Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[jseal777]

Imagine making WW84 and then having a false sense of superiority when it comes to what movies are "real."

 

[Nick]

Imagine making WW84 and then having a false sense of superiority when it comes to what movies are "real."

And she got her full salary + bonuses for a movie that never would’ve performed on the same level as the first in theaters.

 

[Nick]

Although, and I realize i'm double posting here, I do believe we're misinterpreting Patty Jenkins' comments. She said: “I don’t hear about them, I don’t read about them. It’s not working as a model for establishing legendary greatness."

Read that again. She said nothing about the quality of the movies, so that's not what she's speaking on. The key part is "I don't hear about them, I don't read about them." What I believe her to be saying here (as I said the other day in my own opinion) is that the world of streaming moves so fast that movies come and go and if you blink, you'll miss about 3-5 films in a given week (if not more). That's what she means by "establishing legendary greatness". If a movie comes and goes over the course of a weekend and people never think about it again, it goes to her point that it is essentially a "fake" movie. There's nothing lasting about it.

At the very least what Cinemas get you are free advertising, even if you're going to see another movie
Although, and I realize i'm double posting here, I do believe we're misinterpreting Patty Jenkins' comments. She said: “I don’t hear about them, I don’t read about them. It’s not working as a model for establishing legendary greatness."

Read that again. She said nothing about the quality of the movies, so that's not what she's speaking on. The key part is "I don't hear about them, I don't read about them." What I believe her to be saying here (as I said the other day in my own opinion) is that the world of streaming moves so fast that movies come and go and if you blink, you'll miss about 3-5 films in a given week (if not more). That's what she means by "establishing legendary greatness". If a movie comes and goes over the course of a weekend and people never think about it again, it goes to her point that it is essentially a "fake" movie. There's nothing lasting about it.

At the very least what Cinemas get you are free advertising, even if you're going to see another movie (the name of your movie is on that screen when you're buying a ticket, right?) And if it's a good movie, you'll remember seeing it in a theater because people remember experiences versus just sitting on your couch and watching yet another movie from the same spot, with the same popcorn, on the same TV, and the same poor quality speakers.

 

[Cup_Of_Coffee]

Although, and I realize i'm double posting here, I do believe we're misinterpreting Patty Jenkins' comments. She said: “I don’t hear about them, I don’t read about them. It’s not working as a model for establishing legendary greatness."

Read that again. She said nothing about the quality of the movies, so that's not what she's speaking on. The key part is "I don't hear about them, I don't read about them." What I believe her to be saying here (as I said the other day in my own opinion) is that the world of streaming moves so fast that movies come and go and if you blink, you'll miss about 3-5 films in a given week (if not more). That's what she means by "establishing legendary greatness". If a movie comes and goes over the course of a weekend and people never think about it again, it goes to her point that it is essentially a "fake" movie. There's nothing lasting about it.

At the very least what Cinemas get you are free advertising, even if you're going to see another movie (the name of your movie is on that screen when you're buying a ticket, right?) And if it's a good movie, you'll remember seeing it in a theater because people remember experiences versus just sitting on your couch and watching yet another movie from the same spot, with the same popcorn, on the same TV, and the same poor quality speakers.

Ya this is how I read it also. Is anyone discussing Black Widow beyond the ScarJo suit! Mitchell’s and the Machines (name may be wrong, the animated Netflix film), Mank, Mortal Kombat, Raya, Cruella, etc.

I feel movies will become more like tv shows, in the sense of someone saying “oh I binged x show last week”, and never remember it again, movies will become a part of that. I think she has a point.

 

[Nick]

Ya this is how I read it also. Is anyone discussing Black Widow beyond the ScarJo suit! Mitchell’s and the Machines (name may be wrong, the animated Netflix film), Mank, Mortal Kombat, Raya, Cruella, etc.

I feel movies will become more like tv shows, in the sense of someone saying “oh I binged x show last week”, and never remember it again, movies will become a part of that. I think she has a point.

I mean, Black Widow and Cruella both were theatrical (along with PA for $30 on Disney+, so it wasn't like HBO Max and Disney+ was giving the movie away) and in BW's case is the highest grossing domestic movie of the year and #5 WW on the year (all of that before the Premiere Access money taken into account). So that's not a good example. Some theatrical movies are just forgettable, just as well as streaming movies are, because they aren't all that good. TBH, I didn't think, beyond Yelena and Red Guardian, that BW was all that good of a movie or even worth watching.

 

[Viator]

 

[belloq87]

For a C-list character (no judgment intended!), I think that would be a great number even in non-pandemic times, especially for Labor Day. Good! Hopefully that puts the breaks on studios pushing more movies back.

 

[Nick]

Well color me a bit surprised if this turns out true and not an over-estimate.

Sure, it’s for a 4-day and not 3-day, but this basically being along the same general monetary opening (theatrical) as Black Widow is impressive considering how Shang-Chi is incredibly unknown amongst most.
Considering incredibly high audience and critic scores, I wonder if good word of mouth may lead to a similar if not larger Worldwide total than Black Widow.

 

[Legacy]

Although, and I realize i'm double posting here, I do believe we're misinterpreting Patty Jenkins' comments. She said: “I don’t hear about them, I don’t read about them. It’s not working as a model for establishing legendary greatness."

Read that again. She said nothing about the quality of the movies, so that's not what she's speaking on. The key part is "I don't hear about them, I don't read about them." What I believe her to be saying here (as I said the other day in my own opinion) is that the world of streaming moves so fast that movies come and go and if you blink, you'll miss about 3-5 films in a given week (if not more). That's what she means by "establishing legendary greatness". If a movie comes and goes over the course of a weekend and people never think about it again, it goes to her point that it is essentially a "fake" movie. There's nothing lasting about it.

At the very least what Cinemas get you are free advertising, even if you're going to see another movie
Although, and I realize i'm double posting here, I do believe we're misinterpreting Patty Jenkins' comments. She said: “I don’t hear about them, I don’t read about them. It’s not working as a model for establishing legendary greatness."

Read that again. She said nothing about the quality of the movies, so that's not what she's speaking on. The key part is "I don't hear about them, I don't read about them." What I believe her to be saying here (as I said the other day in my own opinion) is that the world of streaming moves so fast that movies come and go and if you blink, you'll miss about 3-5 films in a given week (if not more). That's what she means by "establishing legendary greatness". If a movie comes and goes over the course of a weekend and people never think about it again, it goes to her point that it is essentially a "fake" movie. There's nothing lasting about it.

At the very least what Cinemas get you are free advertising, even if you're going to see another movie (the name of your movie is on that screen when you're buying a ticket, right?) And if it's a good movie, you'll remember seeing it in a theater because people remember experiences versus just sitting on your couch and watching yet another movie from the same spot, with the same popcorn, on the same TV, and the same poor quality speakers.

If that’s what she means, it’s a short-sighted perspective. More movies than not are forgotten regardless if they ever appear in theater, and we’ve seen new media become “legendary” via exclusive streaming (Mandalorian and Stranger Things established themselves on day one. Palm Springs was a deserved Oscar contender despite being a Hulu movie).

The first Austin Powers bombed at the box office, but became a “legendary” franchise through video rental (the streaming of that age). If her perspective is that the “theater experience” and the structure of theater distribution is the only thing that can make a movie “legendary,” then what’s she’s really saying is the delivery method is more important than the movie itself.

 

[rageofthegods]

If that’s what she means, it’s a short-sighted perspective. More movies than not are forgotten regardless if they ever appear in theater, and we’ve seen new media become “legendary” via exclusive streaming (Mandalorian and Stranger Things established themselves on day one. Palm Springs was a deserved Oscar contender despite being a Hulu movie).

The first Austin Powers bombed at the box office, but became a “legendary” franchise through video rental (the streaming of that age). If her perspective is that the “theater experience” and the structure of theater distribution is the only thing that can make a movie “legendary,” then what’s she’s really saying is the delivery method is more important than the movie itself.

Austin Powers made 54m on a 16m budget, it was a decently sized hit in theaters. And it became a huge hit on video rental because it was part of the initial wave of new movies released to DVD and was among the first home video releases to include major deleted scenes and behind the scenes featurettes, conditions that aren't really equivalent for Netflix.

I think the fact that Netflix is paying Endgame-level money for Knives Out speaks volumes to how desperate they are for movies that last in the public consciousness, and how bad they've been at launching film franchises in-house.

 

[Viator]

Shang-Chi has beaten the expectations of the 3 day, earning 71.4 million; with international (56.2 million) netting the film already, to earn over a staggering 127.6 million dollars, just on the 3 day and not counting 4 day.

It is now expected, that the 4 day total will be around that of 83.5 million dollars domestically; not only making it the highest grossing movie for Labor Day, but the second (I see @Nick bringing up BW still being #1..for now) highest grossing film on opening weekend this year, so-far.

 

[Nick]

Shang-Chi has beaten the expectations of the 3 day, earning 71.4 million; with international (56.2 million) netting the film already, to earn over a staggering 127.6 million dollars, just on the 3 day and not counting 4 day.

It is now expected, that the 4 day total will be around that of 83.5 million dollars domestically; not only making it the highest grossing movie for Labor Day, but the second (I see @Nick bringing up BW still being #1..for now) highest grossing film on opening weekend this year, so-far.

This film really ended up performing extremely similarly to Doctor Strange as the weekend progressed. The thought was it would perform more like Ant-Man, but good word of mouth + holiday weekend clearly did this film a lot of favors. Being the first film to focus on Asian-American characters in the MCU also may have drawn out a different audience than normal, not sure as I haven't seen the demographic turnout.

 

[Viator]

This film really ended up performing extremely similarly to Doctor Strange as the weekend progressed. The thought was it would perform more like Ant-Man, but good word of mouth + holiday weekend clearly did this film a lot of favors. Being the first film to focus on Asian-American characters in the MCU also may have drawn out a different audience than normal, not sure as I haven't seen the demographic turnout.

It makes me even more interested now for China, as Disney should be looking to get Shang-Chi out there as soon as they possibly can. Especially with Free Guy tearing through as per usual.

Speaking of Free Guy in China (and in general):

 

[belloq87]

Per Deadline, industry estimates for the four-day keep getting revised higher. Currently thought to have a chance to push $90m...

‘Shang-Chi’ To The Moon: Marvel Asian American Superhero Movie Wraps Labor Day Weekend With Record $94M+ & Best Monday During Pandemic

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings posted a solid Thursday preview gross of $8.8 million, looking toward a Labor Day weekend record.

deadline.com

As I said before, I think this would be considered a success for this film on this weekend in any year.

Being the first film to focus on Asian-American characters in the MCU also may have drawn out a different audience than normal, not sure as I haven't seen the demographic turnout.

From that Deadline piece, the estimated breakdown:

"Updated diversity demos are 36% Caucasian (92% grade), 22% Latino (88% grade), 18% Black (90% grade) and 18% Asian (who gave the MCU title it’s best grades at 94%). Disney exits show 61% males overall for Shang-Chi."

 

[quinnmac000]

Per Deadline, industry estimates for the four-day keep getting revised higher. Currently thought to have a chance to push $90m...

‘Shang-Chi’ To The Moon: Marvel Asian American Superhero Movie Wraps Labor Day Weekend With Record $94M+ & Best Monday During Pandemic

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings posted a solid Thursday preview gross of $8.8 million, looking toward a Labor Day weekend record.

deadline.com

As I said before, I think this would be considered a success for this film on this weekend in any year.



From that Deadline piece, the estimated breakdown:

"Updated diversity demos are 36% Caucasian (92% grade), 22% Latino (88% grade), 18% Black (90% grade) and 18% Asian (who gave the MCU title it’s best grades at 94%). Disney exits show 61% males overall for Shang-Chi."

I wonder why it didn't do as well with Latin but usually films don't get that high of Asian viewership so thats huge...but males strongly coming out also is what pushed Free Guys to the top as well as F9 so...the fact it is attracting lots of males is good.

 

[TheGentTrent]

You mean to tell me that if a movie stays exclusively in theaters, people will actually go and out and pay to see it? I’d have never guessed that listening to the studio execs the past year…

 

[Nick]

You mean to tell me that if a movie stays exclusively in theaters, people will actually go and out and pay to see it? I’d have never guessed that listening to the studio execs the past year…

I don’t understand your argument though, because it’s not like people got Black Widow (which opened higher) for free. They got it by paying an extra $30. HBO Max has been giving away their movies basically for no extra charge, but Disney has been making money one way or the other.

The advantage to theatrical exclusive mostly is that people are more likely to pay multiple times to see a movie if it’s good enough. If day and date sticks around, I see them limiting people to 24-hour rental going forward instead of unlimited watches.

 

[Jamesh22]

The advantage to theatrical exclusive mostly is that people are more likely to pay multiple times to see a movie if it’s good enough.

That and it isn't pirated within the first hour of release.

Hopefully this will have legs and studios will realise people will still come out for movies they think are high quality.
I really don't want to wait any longer for Bond, Halloween Kills, Dune or Spider-Man (maybe add Matrix to that once we get a damn trailer)

 

[Nick]

That and it isn't pirated within the first hour of release.

Hopefully this will have legs and studios will realise people will still come out for movies they think are high quality.
I really don't want to wait any longer for Bond, Halloween Kills, Dune or Spider-Man (maybe add Matrix to that once we get a damn trailer)

They wouldn’t have released that No Way Home trailer if they weren’t planning to release it in December still. By releasing the trailer, it’s essentially the start of a marketing campaign. Add on the HUGE performance of the trailer on YouTube and I see Spider-Man easily being the film to finally break a $100M open this year. Possibly $150M depending on where we are with movie going confidence in December.

 

[Legacy]

You mean to tell me that if a movie stays exclusively in theaters, people will actually go and out and pay to see it? I’d have never guessed that listening to the studio execs the past year…

I’m waiting. I haven’t seen a trailer for a single movie yet that’s made me say, “I’ll go to a theater for that.”

But, again, I have a 4K big-screen and quality surround sound.