Theatrical Future/PVOD Thread

[ThemeParks4Life]

I wouldn’t classify it as fatigue yet as audiences still highly enjoy it, but especially with the Disney+ shows now AND four movies per year, there’s definitely over saturation.

Shang-Chi and Eternals will be the real test for the MCU's long-term sustainability because they have the least appeal from a general audience standpoint. Even if Shang-Chi has the MCU's lowest opening (looking likely), it has no direct competition until No Time to Die in its 6th week. The pandemic hasn't stopped movies from having good staying power this summer (Free Guy, A Quiet Place, Cruella, Jungle Cruise), so if it craters in September, that would say a lot about general audiences' interest in new Marvel heroes. The MCU is lucky that the rest of Phase 4 relies on established, popular heroes, but what happens in Phase 5 once more contracts start expiring?

 

[Nick]

but what happens in Phase 5 once more contracts start expiring?

Ummm… Mutants?

 

[AlexanderMBush]

Mutants and Fantastic 4 come to mind; especially as both franchises will be mostly asleep for a good bit.

 

[AlexanderMBush]

DP but contrary to concerns of Hollywood being pushed out; Free Guy is already subverting expectations, possibly gaining 18 to 20 million dollars for opening weekend in China.

‘Free Guy’ Heading To No. 1 Weekend Spot In China As Hollywood Movies Return

After a two-month blackout period in China for Hollywood movies, Disney/20th Century Studios’ Free Guy is looking to lead all pics in the country at the weekend B.O. with a $18M+, possibly $20M take. That’s a promising start for one of the first big movies from Hollywood after a long-hiatus...

deadline.com

Also of note, the Maoyan score for this film exceeds Deadpool 2's (DP2 was rated in china at 7.2) with 9.0 so far. And with a solid douban of 7.8

 

[Nick]

DP but contrary to concerns of Hollywood being pushed out; Free Guy is already subverting expectations, possibly gaining 18 to 20 million dollars for opening weekend in China.

‘Free Guy’ Heading To No. 1 Weekend Spot In China As Hollywood Movies Return

After a two-month blackout period in China for Hollywood movies, Disney/20th Century Studios’ Free Guy is looking to lead all pics in the country at the weekend B.O. with a $18M+, possibly $20M take. That’s a promising start for one of the first big movies from Hollywood after a long-hiatus...

deadline.com

Also of note, the Maoyan score for this film exceeds Deadpool 2's (DP2 was rated in china at 7.2) with 9.0 so far. And with a solid douban of 7.8

Free Guy is exactly the type of American blockbuster that Chinese audiences love, so it's no surprise it's starting off well over there.

 

[HalfGlass]

‘Top Gun: Maverick,’ ‘Mission: Impossible 7’ Delayed by Paramount Amid COVID-19 Concerns

uh oh…

 

[Jamesh22]

No need to panic, just Paramount being Paramount.

 

[Nick]

If Shang-Chi doesn't deliver on expectations and hit $45M (and preferably hit at least a $50M+) this opening weekend, there is growing concern within the industry that it will set of a domino effect of movies being pushed back again.

 

[quinnmac000]

If Shang-Chi doesn't deliver on expectations and hit $45M (and preferably hit at least a $50M+) this opening this weekend, there is growing concern within the industry that it will set of a domino effect of movies being pushed back again.

Are you talking about the 3 day or the 4 day numbers?

Because this is a holiday weekend, they will use the 4 day count for the OW rather than 3 days which means it should hit really well if it is a hit...but I don't think even for a 4 day 50 million would suffice...especially for a marvel film that is trending super bad in Asia right now.

 

[Nick]

Are you talking about the 3 day or the 4 day numbers?

Because this is a holiday weekend, they will use the 4 day count for the OW rather than 3 days which means it should hit really well if it is a hit...but I don't think even for a 4 day 50 million would suffice...especially for a marvel film that is trending super bad in Asia right now.

It's projected for $45 over 4 days so, 4-day.

 

[belloq87]

I can't handle the whole release calendar moving again.

 

[Nick]

Patty Jenkins slamming the straight-to-streaming model:

 

[rageofthegods]

Patty Jenkins slamming the straight-to-streaming model:

Go off queen

 

[Legacy]

Deal with it. The future is now.

 

[Nick]

Deal with it. The future is now.

I also don't know what she's talking about. Like, yeah, there's some trash movies that come out on streaming and some that people have no idea about, but the same thing happens with theaters.

Maybe there isn't the amount of hype around a "blockbuster" streaming movie (think Army of the Dead, Without Remorse, The Tomorrow War, Luca, etc) as there otherwise may be if it was released in theaters, but who cares? Movies released on streaming are more accessible, and isn't that what filmmakers should want? Shouldn't they want their movies to be seen by a wide audience instead of gatekeeping what "Cinema" should really mean?

 

[rageofthegods]

Not sure why this is gatekeeping, there are 12,000 cinemas in the US and the areas that don't have one handy aren't exactly going to have streaming-friendly internet speed.

I also don't know what she's talking about. Like, yeah, there's some trash movies that come out on streaming and some that people have no idea about, but the same thing happens with theaters.

Maybe there isn't the amount of hype around a "blockbuster" streaming movie (think Army of the Dead, Without Remorse, The Tomorrow War, Luca, etc) as there otherwise may be if it was released in theaters, but who cares? Movies released on streaming are more accessible, and isn't that what filmmakers should want? Shouldn't they want their movies to be seen by a wide audience instead of gatekeeping what "Cinema" should really mean?

Shouldn't filmmakers want the movie they spent 2 years of their lives making to have as much hype as possible? Netflix might get your movies wide distribution, but by and large they aren't going to get your movies remembered or enshrined.

That's not high-falutin' talk either, the data backs it up: around 43% of audiences were still interested in the average Disney movie 5 months out from release. For Netflix, it's <1%. And no, it's not just because Netflix released more movies than any other distributor, though that certainly doesn't help; for the period analyzed, Netflix only released around 20-ish more movies (out of over 100) than the nearest competitors, Sony and Universal, both of which also handily beat Netflix in terms of audience retention. It's not even like the wider-distribution is at least getting smaller indie movies wider viewing; Nielsen data shows that Oscar movies are just as underseen on Netflix as they were in theaters.

And Netflix themselves knows it. They know they need theaters for cultural impact, not to mention better monetization.

That doesn't mean Netflix is all bad, and it does mean that certain movies will get greater recognition than they might've in the theater (star-driven dramas are a great example, as are YA films). I don't necessarily agree with Jenkins that all movies released to streaming are awful, either. But it's clear now that despite wider distro, Netflix's distribution model has its own substantial drawbacks.

 

[Nick]

Not sure why this is gatekeeping, there are 12,000 cinemas in the US and the areas that don't have one handy aren't exactly going to have streaming-friendly internet speed.

But what's wrong with both? Why does it have to be either or? More movies are getting made because of streaming, meaning more people are getting paid, and more people are getting to see their ideas fully realized. Netflix and Amazon (others also, but those two especially) have given the green light to many original projects that never would have gotten made if the studio was thinking about theatrical sense and ROI. With streaming, they look at the movies as assets that draw in subscribers, which makes up for many of them being unknown properties.

On the other hand, Free Guy is an example of an original movie that is doing very well in theaters and of course the movies based on IP continue to be the dominant forces.

 

[SailwiththeTide]

The only reason I saw her Wonder Woman movies because they were on HBO Max. The thing is they were not that good and I get Directors need their egos stroked by hight BO numbers but the game has changed. There is a place for streaming movies just like there was a place for movies to be developed for cable like FX, AMC and Lifetime which is ironically where Jenkins got her start.

 

[Grabnar]

Army of the Dead, Without Remorse, The Tomorrow War, Luca,

Not exactly a list of movies that I would've been happy to pay money to see in theaters...

 

[Nick]

Not exactly a list of movies that I would've been happy to pay money to see in theaters...

Say what you will, but in a non-pandemic time, Army of the Dead probably cleans up during nicely over maybe a Presidents Day weekend or something at the very least. Luca almost definitely would've been a pretty big success, too. Without Remorse and The Tomorrow War were both pretty bad, but both had the star-power and Without Remorse specifically had a great trailer so I could've seen that doing some solid enough business.

I just picked 4 random, high-profile films from this past year. To look at another movie, Coming 2 America is a film that probably was probably better off on streaming. It got a huge amount of viewership over the first weekend on Amazon, but as far as theaters go, even for a sequel, I never bought into this being something that people were really clamoring to see, especially something that needed a Christmas release date like it originally had for theaters.

I can flip an argument around though and say something like Free Guy would've never been as big of a hit on streaming as it was in the theaters. Say they did what they just did with Vacation Friends and released Free Guy on Hulu in the US and on Disney+ Star internationally. You're reaching a large audience, yes, but Disney+ isn't fully rolled out worldwide yet, so that's going against it, and also, a movie like Free Guy just seems to have benefited from word of mouth and being the only movie in theaters whereas on streaming, a new movie comes out every week and streaming movies are quickly forgotten about (so in this case, I understand Jenkins' argument more).

It all goes back to me saying - why does it have to be one or another? Some movies are great popcorn movies that are good movies to be that new movie every week on streaming, but if you're aiming to be more than that, than that's what the theaters are for.