a struggle to get release dates in China though. I mean, Black Widow still doesn’t have a release date, despite being approved to be shown in the country.
 
Worth mentioning that Free Guy got a quick Chinese release date during its initial run which is a rarity these days. Just like how very few Chinese films make it over to the US as popular movies, I think we're going to see the same happen in China and films from outside of the country just are not resonating with audiences. Luca opened to only $5M this past week, for example. Now Pixar doesn't always hit a home run in China, but they just did with Soul at $100M total in China this past year so a $5M open is pretty low.
 
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Feige already is angry about Black Widow going to Premiere Access...Marvel films were made for cinema...marvel shows are made just for Disney+. This is how you get him to walk away.
Marvel films were made for cinema.
Honestly putting them on Disney + is fine. They are popular for sure and I am in the minority but there is MCU fatigue.
 
Honestly putting them on Disney + is fine. They are popular for sure and I am in the minority but there is MCU fatigue.
I wouldn’t classify it as fatigue yet as audiences still highly enjoy it, but especially with the Disney+ shows now AND four movies per year, there’s definitely over saturation.
 
I wouldn’t classify it as fatigue yet as audiences still highly enjoy it, but especially with the Disney+ shows now AND four movies per year, there’s definitely over saturation.
I’m curious how many shows we will get every year moving forward. I’m thinking 4-5, which is absolutely insane. Like next year we will most likely get Ms. Marvel, Moon Knight, She-Hulk, Secret Invasion, Guardians Holiday Special and possibly Armor Wars.
 

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